Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Cramer's Report Card

I haven't beat up on ole Jim Cramer for awhile, so let's take a quick look-see at his year-to-date progress in his public portfolio. Remember from past pieces, I like to look at what he does, not what he says, to evaluate his worth as a stock picker. His public (for subscription) Action Alerts PLUS portfolio is the closest he comes to a real time track record to gauge his stock picking abilities, or lack thereof.

Year to date, the S&P 500 index is up about 12% and the Russell 2000 index is up a little over 16%. For the same period, Jim Cramer's Action Alerts Plus portfolio is up 3.89%.

That means that the charities that Cramer donates his profits from the portfolio to would have had about an additional $250,000 if Jim had put the portfolio in an S&P index fund at the beginning of the year, or about an additional $360,000 if he had put the money into a Russell 2000 index fund.

So let's give Jimbo a grade for his performance. He didn't lose money in bull market, so we really can't fail him. But he couldn't beat the most mundane of all indexes, the S&P 500, so we can't give him much of a grade above "C". That's leaves a "C" or a "D". Normally, class participation counts, and with Cramer all over the TV and radio, he certainly is in our face enough with his stock opinions to make a case for extra credit for effort.

But, there's the rub. The first rule of medicine and the first rule of investing are the same, First, do no harm. One who bellows his opinions in such a ubiquitous persona owes a duty to the public to first, do no harm. It's one thing to short change a charitable trust by poor performance, quite another to lure an unsuspecting public into a false sense of competency.

Cramer get's a "D", passing, but barely so, Mr. Harvard Hedge Fund Honcho.


22 comments: said...

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Anonymous said...

Why did you sell your NNVC?

Anonymous said...

Anyone know who this may be?

Microcap 10-Bagger Alert
December 3, 2006

Taking a whack at Cisco!

A David vs. Goliath story that can turn your small
investment now into a not-so-small fortune...

Fellow Investor,

I love rooting for the underdog.

Be it football, basketball or a game of tiddlywinks,
I love to see the up-and-comer take it to the champ.

When it comes to investing, I love an underdog, too -
but for a very different reason. When you invest in an
underdog - after you've done all your homework, of course -
you get the opportunity to reap some truly mammoth profits.

The company I'm writing about today is indeed an underdog,
but an underdog only in size, not talent.

You see, this company has engineered and patented a disruptive
new technology that could ultimately take a big bite out of one
of Cisco's core businesses.

If everything works out according to plan, this is a microcap,
nothing's guaranteed, this firm could be a takeover target as a
5-bagger from here. And if management manages to fend off suitors,
we could well see a 10-bagger in 2-3 years.

Get in on the ground floor

The more research we did into this company, the more I found to like:

First off, the company has a low current market value - it's flying
under Wall Street's radar. At less than $1 per share, you can take a
meaningful position without risking a lot of cash.

The company has a low burn rate and low debt. In other words, it's
spending its cash slowly and wisely. This lessens our risk of one of
the dangers of investing in microcaps - a company issuing a ridiculous
number of shares to raise cash.

The management team is top-notch. They've purposely started slow to
avoid a big money drain and have focused on a handful of important,
early-adopter clients to help build momentum.

All in all, things are going extremely well for the company right now.
All they need is more recognition in the marketplace - that's the
catalyst that'll break the game wide open.

You can wait until that time and buy it later for much smaller gains.

Or you can take a little risk capital now and try to belt out a
home run.

I'll explain this breakthrough technology below. Anytime you want the
name and full details, simply click on one of these links to get a
subscription to ChangeWave MicroCap Investor at a special low price.

Flat-out better (and cheaper) than Cisco Systems

This company has perfected and commercialized a new "switch technology"
that blows away the competition, including Cisco Systems.

There's no need to get technical here, so let's use the most basic
"Switches" allow different computing devices on a network, whether
inside a
company or over the Internet, to connect quickly and smoothly.

