Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Three Weeks

I received this from Ilene today and wanted to post it before the close today (Wednesday).

Hi, Allan!

Here you go: Bird flu projected to be in Alaska in three weeks. Scary, this may energize the bird flu stocks as they've been quiet lately. West cost, by autumn -- that's us!


As for which stocks might catch a bid on any new bird flu scares, Ilene says her top picks are: AVAN, AVII, BCRX and GNBT.


A

23 comments:

holly healey said...

I really need NNVC to turn around. Any guesses as to when?

Holly

Anonymous said...

NVAX is the winner, it'a one of the few companies that has started making money.

It's not too expensive.

Allan said...

Re: NNVC

News-sensitive; we never know when the next press release will send NNVC up 30-50%, we just know it will.

Re: NVAX

No argument here, we suggested NVAX as one of our first brid flu plays at $1.49, now $7.55 and with no plans to sell a single share.

A

Allan said...

Re: AVII

Nice going Ilene, AVII popping 10% this morning on good news from the clinic, or, on your recommendation here yesterday, hard to tell these days....

A

ilene said...

AVII - yeh, I think people got real excited when I mentioned it; I'm not going to say I word about NNVC -- I want the car, so lets just hope. - Ilene

Konrad said...

A -

How do you recommend to enter the uranium plays that are not traded in the US. MGA.V, LAM.V . I use Ameritrade.

K

ilene said...

I did forget NVAX, this is a comment today from briefing.com

NVAX Novavax -- thinking there could be a link to GSK news (7.75 +0.24)

We're thinking that there could be a tie between Novavax and the
GlaxoSmithKline human bird flu trials announced earlier today (see 6:28
comment) GSK has started a human trial program with two H5N1 pandemic
flu vaccines. Co expects later this year to start initial clinical
trials for influenza vaccines based on cell cultures, instead of eggs.
BriefingTrader.com: We're speculating that Novavax might possibly
benefit from those trials, and that GSK could use NVAX technology in
some capacity. We note that NVAX and GSK have worked/are working
together on an NVAX vaccine to prevent the Hepatitis E virus and other
viruses. We are checking w/ additional contacts to see if a bird flu
collaboration also makes sense.

Allan said...

K - Can't buy them electronically, have to use something called a "telephone" that connects with a "broker" who has an "international desk." Nasty business.

A

Konrad said...

A - Thanks, I haven't done that in so long that it actually threw me off. Great times we live in...

K

holly healey said...

Ilene,

I think that you have to select companies with a min market cap of 500 million to win the car. I want to win the car too, but I don't think we can put NNVC on our list!
Holly

curt504 said...

K and others. For FA reasons STM.V looks good based on reading CA uranium sites. The charts look good for IRNG.PK and JNN.V.

My uranium watch list:

URNZ.OB STHJF.PK URE.TO EMC DEN.TO IUC.TO JNN.V ASXSF.OB IRNG.PK STM.V LAM.V CCJ MGA.V ASXSF.OB FRG NWTMF.OB PALAF.PK UAEYF.PK URIX.OB CCJ USEG IRNG.PK MMU V.FV NAG.V USU CCJ

curt

Anonymous said...

Found this on the drudge report late today:

http://www.forbes.com/lifestyle/health/feeds/hscout/2006/03/30/hscout531827.html

>>Bird-Flu Pandemic Would Likely Start in California
03.30.06, 12:00 AM ET
THURSDAY, March 30 (HealthDay News) -- If a bird-flu pandemic does hit the United States, it may well start in California and spread across the country in just two to four weeks.

And the best way to slow its spread would be to have workers stay at home.

That's the scenario drawn from results of a computer model created by researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health's Fogarty International Center. And while the results of that computer model should be interpreted with caution, it is based on data from ordinary flu epidemics for the last three decades, said study author Dr. Mark A. Miller, associate director for research at the center.

"The unique feature of this model is that it challenges conventional wisdom, which says that flu is spread by children bringing it back to the household," Miller said. "That may be true at the household level, but regionally it is spread by adults."

That's why measures to keep people at home could slow the spread of infection, Miller said. Another finding in the study is that states with large populations, such as California, are more likely to reach epidemic levels of the flu at the same time than less-populous states, where transmission tends to be more erratic, he said.

So California, the most populous state, would be the most logical place for a pandemic to start, Miller said. Another factor pointing toward California is that bird -- also called avian -- flu is expected to arrive from Asia, he said.

As for the speed of spread, the estimate is based on ordinary epidemics. "What we see is that epidemics with more pathogenic viruses spread more quickly, two to four weeks versus five to seven weeks for less pathogenic viruses nationwide," Miller said.

The findings appear in the March 31 issue of the journal Science.

The Fogarty researchers used epidemiological data on seasonal flu epidemics that have occurred yearly in the United States since 1972. They connected that information with data from the Census Bureau and the federal Department of Transportation, looking at variations in yearly epidemics from state to state and links with local flows of people to workplaces.

Bird flu is pathogenic, but it does not yet spread easily from person to person; close exposure to an infected bird is needed to cause a human infection. The danger will come when, and if, a mutation makes human-to-human transmission easy.

Since 2003, the H5N1 bird flu virus has been detected in 45 countries in Africa, Asia, and Europe. More than 100 people have died after coming into contact with infected poultry.

