Saturday, December 27, 2008

AllAllan's Top Ten List for 2008


Inspired by a suggestion from avid AllAllan reader, supporter & contributor, Professor John W. Kercheval, III, what follows is my selection of the top 10 AllAllan blogs/trades/picks from 2008. My selection process was a subjective evaluation based on results, timeliness, character and substance, all of which were determined by me on Christmas Day, 2008. In true David Letterman fashion, here they are, in reverse order and culminating with what is probably the most important piece I've ever written.

Enjoy.


Note: All returns, unless otherwise indicated represent the gains from the opening price the day after the blog in question was published to the highest extreme price, high for buys, low for sells subsequent to publication. If anyone has a problem with that determination, please provide a link to your own blog.


AllAllan's Top Ten List for 2008



Number 10

July 6th: Buy SRS On the next day, SRS opened at 108.83 and reached a high of 240.27 on November 21st, for a gain of 120%. I didn't get out at top tick, but I did get out not long after based on a simple trailing stop. But this is what was possible, depending on your exit strategy.



Number 9

June 19: Buy HGYS Next day HYGS opened at 1.05 and one week later, on my birthday, July 2nd, hit a high of 2.45, for a gain of 133%. As with SRS, this one got trailed out soon after trading at it's high, based on a theory that doubling your money in a week mandates a tighter stop then usual on at least half of your position.


Number 8

June 22: Buy FSYS This was the Louis Navellier teaser that was discovered and communicated over my blog as a, "$32 Fuel Conversion Stock to $64 by July 7″. Next open was 36.37 and it traded as high as 61.24 on August 19, for a gain of 68%. I know it's gain was smaller then the two above it, but, it was a much cooler pick.

The above three picks exhibit what is possible from trading, depending upon personal trade management. I don't claim, nor do I expect anyone to pocket the entire gains posted above. But that doesn't diminish the value of the trade ideas at the time they were given. I supply the ideas, you do what you will with them. Capturing half the maximum potential is a realistic approach to these picks, especially when they are so front loaded with gains.


Number 7

Feb 19, Apr 1 & Apr 15: Buy NNVC There were a lot of write-ups on NNVC, but lets face it, I was banging the table to buy NNVC back in February when it traded as low as 0.39. By the time I posted my Feb 19th piece, it was trading at 0.51 (on April 1st it was 0.53 and April 15th 0.63) and ran all the way to 1.78 on June 18. That represents gains as high as 250% in just a few months.

As you know, I don't trade NNVC and have only bought additional shares this year, not sold any. But I know some readers fancy themselves good enough traders to trade in and out of NNVC and still be in it when it quadruples overnight on some news event. I may be good, but am not that good to expect I can trade it and will be lucky enough to be long when some blockbuster news hits and a triple digit percentage windfall hits. Still, the traders among you had a good one here.

Number 6

June 4th: Wings Win!

Detroit Red Wings win their 4th Stanley Cup in the past ten years

Detroit Red Wing fans in Phoenix:






Number 5

July 7: Sell POT It is so hard to find good pot these days and forget about finding anything close to the nickel and dime bags anymore. But, one could have shorted Potash of Saskatchewan
on the open, July 8th, at 204.90 and ridden it all the way down to it's lows on Dec 5th at 47.54 for a gain of about 330%. Even if you are still holding short at 67 and change, your return is just over 200%. Primo by any standards.






Number 4

July 28: Sell AAPL


A late July sell at 162 has led to a decline all the way down to 79 on December 5th, for a return of 46%. Again, 46% is less then half of some of the other Top Ten picks, but Apple Computer was such a darling stock early this past year, touted far and wide, including James of Buffoonery the Cramer, that sniping 46% on the short side seems to me to be a lofty achievement.


Note: Advanced GET is showing that as of December 25th prices have completed a complete five waves sequence down for Apple and the false bar stochastic is in an area where it can turn up and trigger a Buy signal.

Number 3

October 11: Invincible
A personal note, because life takes some strange turns and because passion needs an outlet, in one form or another. Five years of upheaval reduced to five stanzas......and yet it still won't let go. All the while this blog has chronicled my journey, serving as a loyal and trusted friend in some of the darkest moments. Invincible brings the saga current.


I am no longer invincible.
The strength that came by her,
Feeling, touching, loving her
And in a moment, losing her
Gone, gone, gone.

In the vigil left behind
Treading water
Not daring to stop kicking
Not wanting to go on.

Drifting, drowning
In a narrow wake of time
No longer caring
No longer mine.

Hope and dreams
Silhouette
Against the northern sky;
Breathing softly,
Her heart upon me,
Gone, gone, gone.

I am no longer invincible.
Falling melancholy,
Down, down, down.




Number 2

Sep 10: Crash Warning

Sell, Sell, Sell!

QID 42-----> 88
SDS 70-----> 133
DXD 49-----> 86

In double beta ETF's gains of 100%. In underlying options on the QQQQ gains of 200% rolled over for more gains of 200% and rolled over for yet more 200% gains.

Perhaps one of my greatest calls of all time, what was I thinking? The easy part was recognizing a culmination of a lot of technical analysis, most notably Elliott Wave, Triangles and a host of fundamental factors converging on the market as a Perfect Storm. The hardest part was going public with what I feared was upon us.

In four years of writing this blog, not once, not once, have I used the word "crash" to describe what I saw coming in any time frame. Early September changed all that and introduced a new tool to address the big picture, The Elliott Wave Principle. Going forward, we will integrate Waves in our shorter term analysis, along with Advanced GET, my software tool for exploiting Waves by isolating specific trading patterns and larger, tradable themes in the markets.