Without these switches, the networked world as we know it wouldn't even

Cisco is the 800-pound gorilla in the networking world - the bully on
geek playground.

Cisco, along with competitors like Foundry, Force 10, Extreme and
use their weight to push outdated, overpriced equipment on its

Sure, they update the veneer on occasion, adding bells and whistles in
attempt to cover over flaws. But their switches are still based on
architecture that's ill-equipped for the realities of today's world.

And that's where our company steps in.

While entrenched market leaders were reluctant to cannibalize existing
revenue streams, this firm's engineers have perfected the next
switch technology. If you want more detailed science, you'll get it
when you
join me at MicroCap Investor.

But as an investor, here's all you need to know:

This breakthrough technology is to the networking world what personal
were to the world of mainframes. Completely disruptive. The rules all

There's no turning back. This new technology will become dominant. The
question when you're talking about a microcap company is this: Will
these guys
hang tough long enough to reap the huge rewards?

All my analysis says the odds are good they will.

That could mean a buyout by a larger rival and a 5-bagger for us. Or it
could mean a
10-bagger as a stand-alone company in 2-3 years.

And all it takes is a little risk capital to play for a shot at earning
not-so-small fortune.

Blazing fast!

This new switch technology delivers up to 100 times the speed at less
than half the price of older technologies.

How? By using a series of small high-performance switches connected by
fiber-optic links. They behave like a single, direct switch even
they're separated by distances of up to 25 miles!

Here's an analogy from the airlines industry:

This new technology lets packets of information "fly direct." But all
competitors are still stuck in the hub-and-spoke model: a lot of stops
and a lot of waiting around.

So do we really need all that speed?

Well, I've heard through the grapevine that major streaming video
like Google are quietly sneaking into this company's 10-gigabit
switches to address the key issue in streaming video: "latency."

Latency is just a fancy word for delayed packet delivery. In other
words, the
jerkiness you often see in many videos streaming to your computer over
the Internet.

The great thing about this new technology is that it costs just half
that of
competing products while outperforming alternative systems. That's why
CACI and other value-added resellers are including these switches in
their own
systems. No other supplier can compete with the price/performance
value proposition.

As streaming video becomes more prevalent (think of just how many times
Richards' recent tirade was streamed to computers - millions of times!)
need becomes clear.

And if it's good enough for Google, it's good enough for me.

The market is huge

Right now, the potential market for this company's products exceeds $10
per years - and it's growing at double-digit rates, expected to reach
billion by 2010.

So there are plenty of profits to go around.

And it's not all about movies on YouTube. All this growth is being
fueled by
the convergence of voice, data, video, storage, disaster recovery,
computing, 3G mobile services and more.

In fact, this company is also working with the U.S. government to fix
in key networks. So national security is a profit contributor as well.

So is this a sure thing? Of course not.

What we've got is a tiny company with revolutionary switching
technology that is
far superior in price and performance to anything Cisco has to offer.

If that was all that mattered, they would kill off Cisco's switch
business and
quickly become the market leader. But the real world isn't quite that

It's going to take time. One satisfied customer leads to another.
Word spreads. Orders follow. And in the not-too-distant future, if
go at least partly our way, we're sitting on a big pile of profits.

So if you've got a little risk capital and love the thrill of the hunt,
the name and full story online now. Simply click here to try MicroCap
on a no-risk basis at a special low price.

Here's your guarantee: You're going to love ChangeWave MicroCap
Investor, or
I'll give you all your money back.

Take a full 90 days to evaluate the service. If you decide - for
reason - that it's not for you, just cancel anytime in that period,
even the
very last day, and I'll refund every penny of your subscription cost.

For fun and big profits with microcaps,

Toby Smith
ChangeWave MicroCap Investor

Allan said...

Anonymous said...


I searched for two hours and couldn't find the stock he was talking about and you find it in 5 minutes. Thanks Allan.

konrad said...

I thought NNVC was part of your bird flu basket?