The model developed by the Fogarty researchers can go just so far in predicting what might happen if such a mutation occurs, Miller said. This model notably doesn't include previous pandemics, just ordinary epidemics, and a pandemic might have different characteristics, he said.

Still, the model can help plan for ordinary, predictable epidemics by showing how they start and spread, Miller said. It's also not the first of its kind, he said: "We did a similar model to explain the spread of measles."

Anonymous said...

Ilene
Any comment on DSCO's release. The market doesn't seem to like it, but these results for the adult portion. Any impact on neonatal testing?
thanks

Allan said...

Ilene is about to listen to the conference call which should add a lot more prespective to yesterday's news. As of now, Ilene was prepared to Buy any meaningful decline this morning, subject only to anything new in the conference call. Hopefully she'll post something later this today.

A

ilene said...

I'm having a hard time hearing the conference call, it sounds like they were affected by having small numbers of patients in each subgroup, as the trial was not powered for statistical significance ,and they ended up with a disporportionate number of organ failure patients in the surfaxin group. Wouldn't expect those patients to have positive results. I think they have gained a lot of information for designing the next trial -- for better patient selection, starting the drug treatment early - made a difference. Pneumonia was notably responsive to the treatment, but they have just started analysing the data. Want to partner the next trial for ARDS. FDA decision on April 6. - Ilene

ilene said...

Seems like the market is forgiving the lack of overall improval in survivability, understanding that these results are nevertheless good news going forward.

Allan said...

correction - improvement - above

Allan said...

ARDS Results - Lessons Learned
by: md4neon8s (54/M/USA)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 03/31/06 10:01 am
Msg: 35951 of 36007

My prediction was that the trial would be not fully enrolled (only 124 of 160) and that the benefit WOULD NEED TO BE stratified by responders vs non-responders ("those that benefited the most from this purely pulmonary therapy") with further data analysis necessary.
See my 3/25 post:

http://tinyurl.com/ma9kn

The problem with under-enrollment IN a multifactorial disease like ARDS, is that it will make it difficult to sort out what should be the next step in trial design. I think that DSCO should be looking to the successful trial in Pediatric ARDS with Infasurf and consider duplicating this trial that requires only Tracheal Instillation with Surfaxin vs the more complicated (and potentially harmful) BAL procedure. At least add a 4th arm (as has been done with MAS) that includes Instillation rather than BAL. Pediatric ARDS will also dovetail with their stated emphasis initially on Neonatal Critical Care, since our NICU graduates end up in PICU's when they get sick.

Strategies have yet to decided regarding
1)Whether administration by Bronchoscopic Lavage turns out to be superior to plain replacement therapy
2)Whether treating patients with Aerosurf before they end up on a ventilator because they are at Risk for developing ARDS is superior to waiting for ventilator dependence

There are far to many unanswered questions at this juncture, but clearly, DSCO, with a Manufacturing plant dedicated to producing pharmaceutical grade, clinically proven, protein containing, cheap, and aerosolizable Surfactant, is our best hope for advances in Surfactant technology for the foreseeable future.

I am encouraged by the subgroup of responders and it will be interesting to see if these turned out to be the younger patients with infectious ARDS...these are the patients that are dying with Bird Flu, and this might give DSCO the opportunity to release some Surfaxin for a Trial in SE Asia to explore it's effectiveness in this high Mortality Disorder.

Other lessons learned is that the Mortality rate from ARDS with aggressive SOC has been falling, and it is always difficult to prove an effect on mortality in a low mortality condition (unless enrollment numbers are very high). ARDSNET has been under attack in the past for non-standard SOC from Center to Center, which obviously can make conclusions from multicenter controlled trials difficult to analyze:
See:
http://tinyurl.com/loquf

All of this makes approval of Surfaxin in April Critical, so that revenues can start to be generated and focus can move to the multitude of clinical Trials that still need to be conducted. The weight of this FDA Surfaxin for RDS approval needs to be lifted from DSCO management so that they can focus on further development of the pipeline, (most importantly the Aerosurf CPAP & the BPD Trials)
All of course JMO.

This is guy posts on the dsco yahoo message board, and he's very worthwhile reading. - ilene

Mitch said...

From Peter Worden 3/31/2006
AVII went through a period of correction and consolidation following my most recent Worden note (Feb 26). If you took some profits following my last installment this is a good time to reestablish a long position to be sure you're participating. Some robust technical buying appears to be returning and I believe AVII is poised for a significant upside breakout!-PW

Anonymous said...

Allan, I hope all is well with you. Live strong and like Ilene says, life is beautiful, to be enjoyed.

holly healey said...

Re NNVC, I just saw a report released today, 3-Apr-06, (the Pechala's Report by Lubomir Pechala) with a price target for NNVC in the next two weeks of $10.00. It is from Yahoo Finance http://finance.yahoo.com/q/rr?s=NNVC.PK. It costs $10.00 to buy the article and I am leaving the house, so I don't have time to buy/read it until this evening. I am not familiar with this author or this report. Just FYI to all who are invested in NNVC.
Holly

Anonymous said...

Holly, being pro NNVC it was nice to see your misinterpretation of the $10.00 report good for 2 weeks,you were copied on raging bull.I won't tell tho.

Anonymous said...

Also,Allan thank you very much for NNVC at .10,actually rode it down and bought at .085 and still holding all.Helps me in my early retirement,Gary