Thursday, November 20, 2008

Are we there yet?

Today was quite the drama in the markets.

The major averages fell through the 2002 lows like a bowling ball off the top ledge of the Sears tower in Chicago in a freezing rain storm on a raw, cold, November afternoon as the Chicago Bears were shut out by the Green Bay Packers 10-0.

Yea, it was one of those days.

Is the bottom in?


What? Do you think I just make this stuff up?

This is the first time since I published Crash Warning in early September that I thought that a bottom of any sorts was possible.

The market will let us know more tomorrow (Friday, November 21) and Monday.

For now, let's just say anything is possible...........including a tradable rally.



Kat said...

Thanks Allan for that comment. The MC triangles on all the major averages seem to show a maximum down score, including the Q's. I suppose if there is a bottoming going on, some counter-trends will show up on the daily charts, in which case I am poised to pull the trigger on my Q's shorts. I notice the algorithms trigger somewhere mid-way through a counter trend move, so obviously you don't catch the exact bottoms or tops of moves. Which is a good thing, as we certainly don't need a holy grail trading system, just one that catches the middle moves effectively. That also makes discipline and diversification an important factor. Not good to be in several ultra short ETF's when they trigger as the counter moves can be vicious. Just some thoughts I thought I'd post out loud.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Yes, Allan, you once again called it.

John K. in DC

Anonymous said...

Darn I wish I had a few hundred bucks and a line to Allan for a day or two, Gary

Anonymous said...


I would assume you would be following the Detroit Lions, correct?

Who cares about the Packers and the Bears?


Anonymous said...

Stanford Cardinals? In what sport again? Is reading or law a sport now?

Man, once Curling and the WSOP (World Series of Poker) got in I guess anything can.

:) :) :)

Relax, I'm just poking, besides next year we will suck at football again losing 3 of our all time greatest receivers (#1, #3, #4, all time in our 122 year program, how's that for an investment?).
But we are the stuff at Volleyball, mens and womens, but the womens is much more "fun" to watch.


Anonymous said...


Oh! Noooo what is happening with NNVC, its falling... Is this a bad thing?


Anonymous said...

NNVC falling is only a bad thing if you don't have some disposable income to purchase it at these newer, lower prices, IMHO.

NNVC is a long position.


A said...

Re: NFL I spent more time picking out those two teams for my poetic licensed metaphor then it took to write the entire blog.

Re: NNVC the best advice I have for shareholders of NNVC is to put it away and stop staring at the screen; you will be richly rewarded.

Anonymous said...

The market will let us know more tomorrow (Friday, November 21) and Monday.
Allan, did the market tell anything today?

shyamt said...

Hats off to you and your accurate predictions.

Anonymous said...

Allen a lot of Biotech are loosing their funding and going bunkrupt. How will it affect NNVC.Is their funding is sufficien for them to survive.

Anonymous said...

It ended with a smile on its face.

Anonymous said...

I forgot your "poetic" element to all of your blogs. Very eloquent.

Do you think you could advise us of your next pick using Haiku?

JK in DC

Anonymous said...

Allan, here is something I've noticed over the last week or so in the major indices. In looking at daily charts I've noticed divergences with RSI, MACD, and Stochastics. The indices have made new lows in Nov but the oscillators have not, they've made higher lows. I thought this might portend a bottom.

Not too long ago you commented that most TA was bull. In your opinion, does this divergence fall into the bull category? Thanks.

Edwardo said...

No bottom, folks! We aren't even close, at least not in terms of price.

oldpig said...

What is the date of this 16 comments? real time? or old?
Please indicate.