Anonymous said...

what about this one?
any idea?

CAUTION: Uncharted investing waters ahead - but
your FREE map through the rocks to mega-profits
is just ahead, too... continued

In the relatively uncharted waters of stem cell profiteering, it's especially critical that you NOT put money into firms without the factors I mentioned above: strong fiscal fundamentals, competent management and a distinct competitive advantage.

And according to Jonathan Kolber, one of the best and brightest tech analysts on Earth, it can be very challenging to separate the wheat from the chaff among the firms that'll soon be vying for supremacy in the stem cell markets...

That's because biotech and stem cell-based medicine are endlessly complex.

Things like proprietary technology, patent infringement, intellectual property and the legality of benefit claims are difficult to fully understand for even the most seasoned tech investor - and nearly impossible for the average investor. Without expert analysis, you'd have to be part scientist (or at least a genius) to grasp the ins and outs and to make the right calls with your money...

Kind of like Jonathan Kolber is, in other words.

That's why I asked him to write a Special Report on this once-in-a-lifetime biotech profit play. It's called "Google" Made Flesh: 30-50 Times Your Money on Tomorrow's Stem Cell Front-Runner. In it, you'll learn all the details about this company:

How its technology works - and what it means for modern life
Why this firm's stem cell technology is immune to political drama
What makes it better (and likely more profitable) than its competitors
Who is running the firm - and why they're the best at what they do
Where it's going to sell its innovative technology for unreal money
When this company will begin to make you rich if you're in on it (it'll be sooner than you might imagine)...
This in-depth Special Report is yours FREE below. Keep reading. But right now, I want to tell you why...

Few companies are even able to be stem cell
competitors, but only one is equipped to revolutionize
the industry - and after RIGHT NOW, it may
never be dirt-cheap again

In case you're not entirely up to speed on stem cells, here's what the big deal is...

Without getting too technical, stem cells are "mother" cells that can change (or be changed by a small number of scientists - like those you're about to meet) into many types of bodily tissue and blood cells. Since I'm not a scientist myself, I'll let this definition from explain it better:

"Stem cells are of embryonic origin and possess the properties of both self-renewal and differentiation into a wide variety of tissue types."

Basically, stem cells are the key to fighting all kinds of degenerative diseases like MS, motor function and movement disorders like Parkinson's disease and others - even spinal cord injuries like what rendered the late Christopher Reeve wheelchair-bound...

In other words, they're a quantum leap across a broad spectrum of medicine.

They're also the key to a quantum leap in your portfolio if you get in now...

Since stem cell-based medicine is relatively uncharted territory, I want to show you a bit about how vast the market for this technology is. Consider:


Big Pharma spends around $8.5 billion developing 400 or more drugs every year. Testing these drugs on various organ tissues represents a large percentage of this cost - and the results aren't always perfect. Remember the VIOXX debacle? That happened because the manufacturer was looking for liver toxicity, like what other painkillers can cause. What it didn't count on (or test adequately for) was heart toxicity, and it cost the company untold billions in liability awards and in its stock price. It also cost thousands of Americans their lives...

Now, imagine what Big Pharma would pay to the only company out there that can offer it a way to test drugs across all eight organ tissue groups. Imagine what such a company could charge for that service - saving a drug maker from just one "VIOXX." The biotech firm Jonathan's recommending in his Special Report is the only firm out there able to offer such comprehensive organ group testing through the magic of its proprietary stem cell technology. At the bargain-basement rate of $5 million per drug (less than even a small court liability award), this company could rake in $2 billion per year from just this one facet of its business.

What do you think THAT would do to its 17-cent stock price?

In the 23 years since he graduated with an MBA from the prestigious Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota, Jonathan Kolber has done just about everything in the technology world.

He has co-founded, managed and VPed several successful technology companies between the early '80s and the late

'90s. He has served as a consultant and editor on countless winning business plans for tech ventures. He has served three separate terms as president of a consulting firm specializing in emerging technology investment. He has guided his and other companies to multiple patents. And he has solicited and directed tens of millions of dollars in venture capital for his own enterprises and others'.