Number 1

My top trade for 2008 and maybe my most important blog ever:


November 2, 2008: Barack Obama replaces George Bush as President of the United States.

"I see the world embracing this man, a symbol of all that is good about the United States, honored that he and I are both Americans. Generation after generation are standing in line to hear his voice and listen to his words. He and they understand together the meaning of hope. I can no longer hide in my cocoon of indifference, withdrawn into the sullen void of, 'They are all a bunch of crooks.'

"Because this one, he is different, because this one, he reaches that little boy of ten, because this one makes this man in his fifties feel that he can make things better with a single vote, because of this, I am voting Tuesday, for Barack Obama."


My best wishes to everyone for a Happy and Prosperous New Year



A


Bonus Selection

Best Holiday of 2008 - Thanksgiving

Alana & Sarah in driveway before their Thanksgiving Day run
















15 comments:

Mike said...

It was a great year Allan...thanks.

-Mike in San Antonio

Mike said...

And from the Comments area...a whole other List of 10 could be constructed.

Here's a favorite of mine from your December 7th entry...responding to a new surfer at your site:

"Soak up as much reality as is possible and there is nothing as real as price movement. The less baggage between you and price movement, the easier it is to navigate your course to success."

-Mike

Anonymous said...

Yes , Thanks and Happy New Year Allan.....maybe I should start smokin POT, Gary

Anonymous said...

Allan, what other 2-3 bitotechs are you holding that in your opinion offer the best potential?

defenestration said...

hmm 330% on a POT short? wtf are you smoking? I assume you know that it is mathematically impossible to get >100% return on a short. Should be ~76.8% return - and similarly that'd be ~51.2% return on the AAPL short

Anonymous said...

To all:

If I (we even) take nothing away from these blogs and technical discussions, I have at least enjoyed them. Life isn't all about making big money, having the biggest house, fastest cars....it's about being happy and enjoying the ride.

Learning through everyones experiences here (including failures) has been enlightning and I am hoping that one day I can be as intelligent and savvy as some of you. Until that day, I am happy to be enjoying the ride with some of you though we'll never meet. I thank everyone for their input and especially Allan for bringing us all together and his fantastic commentary and teachings.

Thanks again.

Happy New Year to ALL!

- PSU Eric

Anonymous said...

Eric:

Life IS all about making big money, having the biggest house, fastest cars... and HOT women.

GO STANFORD CARDINAL!
BTW, I drive a Rolls-Royce.

Allan said...

Re: returns on short sales

margin required (50%) @ 204.90 = 102.50
points gained on sale @ 47.54 = 156.96
divide points gained by margin = 153.14%

So we're both wrong.

Source: A text book treatment of calculating returns on non-traditional portfolios
G.D. Hancock,
College of Business Administration, 8001 Natural Bridge Road, St. Louis MO, 63121-4499, United States

Anonymous said...

C'mon man, who with a Rolls Royce actually drives it? Unless you have a Drophead and now we're talking show and prove.

However, if this is true, are you hiring? :)

-PSU Eric

Anonymous said...

I bought a used Silver Spirit III
and retrofitted it with the light boost turbocharging system from the RR Flying Spur.

That's 6.75 turbocharged Litres pulling a 5000 pound car. I also upgraded the suspension with that of the Flying Spur.

Cost: about $80,000.

With all THAT under the hood why would I want anyone else driving it?

BTW, Allan knows me well. He knows my car. I'm not joking.

GO STANFORD CARDINAL!

Anonymous said...

I had a Rolls Royce...but I had a Driver that drove me everywhere...It was like riding in the back of a 1949 Ford pickup, felt every bump in the road. The driver hated the junk, quit,I sold the heap and now I happily drive myself in a wonderful Camry that never feels a bump and is 0 on the ostentatious scale.I hated people looking at me in the Rolls heap, pointing and laughing.I finally Grew Up!! Gary

Anonymous said...

What's better than a nice turbo spooling!? I would drive it myself too. I can't be too mad at you for that.

Please tell me that you changed those horrible wheels though! The 93-94's have a great body but the wheels aren't right (IMHO).

Enough pissing contest, get back to vacation! :)

-PSU Eric

Anonymous said...

Eric:

You are correct but did no go far enough.

ALL the wheels on RRs are cosmetically lousy.

When they first introduced the "Flying Spur" they added a whole new suspension that included stiffer shocks, stronger springs and new wheels that actually look good.

The "Flying Spur" had short run, but it was just a "souped up" Silver Spur anyway. They continued the turbo mods as an option, including wheels until the Spur ended its run circa 1999 and was replaced with the V12 Silver Seraph.

Mine is a Silver Spirit, which is just a shorter version of the Spur- less back seat room.

But the engine and engine bay were the same size so I could easily retrofit the whole turbo and suspension system with no problem.

I even wrote to the guys in Crewe, UK and told them I did this through EuroMototorcars, and they agreed, at no charge, to fashion a new rear name plate for me, it says "Flying Spirit".

BTW, mine is a Silver Spirit III only 211 ever made in history.

But The Silver Spirit II had a long run. You can find those things on ebay motors, with very low mileage for like 20K-25K. The mods were about 13K. So you can do this pretty cheap if you want to.

John

GO STANFORD CARDINAL!

Tapan said...

Nice. Can you list your 2009 picks?
Also can you post the ones that went negative.
TD
http://inquisitiveaboutfinance.blogspot.com

defenestration said...

Thanks for the response Allan.

I guess it's up to you as a trader or portfolio manager to determine what type of return you're most interested in calculating, and obviously this type of analysis will be closely tied to your risk management.