Sunday, January 15, 2006

XDSL - Closer Look

mPhase Technologies (XDSL) sells for 29 cents a share and has a current market cap of about $46M. It's in collaboration with Bell Labs to create a new generation battery, has developed a nano-based metal detector ("Magnetometer") and sells DSL components for delivering high speed broadband data and video over DSL systems. My quick and dirty analysis of XDSL is that any one to these three divisions of their business model is worth three times current market cap, making fair value of the company about 10X it's current price. That's the reward part. The risk is none of their products catch on or are developed and the company languishes as a penny stock for a decade.

Here's a link to their work on metal detection.

But the real kicker in these shares is its collaboration with Bell Labs on Battery Development. Below is a write-up from the Forbes-Wolfe Nanotech Report describing this new batttery technology. At a market cap of only $46M and at the forefront of nanotechnology with a partner like Bell Labs, all we need is the Dent-Wolanchuk Bull Market of Epic Proportions to kick-in for these shares to start flying off the shelf.

A


What do medical implants like pacemakers, military communications
devices, and wireless sensor nets such as those used to monitor humidity
in semiconductor fabs have in common? They all require batteries—
preferably ones that can run for months or years without recharging or
replacement. The market for primary,non-rechargeable batteries is esti-
mated to reach $14 billion in 2007.

Rest of article

6 comments:

curt504 said...

Hi Allan, I have a boat load of XDSL too, sold my NNVC for a big profit and waiting for a return to $1.5 or so for a buy back. I'm certain it'll trickle down over the next weeks.

Q re your buy the insider buys stocks. Any tips on your algorithm? Where you can filter on the sec reports with precission?

I'm trying to build a trading strategy and am wanting to learn from a pro!

tnx, curt (chsmith@speakeasy.net)

Allan said...

Any tips on your algorithm? Where you can filter on the sec reports with precission?

The quality of each and every posted Insider transaction at the SEC.gov site is evaluated in terms of Buy versus Sell, Dollar Amount, Share Amount, Position of Insider, Sector, Market Cap and Volume. We have our own home made program that does that analysis in about a second, or less. Some of the commercial sites that I had listed about a year ago in early blogs have their own version of this kind of filter. But probably the very best advice I can offer is to watch the i-buys over the course of a month, or two or three and look for patterns, what kinds of i-buys seem to work the most consistently. For example, CEOs and CFOs seem to work more consistently then Directors, but that doesn't mean a Directror i-buy should be ignored. Also, lower priced stocks seem to pop and run more consistently then higher priced stocks. This is from observation since I've been doing i-buy trading, about 14 months now. Ask me again in another year and I may have some new tips and/or insights. It's a dynamic field and worth the effort.

A

curt504 said...

Tnx Allan. Do you have any correllation signals that you use to reduce risk, increase probability? I'm not refering to TA, but heres an example of correllation: if USD drops AND 5yr bond rises on volumn then: buy gold at the market

:)

I'm at the dangerous stage pondering black box trading or at least "signaling".

tnx curt

Allan said...

Do you have any correllation signals that you use to reduce risk, increase probability?

The worse the market looks, the more I bet on each signal.

A

Anonymous said...

had you heard about an xdsl article being published in scientific american? from another forum i read ...

"Dear Sharpeyed.com subscribers,

This year we have Scientific American releasing their feature article about XDSL during the month of February!!!

Check out this ScienCentral article and video from a year ago about XDSL's nanobattery:

www.sciencentral.com/articles/view.php3?article_id=218392466

Once Scientific American hits newsstands next month the ENTIRE WORLD will be talking about XDSL! Then when ScienCentral airs their update on TV it is unimaginable how much publicity XDSL is going to have!!!!!!!

The investment community is totally unaware of XDSL stock! It is unbelievable that XDSL is trading at valuations this low! These next couple of weeks will be the biggest weeks in the history of the company!!! We need to help spread the word!!!! "

Anonymous said...

sorry .. just went back a couple of posts and saw your mention of it. Does look like there will be some interest generated. Thanks again... For the blog and the ideas!

Hope this will be another nnvc. Which profited me 100% BTW .. and I didn't even let it run. Somehow I just can't kick myself over 100% profit though. ;)