Along the way, he has accrued vast knowledge and experience in fields such as supercomputers and software, nuclear fusion and alternative energy, advanced nutrition and pharmaceuticals, e-commerce and the Internet, robotics, genetics, AI and nanotechnology.

Now he puts all of this expertise to work for one purpose: informing and enriching the readers of his newsletter, The Emerging Capital Report.


Around 10,000 liver transplants happen in the U.S. and Europe each year - at an average cost of around $250,000. Another 20,000 or so are on waiting lists. Sadly, many of these people die, or slowly decay to a shadow of their former selves...

Now, imagine a company that could make a liver-assistance device that utilizes real human liver cells (derived from stem cells) that can continually regenerate themselves while these patients wait for liver transplants - or even eliminate the need for a liver transplant altogether. Now imagine such a device is one-fifth the cost of the average transplant!

Well, such a device is almost a foregone conclusion for this small-cap biotech wonder I've been talking about. Think insurance companies wouldn't jump at the chance to buy into this technology, instead of shelling out for all those livers - and the complications that inevitably follow liver surgery?

Do you think this stock will stay 17 cents a share once word of this innovation gets out?


Everyone knows about Parkinson's disease - one need only look at Muhammad Ali or Michael J. Fox to see the ravages of it at work. Injections of fetal cell tissues have been shown to cure the disease, but it takes roughly 10 such fetuses to generate enough stem cells to treat just one patient. There are at least 50,000 Parkinson's patients in the U.S. and Europe right now...

But what if there were a company that had a way to generate a nearly unlimited supply of uncontaminated stem cells that could successfully treat Parkinson's disease - without using ANY human fetuses? Again, the small biotech company Jonathan told me about has developed exactly this. Over 100 tests of the firm's generated brain neuron cells prove the process works at treating this dreaded disease!

Now, imagine how many patients (or their insurance companies) would buy such a treatment for, say, $25 grand. Early estimates show it's possible at this price...

Another $1.25 billion in revenue to push "BioGoogle's" stock price into profit-land.

These are just a few of the market advantages this stock has over its competitors that you'll learn about in Jonathan's "Google" Made Flesh: 30-50 Times Your Money on Tomorrow's Stem Cell Front-Runner...

There's another one that could dwarf these three (yes, it's in the report, too) - dumping as much as $10 billion into this small tech player's coffers.

And that's exactly what the "in-the-know" analyst I depend on is predicting will soon happen. Want to learn a bit more about him? Keep reading...

Meet the only man I trust for
the real scoop on technologies

For more than 20 years, Jonathan Kolber has lived and breathed technology...

And not just as an analyst. He's been a hands-on pioneer in various technological ventures, some of them life-changing products and services you may have even used yourself - like try-before-you-buy computer software, and those limited-use DVD movies available at places like 7-Eleven, Papa John's and other national chains, just to name a few...

In August 2004, Jonathan Kolber recommended to readers of The Emerging Capital Report a 17-cent stock in a small nanotech/nuclear science company helmed by a Russian defector - a physics whiz groomed by the Kremlin since boyhood for a key role in the Cold War's nuclear standoff...

The firm had developed transformational technologies that could neutralize radioactive pollutants in water supplies, detect modern terror threats like "suitcase nuke" bombs and produce pinhead-sized batteries that last for years by harnessing atomic power.

Earlier this spring, that stock had grown to $1.96 per share, more than 1,100% of its original recommendation price - and with the war on terror and concerns over energy shortages at an all-time high, it's got nowhere to go but up. Those who listened to the most accomplished technology analyst in the investment world have gained more than 10 times their money...

And the stock's STILL a steal. According to Jonathan, there's easily another 1,000% or more in possible profits to be made for those who buy in now. Find out all the details in your FREE Special Report entitled The Technology Stock of the Decade: 50-fold Gains as This Firm Solves Some of the World's Biggest Problems.

