Friday, October 21, 2005

Market Timing

Harry Dent is calling this the last and greatest buying opportunity of the decade. Jim Dines and Don Wolanchuk are also bullish. Robert Prechter is calling for a crash. What's a boy to do?

Market Hulbert posted this column on Market Watch this morning. In short, he is seeing the most bearish sentiment readings in the past six years. His research suggests that these levels of bearish sentiment are there to fade:

"There are no guarantees, however, as contrarians would (or at least should) be among the first to emphasize.

"But to be bearish now, you are in effect betting that average short-term timing newsletter will be right, something that it usually is not."


Sounds like a plan to me.

19 comments:

Ronny said...

Hi Allan,thanks for posting that article.I do know that Prechter's record since the 1987 crash is abysmal.Betting against him is usually a good idea.
Ron

Allan said...

Some GRRRRREAT charts supporting Hulbert's thesis:

http://www.wallstreetcourier.com/pressroom1.htm

A

Ranter said...

add QDEL to the basket ...

they claimed to have an effective test kit for Avian Flu ...

what do you think about the pullback on NNVC, you think it has almost run its course ??? the volume on the pullback seems to be light ...

Allan said...

QDEL has been suggested to me from multiple sources, time to take a closer look.

I bought more NNVC late Friday at $0.30.

A

Ranter said...

also CBMX on its 9/28 PR mentioned they can detect bird flu

http://www.combimatrix.com/pr/092805.pdf

Ranter said...

Allan, do you do trading full time ???
do you know how I can get real time bid-ask for those pinkie stocks ...
my ameritrade only gives me the last trade ...

Anonymous said...

Hi Allan, first of all congratulations for your blog, very good job!
I'm investing from Spain, last week took a look on nanos and discovered NNVC. I think this people's going to reach something great. I'm in and thinking of buying some more if monday stays around ,30. As i read, they're going to have some results for the meeting with the vietnamese. I think the share is going to move up towards 1$ until then, helped by avian flu news. How do you see it?.. and, when you talk of 10$ target, when are you thinking it's going to be, when they get FDA approval i guess..(if they get it).
Thanks for your comments and keep going!

Allan said...

Allan, do you do trading full time ???

Yes, day-trading my own system for over two years now, have retired from the practice of law...."Do what you love, or love what you do."

do you know how I can get real time bid-ask for those pinkie stocks ...

This is the only place I can get bid/ask spreads, but it appears delayed:

http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=nnvc

How do you see it?.. and, when you talk of 10$ target, when are you thinking it's going to be, when they get FDA approval i guess.

Thanks for your kind words. I see the first $1.00 or $2.00 to come from bird flu & related hype, but the rest of the road to $10 will come from application of their technology (successsfully) to cancer and other diseases.

A

Ranter said...

Allan, can you tell me why you buy NNVC on Friday ...

what is the decision making process on this buy ???
is it ourely technical, something you like form the chart ???

Ranter said...

is NNVC in one of these
http://thestockstalker.com/id13.html

Allan said...

Allan, can you tell me why you buy NNVC on Friday

Sorry if this disappoints, it's not exactly rocket science: I wanted to own more of NNVC and it had corrected 50% from it's highs on decreasing volume.

A

Gordo said...

Hi Allan, again from Spain... maybe i missed something... where do you find nnvc products can be useful in cancer treatment? I just readed about flu,HIVS and other virus diseases. I've read different articles and i can remember nothing about cancer...maybe you found something i didn't... please, if it's so, could you tell us where. Thanks a lot for your quick answers.

Gordo.

Allan said...

maybe you found something i didn't... please, if it's so, could you tell us where

I read it here, in an article by Dr. Anil Diwan, President of NNVC and inventor of Theracour, the enabling technology of NNVC's products:

http://www.nanoviricides.com/PITECH-TheBusinessOfNanoTechnology.pdf

A

Ranter said...

Sir, I was really disappointed by your reason of buying more on Friday ... just kidding ...

let's see if the new week will bring some buying pressure ...

Anonymous said...

Allan, LOve the column. nnvc still a buy @ .37?

Allan said...

nnvc still a buy @ .37?

Yep.

A

Anonymous said...

I think it will take more than bird flu news on TV to get this stock moving upwards again. Do you know of any announcements on the horizon?

Ranter said...

bird flu news is enough, you know how serious this can be ...

Anonymous said...

it is serious, but if there is little to no news connecting nnvc with bird flu then there will be little to no move in the stock.