Buy & Holding Long Term Trends

The stock market is a marathon for longer term investors. The  Buy & Hold crowd was popular in the late 20th Century before being wiped out in the 2000-2002 debacle on Wall Street.  Perhaps no group better then these conservative investors can benefit more from the trend models.  We can describe it as "Buy & Holding Long Term Trends."  Lets take a look at few Weekly Trends that we follow on the private e-mail list:

NNVC Weekly Trend Model

BIDU Weekly Trend Model

 

GORO Weekly Trend Model

REE Weekly Trend Model

VXX Daily Trend Model

FIND SOMETHING THAT WORKS.

THEN TRADE IT.

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Three new names

I gave these three new names to my subscribers over the weekend.  As I wrote at that time,

These three names are HIGHLY SPECULATIVE and depart from the usually conservative nature of our Trend Following methodology. It's possible that all three can be cut in half in week, a day, or an hour.  Conversely, all three could soar, doubling or tripling, or even more in a week, a day, or an hour. HOW we make money here is no less important then MAKING MONEY. We've seen that the Trend Models work i.e. they make money, so we are allowed to take a flier, or two, or in this case three, every once in awhile.

Mega Uranium - MGA (Toronto Exchange) / MGAFF (Pink Sheets)
Pelangio Exploration - PX.V (Venture Exchange) / PGXPF (Pink Sheets)
Golden Predator - GPD.TO (Toronto Exchange) / GPRXF (Pink Sheets)

Mega Uranium

Pelangio

Golden Predator

NNVC - Buy Signal

For what seems like an eternity, NNVC has been on a Daily Sell Signal.  Things look to be changing today:

NNVC Daily Trend Model

If NNVC closes today above $1.08 it will generate its first Buy signal since August.  Although not perfect, these Buys on NNVC have been very good, some leading to excellent returns.

On the fundamental side, here is a recent quote from Patrick Cox who writes, Breakthrough Technology Alert:

NanoViricides is on the precipice of a mammoth breakthrough — they hold what is likely the cure to all worldly viruses.  In combination with that, NanoViricides holds a virtual license to profit through the FDA voucher system.

Best of all, the story hasn’t hit the mainstream media yet and your opportunity to join this transformational move is still here.

Incidentally, we know that small biotechs are particularly subject to irrational vacillations. It’s inevitable that this company will be bouncing in weeks and months to come. Right now, however, almost nobody knows what I’ve said in this report. If you plan to buy, be patient and pick up stock when prices are down.

If you jump in and bid the price of this small cap up too high, it will attract attention and the bargains could be gone for good. And please don’t settle for short-term gains of a few hundred percent. The long-run potential of this technology is far, far greater — and today’s opportunity truly is once in a lifetime.

Back when NNVC was under $0.50 I suggested that buying $10,000 worth of NNVC will be worth $1,000,000 by 2014.  Development of the company's anti-viral platform in the past year is consistent with that forecast.  If anything, I am way low as NNVC is getting ready to become front page news in every medical journal across the world.  Again from Patrick Cox:

Next on the list is HIV. Back in 2008, spectacular results were announced for HIVCide in Israel. Based on the findings there, it was suggested that the company had attained a “functional cure.” This is due to the drug’s ability to decrease the amount of circulating virus and to suppress the virus exiting infected cells in which it was sequestered. HIVCide should allow an affected person to live an essentially normal life, as virus load is so low that the virus cannot be transmitted.

Want to put a price on the worth of an antiviral that conquers HIV?

Even I am not so bold.


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NNVC - news

NanoViricides, Inc. Reports Dramatically Extended Survival for FluCide™ Treated Animals in an Influenza Lethality Study

WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB) (the "Company") reported today that its FluCide™ drug candidates demonstrated dramatically improved survival in animals administered a lethal dose of influenza virus. Animals treated with all of the different influenza nanoviricide drug candidates survived for dramatically longer periods as compared to Tamiflu® treated animals.

Animals treated with the best of the optimized FluCide nanoviricide drug candidates survived greater than twice as long (18.1 days) as opposed to the animals treated with Tamiflu (only 7.8 days). In a previous study, the Company had reported that animals treated with the then best anti-influenza nanoviricides survived for as long as 13.9 days in the same animal model.

We are extremely happy with the substantially improved performance achieved in our optimization efforts,” said Randall Barton, PhD, Chief Scientific Officer of the Company, adding, “An increase in dosage is now likely to lead to total survival even in this completely lethal virus challenge model.”