Here's why that's important: Because he's been a winner in the tech trenches himself, Kolber has seen a lot of technologies come and go over the last two decades. More than anyone else I've ever met, this fact qualifies him to know the ones with the ability to transform our lives from the ones that are simply fads - or flops.

Beyond this, Jonathan's got the connections mere journalists don't. He knows people like world-renowned inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil, a Nobel laureate economist and a former assistant secretary of the U.S. Department of Energy. He's got contacts on both sides of the tech-investing fence - the money side and the science side - that include a veritable "who's who" of scientists in the chemistry and physics communities...

And they all TALK to him. Plus, he attends just about every cutting-edge technology conference and gathering in the free world, no matter how obscure. That's how he discovers companies like the electro-tech micro-player I've been crowing about since the start of this bulletin.

That's why two years ago, I hired him away from his latest technology venture to be the editor of The Emerging Capital Report investment advisory - to transition from developing new transformational technologies to alerting investors about them.

Now, instead of focusing on just the one segment of the technology market he's trying to compete in (or to pioneer), Jonathan is focused on the entire spectrum of the emerging technology world. This perspective allows him to think three, four, even 10 moves ahead - like a grandmaster in the tech-investing chess game.

From his new vantage point as an investment analyst, he gets to see the entire game board of tech-industry trends and opportunities that open the door for profits that are bordering on obscene - like the small U.S. biotechnology player I mentioned earlier that's about to become the "Google" of the stem cell industry...

I'm talking about venture capitalist-type gains of 20, 50, even 100 times your money or more.

Enough to turn just a few thousand bucks into enough money to retire with - on your own private island. The company I've been telling you about is just one of the dozens Jonathan has alerted his readers to, some of which have already gained over 1,000% in value...

Anonymous said...

some more b-flu news coming?

Anonymous said...

Hi Allan, Any thoughts on Solomon Technology - SOLM.OB? If their patents on hybrid vehicle drive systems holds up in court they might collect royalties from all major auto manufacturers of hybrid powered vehicles. I subscribe to TDL and this is an idea he has mentioned. I am posting it here because I truly admire the way you think and always enjoy reading your take on things. Best regards, Joe.

Allan said...

Hi Joe, thanks for your kind words, not too familiar with SOLM.OB, but sounds like an idea worth pursuing.


Anonymous said...

Here is an interesting option.
Just like SOLM is for cars this co. delivers the powertrain technology for hybrid trains

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Anybody know the name of the 17cent stock Kolbar was talking about

Anonymous said...

That 17c stock Kolber was talking about was Nuclear Solutions OTBCC:NSOL. It's about $1 now.

Anonymous said...

I love the Tobin Smith emails - the last one left less clues than usual. I had come up with Patriot Scientific because the Raptor price was higher than what he said.

Anonymous said...

Thank you for all the great information

Anonymous said...

the 17 cents stock that Kolber was talking about is not Nuclear solution, since this one is not a biotech company. So if any ones knows the true name please let me know, thanks.

Anonymous said...

does any one knows the name of the company that Kolber calls "The nordic miracle worker: make 50 times your money as this company unlocks the secrets of life."

Anonymous said...

the 17 cents stock by Kolber is SCLL.OB. Happy trading to all!

Anonymous said...

Hey thanks for the information, and if you like pennies stocks, here is the latest Tobin Smith alert: This is a great play in the Canadian oil sands craze even when is not an oil producer, but it provides mineral aggregates and other materials for the companies producing oil,Tobin thinks that it has the potencial for a ten bagger, the name is Birch mountain resources Amex: BMD and is trading for $2.75 or so.

Anonymous said...

the nordic miracle worker Kolber was refering to is Decode Genetics (DCGN)

Anonymous said...

does any one knows Tobin Smith latter 10 bagger, which is a software based data transmission company, that will increase speed 100 times.