Saturday, February 18, 2006

And we'll have fun, fun fun 'til her daddy takes her T-bird away

Are we having fun, yet?

Our mixed bag of story stocks have turned in a noteworthy performance over the past six months. NNVC is up 1500%, while WAVR is down 25%. In-between, AVII and NVAX are up over 200%, BCRX up over 100%, recent pick PTSC up 62% and SMTR is down about 10%.

If one were to buy a little bit of every story stock mentioned here, I think overall the returns would be worth the risk. In fact, I have received private e-mails from folks who have made $25-50K on some of these. But the most frequently asked question is whether a particular stock is a buy now, or conversely if a particular stock should be sold for profits or to close out a losing position.

In and of themselves, I have no good answers, other then to buy a stock when I first write it up and sell it whenever you feel like it. It is the very nature of these picks, these story stocks, that makes it so hard to answer individual timing questions. The story is hardly out on most of these companies and for the most part, my profit targets, even when it comes to our 1500% winner NNVC, haven't even come into view yet.

That's another feature of story stocks, a dynamic unfolding story. For example, the story behind NNVC at 10 cents was more conceptual then anything else. Now with actual trials taking place, the story has graduated to more make or break considerations. That's also the case with XDSL, the story will change as development of their new battery technology goes well, or not so well. I alluded to this in my NVAX post last week. The story behind NVAX has taken a significant jump toward "bigger then we thought" with their collaboration with the University of Pittsburgh. At it's current price of $4.60, there may be a better risk:reward model for NVAX then when I first posted about NVAX at $1.49.

In any case, I am pleased not only with the performance of the group of stocks that I have introduced in these blogs, but also by the quality of readers who are posting comments and sharing your trading ideas. Those of you who watch Jim Cramer should be well aware of his opening disclaimer, that, "I am not here to make friends, I am here to make money." But we all know that Cramer is a disingenuous carnival barker.

As for me:

I am here to make friends;
I am also here to make money;
and I am here to help my friends make money.


If we can have a little fun while at it, all the better.

A

1 comment:

David A said...

Thanks Allan for all that you do and share.