“Our Influenza Program is progressing satisfactorily towards a pre-IND submission to the FDA in the near future,” said Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, CEO of the Company.

Comment:  It would be nice to see the stock pop, even double on this news, but whatever it does matters less then the significance of this development.  Put away your trading hat for a moment, no, put it back on, and realize how this relates to NNVC's progress from a speculative, unheard of, shot in the dark biotechnology company to becoming one of the big boys on the block.

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Something so right

You can listen to a song a hundred times and never really hear it.  Then a random fluke of fortune changes everything.  On the 101st time it finds its way through and it resonates. 

There is an inspired serendipity to my life. A theme that underlies all that I have done, every decision I have made and every path I have traveled.  On Halloween a year ago, that instinct came alive and my wandering found a home.

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How can you not trade this?

 

VXX_60 Trend Model

VXX_240 Trend Model

VXX Daily Trend Model

Let me count the ways:

(1) Just trade VXX itself for Long & Short;  

(2) Trade XXV (inverse VXX) for VXX-Shorts;

(3) Trade SPY or QQQQ  inversely for VXX signals, i.e. SPY LONG for VXX SHORT signals.

Forget about "correlation with VIX," just look at the Trend Models.

XXV Daily Trend Model

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SPX Weekly

The SPX_Weekly charts below have embedded upon them low and high volatility trend models.  The volatility settings determine how sensitive the trend model is to price volatility.  Higher volatility settings react to smaller moves in price to reverse trend, whereas the lower volatility settings require more price movement before reversing. 

SPX Low Volatility Trend Model

SPX High Volatility Trend Model

Both trend models do a fine job of capturing major trends in the market.  The trade off is better entries/exits from the higher settings, but better accuracy and less trading from the lower settings.  In either case, the trend models add a tradable big picture advantage.

National Treasure

Bob Dylan is one of the most influential figures of the 20th century, musically and culturally. Dylan was included in the Time 100: The Most Important People of the Century where he was called "master poet, caustic social critic and intrepid, guiding spirit of the counterculture generation. Howard Sounes, biographer of Bob Dylan, placed him among the most exalted company when he said, "There are giant figures in art who are sublimely good—Mozart, Picasso, Frank Lloyd Wright, Shakespeare, Dickens. Dylan ranks alongside these artists."

I know two people who have seen Dylan in concert within the past few weeks.  I saw him in Boston circa 1975 as part of his "Rolling Thunder Review" tour.  At the beginning of the second set, just after intermission, Dylan stood behind a full length curtain with Joan Baez.  As the curtain began to rise it revealed the duo singing, "Diamonds and Rust."  Those chills resonate with me to this day as I recall that moment in my life...and his.  Only a year away from 70 he is still touring, a living, breathing, singing, national treasure.

Shadows are falling and I’ve been here all day
It’s too hot to sleep, time is running away
Feel like my soul has turned into steel
I’ve still got the scars that the sun didn’t heal
There’s not even room enough to be anywhere
It’s not dark yet, but it’s getting there.

Gold Mania

This gold mania reminds me of the tech mania of the late 1990's that culminated in the great tech bubble top of 2000.  As you may recall, that ended very badly.  This time around, there are our trend models, so let's have a look at GLD:

GLD Hourly Trend Model

GLD Daily Trend Model

It's the Daily Model that is the key here.  Sitting right on the trend line, either it finds support or knives through for a SELL Signal. The hourly model above is suggesting the latter.

GLL is the double short ETF for gold and as shown on the chart below, has just reversed LONG:

GLL Daily Trend Model

Bottom line, there are reasons to be cautious on gold right now, but unless and until the Daily GLD Model reverses SHORT, the intermediate uptrend is still intact.

US Dollar - UUP

The US Dollar is inversely correlated to most markets.  Thus a rise in the dollar correlates to a drop in stocks, gold and anything else that is priced in dollars.  Lets take a look at a chart of UUP, the bullish ETF for the dollar:

UUP Daily Trend Model

Five waves down, a break-out gap above the trend regression channel and an imminent LONG signal from the trend model.  If UUP runs back to just the late August high at $24.22, it gains 7.00%.  But, with minimal premium on UUP calls, a 7.00% rise will likely generate triple digit gains on in-the-money call options, subject only to the call's expiration month.  I wouldn't look at any expiration closer then December, but next March might make the best cents (sorry)  giving plenty of time for the dollar and UUP to turn up and run.

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