Sunday, March 19, 2006

Jim Dines

Always engaging, Jim Dines published again this weekend and his view of the markets, the world and investing psychology are a healthy read. Here is a brief review.

Energy Markets

The shift from an oil-based world energy market to a uranium-based world energy market is in full swing. It also is early in the paradigm switch and fortunes will be made investing in this theme in the next 10 years.

Iraq

Dines suggests a novel tactic, he calls, "The Attacking Retreat". Pull back all troops into the empty desert.

"...and when enough Iraqis get killed, including the hotheads, they might realize that we are trying to be a stabilizing force.....It puts America into a no-lose position, because if al-Qaeda took over Iraq they would be right where our military could get at them from out of the nearby desert. But if Iraq successfully took care of its own house, we could then get out of there and stop squandaring American lives and funds."


Gold and Silver

In still early stages of bull markets.

Stock Market

Mixed signals, but impressed with how the market is holding up in spite of all of the havoc in the world. A bump in the road can happen at any time but doesn't expect it to be very long nor deep.

Bird Flu

Holy shit, here it comes. Party on.

"The High State is to do your very best in life and then enter the High State of Detachment from Result."

A

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

How does one invest in the uranium theme, Alan? Did Dines give any examples? I used to read him and having read this, I think I will resubscribe. He is very interesting to me. Holly

Allan said...

Holly, I'm sure Dines would consider any "naming of names" tantamount to a "Low State of Stealing" so I'll simply suggest that the bull market in uranium that he anticipates will be such that any stock with uranium exposure will paticipate in the boom. Throw a dart.

A

Anonymous said...

Just for the record, that was not the intent of my question. My question was broader, actually, and probably not very well thought through. I was wondering how one invests in the uranium theme...one way, obviously, is in publically traded equities. I thought maybe there were other ways ... perhaps commodities futures? or specialized mutual funds. I've been doing some research since I posted my first query to you and I have found some answers. I should research before I post a question like that! I see you have your LLM in tax. Me too. I never practiced however. I got mine from SMU in 1980. I would love to trade for a living as you do. As it is, I just have to take a few key positions and wait it out. Often, your posts trigger a thought process for me that results in a profitable trade. Thank you for all those random moments and profitable trades! Holly

Konrad said...

Similar approach as with Bird Flu then: Some ideas:

STM.V
LAM.V
CCJ
MGA.V
ASXSF.OB
FRG
NWTMF.OB
PALAF.PK
UAEYF.PK
URIX.OB

A - Did I leave any names off that you think should be in the mix? Any favorites?

K

Anonymous said...

I haven't read Dines blog, so forgive me if I raise issues that he might address (BTW Allan, good blog site).

First, I don't think of energy stocks as "trading" stocks, but rather investing stocks (months or years as opposed to days or weeks).

Second, let me state that I'm not against nuclear engery. I think that it's a very safe, clean energy source (The waste issue realy is a solvable problem.). However it's my understanding that there isn't enough uranium available in order to convert over to using a "sufficient" number of nuclear electric generation plants in the U.S. such that they have significant impact on the total energy profile. So we'd be be going down the route of depending on something that isn't really that abundant and that will be depleted (not a bad pun) as we start to depend on it. Not a good strategy. Now, whether or not this is good for the uranium stocks is another question. They indeed might go up - if the government endorses this strategy.

If you think we'd ever really start to move off an oil ecomony in the next ten years or so, I'd invest in wind and coal. Wind because the KW/$ of the latest technology is now comprable to natural gas. Not bad. And coal because we have a lot of it, it can be made very clean burning, and we can always make it into liquid fuel if needed.

BTW, I have my investments in natural gas and oil stocks and funds (no wind power). We still have a oil man as president, and his administration
will still set the tone for the next couple of years.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, no handle left in my previous anonymous ramble.

- Russell......

Anonymous said...

Hey Allan, if Dines thinks gold is a buy, check this one out. (DKGR) Its a real PENNY stock!

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060317/0113708.html

curt504 said...

thanks Konrad for that uranium watch list! Most have a great looking short term and long term chart!! Yum!

curt

curt504 said...

I did some searching on Dines and interviews of him and found
http://www.stockinterview.com/archives.html
There's several stock sites with Dines references.

Now the hard part, sorting what the best valuation picks are from this list.

URE.TO EMC DEN.TO IUC.TO JNN.V ASXSF.OB IRNG.PK STM.V LAM.V CCJ MGA.V ASXSF.OB FRG NWTMF.OB PALAF.PK UAEYF.PK URIX.OB CCJ USEG IRNG.PK MMU V.FV NAG.V USU CCJ

Lots of touting going on for IRNG.PK and PRs.


???
tnx curt

David M Gordon / The Deipnosophist said...

"... Dines suggests a novel tactic, he calls, 'The Attacking Retreat'

Hi, Allan,

"Novel tactic"? Perhaps, but certainly not unique.

Long ago, the Parthians perfected a military tactic called the Parthian Shot. While retreating on horseback at full gallop, they would look back over their shoulders, and shoot arrows at their quickly-approaching enemy.

This Parthian Shot gives rise to our current phrase, parting shot.

DEBBY said...

Have been in CCJ for over a year. I can recommend it if you have a strong stomach and don't mind the big fluctations. It fell back today over $2, but it will come back. It recently did a split. It's the best of the big companies unless you want to go to Austrailia. USU is a play on the refining which I also own. My favorite of the juniors is UAEYF.PK. They have good resources and the people in charge are superior. Stock has more than doubled since company was renamed. It has plenty of run to run.

debby

Greg Reiman said...

Hi A:

I cannot resist a least providing this link to Christopher Hitchens' eloquent essay that should dissuade you of any thoughts of an "Attacking Retreat" in Iraq.
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110008120

As to Uranium plays, I like IUCPF in Canada and EGRAF in Austrailia.
Greg

Anonymous said...

Allan,
Do you think its right to allow people to post picks for free in which many of us pay the Dines Letter for ?

Think about it. You know it isn't right.

Anonymous said...

I pay for several newspapers, including (for example) the New York Times. Yet their news stories and editorials are regularly reported and quoted on the "free" network news. Is there any difference?

What one pays for when one subscribes to a service is the "complete" story, and not just snippets and tips.

-- Jack

Anonymous said...

I think there is one Uranium stock that has emerged as a VERY prominent Junior Company. This company has been actively aquiring exisiting mines and may have them in production within 6-9 months. You need to check out

URA

It is on the venture exchange. The management is VERY solid and has been in the mining industry for almost 50 years. They have seen the last uranium bull and are positioned to take this company much higher.

Today it is at $0.99/share with only 23 million shares outstanding.

Do your own DD.

http://www.stockhouse.ca/comp_info.asp?symbol=URA&table=LIST


See you on the top-side of $20/share.

Babs42