Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Trap door



Here is my "You Are Here" ( see arrow) map of the markets tonight. Note that 5 waves down ended November 24 to end Wave 3 down. There has been a three wave rally since that low, labled A-B-C covering the past week or so. C may have ended today, or may end tomorrow, or could extend into next week. The take away is that once C is complete, Wave 4 up is complete and Wave 5 of 5 down will commence to new lows, under 7500 on the DJI and maybe way, way under 7500.

This is a good example of how I use Elliott Wave. The market will do whatever it wants to do, but I have identified a typical three wave pattern that is often a prelude to an new impulsive wave to the opposite direction. It's these wonderful impulse waves that we lay in wait for and that is where you will find me in the coming days.

A

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

wondering wheter Wave 5 of 5 down
would take nnvc with it or shouldn't i think in this way?
serge

Allan said...

serge: you shouldn't be thinking this way, first, i can be wrong about new lows, second, nnvc is in it's own world with a plethora of news due out in the coming weeks, any of which could propel these shares regardless of overall market conditions.

Anonymous said...

Allan,
Global Rabies Treatment May be Possible with NanoViricides Drugs ... Breaking Biology News(10 mins):December 2008 Geology and GSA Today media highlights ...

Should be behind of this propel?

http://www.bio-medicine.org/tag/NanoViricides/

serge

Anonymous said...

Hi Allan,
I dont post here very often, but I feel very strongly the same way you do about the technical situation. I pulled the trigger today when the $Comp broke below 1450 with a 3X short ETF on large caps (BGZ), which hedges somewhat some of my long positions. A trip to 1200 on the $comp would be great but I sure hope that we don't drop below the 2002 lows...
what a market...
Thank you for the quality of your posts.
GL to all.

AR.

Anonymous said...

How does a single down day constitute a wave (B)?

Anar said...

3X Funds (Very, very fast moving):

BEAR: FAZ (Russell Financials), ERY(Russell Energy), TZA(Russell 2000 Index), BGZ (Russell 1000 index)

BULL: BGU, TNA, ERX, FAS

:)

big $$ to make in those

Singlengle said...

The car makers could be that last leg down, then the battery cars come out and oil is cheap so we can buy new battery operated cars. You can always use gas for the long trips. Heck the drug makers are still happy and and making new ones all the time. And we'll still need metals and all the other stuff.

Wayne said...

Hey Allan & other Market Club users,

Has anyone ever seen instances where MC generates a green AND a red triangle on the same bar? For instance on a daily chart, if the last generated triangle was red, then what would happen if the price action went above the prior three-day hi, then below the prior three-day lo, all within the same trading day?

Similar question for the weekly bars (a more likely scenario since you have five days to take out prior 3-week hi/lo triggers).

I've never noticed any instance of this for the few ultraShort ETF's I looked at, but could be someone's seen this on another ticker. It could be that MC only allows one (the 1st-occurring) triangle per bar.

Thanks,
Wayne