Sunday, January 22, 2006

Dines Letter Annual Forecast Issue

Jim Dines Annual Forecast issue arrived on Saturday. Forty-eight pages of text, opinions, statistics, analysis and some of the most original and informative charts anywhere at any price. Some snippets follow.

On Uranium:

"In the next seven years the western world's demand for uranium is predicted to surpass known supply sources by 3-million pounds. That means at least one nuclear facility will run out of uranium and need to turn off the lights, as fantastic as that may seem, believe it or not. We can already visualize international headlines about the event. igniting a further buying panic resulting in a 'spike' of urnaium prices to sky-high levels because there is no substitute for uranium."

On Gold:

"One reason we have such high targets for precious metals is that they uniquely go up based Mass Fear, whereas the usual driver of bull markets is Mass Greed. The climax of this gold bull market will be driven by Mass Fear and, unlike greed, fear knows no limits."

On Stock Markets:

"Applying trendline-following to the Uptrends in the S&P 500 and the Dow-Jones Transports is basic, so until they they break down we must assume that the Trend is generally higher and remains bullish until the inevitable breakdown does occur."

On World Politics:

"...Governments will use the war on drugs, terrorism, health crises - anything at all to increasingly control is citizens."

On Terrorism:

"Our predictions have not been so much a war between religions, which will come later, but within, between what we define as the 'orthodox' and the 'seculars,' in every religion worldwide, a brutal battle to the bitter end."

On Health:

"Avian Flu is already entrenched in avian poop in Southeast Asia, which is a ticking time bomb. As you read this the virus is studying us all, already able to jump species (from birds to humans and cats) and is desperate to transmit from human to human - against which we have no immunity and the fatality rate has been that 70% of those infected have died, a horrific ratio suggesting that two-thirds of all humanity is at risk."


Editors Note: The Dines Letter is probably the best newsletter to which I subscribe. There are stock recommendations, but the real value of the publication is Dines' analysis of the world markets and the psychology of it's participants. The Annual Forecast Issue is like a short paperback book, full of timely observations, recommendations and historical charts, almost in and of itself worth the price of annual admission. I hope Jim Dines doesn't mind my posting from his work, but his ideas are worth repeating here, tantilizing and in my mind, leaving the reader intellectually hungry for more.

A

14 comments:

ilene said...

Hi, Allan,


I don't understand the reasoning behind this statement: "Our predictions have not been so much a war between religions, which will come later, but within, between what we define as the 'orthodox' and the 'seculars,' in every religion worldwide, a brutal battle to the bitter end." Can you elaborate?

Thanks, Ilene

Allan said...

Ilene, unlike most readers of my blog, you have the luxury of walking upstairs to my office and picking up a copy of the Annual Forecast Issue and reading it for yourself. Of course, I can spoon feed it to you and save you the time and trouble of reading it for yourself. But then, it would not mean as much to you then if you read it for yourself. Football starts in a couple of hours, that would be a good time to immerse yourself in Dines.

A

ilene said...

Uh, let's see.... 48 pages.... spoon feeding sounds better to me.

curt504 said...

Funny world we've come to live in where house mates use a public blog to communicate. :) My wife and I just had a nice Saturday night both with laptops purched on knees all night long, and yes a few emails exchanged and she was 10 feet from me. The email did contain URLs too long to verbaly share.

Uranium??

Like gold which has the goldbugs, I read a paper on uranium inventory at the processing plants. I can't dig it up, but the short of is that it's hype that there's a shortage. There's numerous closed and shuttered mines and viable prospects sitting in operators lease portfolios. Back to uranium tailings piles: seems when more uranium is needed, the tailings pile is sifted one more time and a few more hundred pounds of the stuff is removed.

But, stocks move from hype, so what stocks are you looking at for the IRA long term uranium play?

tnx curt

Anonymous said...

thanks for the Dines snippets --
Re the orthodox vs. secular debate - to my mind, terrorism is simply 'rough justice' in the hands of economically disenfranchised who lack tools / access to world markets / the intellectual training or 'smarts' to participate in the world's economic well being, on a macro or micro level. There doesn't seem to be much practical difference between the insular secularism of an Oklahoma bomber and the insular orthodoxy of a Bin Laden. They each choose to use violence as the universal leveler. Religion is simply an excuse.

Anonymous said...

It is quite an excuse for WASPs [of which I most certainly am one] as well. Crusades anyone? We persecute and malign others for acts (toture, ditching of rule of law and due process before easedropping, hold without charges, on and on) that we do ourselves. We're such a great influence Latin america for example is turning leftist as fast as they can.

I'm not going to waste time on this.., but let's not be simplistic and/or naive.
More about uranium and dines please and thanks.

Allan said...

so what stocks are you looking at for the IRA long term uranium play?

I think Dines draws the line at republishing his specific stock ideas, so you're on your own there. But it wouldn't be so hard to find the short list of available uranium plays with Yahoo/Google and a little ingenuity.

A

Allan said...

downloadable report on uranium and uranium stocks:


http://www.goldletterint.com/egr/egr_uranium.pdf


A

Ronny said...

Allan,I have tracked 55 buyback plays so far,with 39 winners for a success rate of 70.9%.The average gain was 2.1% and the average loss was .9%.
Ron

Anonymous said...

The Dines letter seems well thought out. I subscribe to two of the Motley Fool newsletters. Would you like to trade on a monthly basis?

Allan said...

My approach to newsletters is that if I can't make back the subscription price in a few recommended trades, then I am better off without it. Accordingly, by paying for the subscription myself, I can more easily measure its worth. Dines is worth every penny, BTW.

A

Anonymous said...

Allan,

Would you consider subscribing to dines letter at this point still worth it? I mean, is Dines still in bull mode or cash mode. Arriving too late to the party I may be just picking the trash.

Regards,

Andres

Anonymous said...

I second that concern.
Will it be worth subscribing to Dines at this stage?
Has Dines hinted of when he would like subscribers to get out of the market?

Allan said...

Dines has a habit of getting in early to major themes in the market, gold, internet, uranium for example. Even if you are late to uranium, you would be early to the next party.

A