Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Trend Following Trading Models

It's been a good week for subscribers of my Trend Following Trading Models.  At the end of this post I'm posting the actual updated Trend Models.  But for starters, here is a snippet from the Weekend Update that went out Saturday, June 26th:

Trend Models & Trades of the Week

"This week generated a few intriguing new signals from the stock trend models.  Accordingly I am highlighting DISH and HGSI as dual Trades of the Week, both triggering Daily SELL SIGNALS. 

"There is also a relatively fresh Daily LONG signal for SDS, generated on Thursday's large decline in the SPX. Since SPX is SHORT and SDS is now LONG, let's add LONG SDS as our third Trade of the Week.

"Since all three of these Trades of the Week are on the SHORT side of the market, they are in that sense, all the same trade.  I personally prefer to mix my trades, some ETF's, some individual stocks, some options and use these fresh reversals to add to existing positions.  But there is a lot that can be said for keeping things much simpler, i.e. establish a SHORT position in the market by going LONG SDS and doing nothing else."

Index, ETF & Stock Trend Models as of June 30, 2010 




Disclaimer:  Past performance is not indicative of future results


Anonymous said...


Do you do any fundamental analysis? I'd appreciate your thoughts on Sprint (S). Turn around story is there. Lots of people, retail, institutional and hedge funds have positive views about it. It looked like it was on a long up trend, which made sense considering all the good news. Yet, its acting strangely. Any insights you have or perhaps application of your trend analysis tool would be much much appreciated.

Anonymous said...

NNVC-getting crushed- down to buying levels-$1.50-$1.60.

Traded out 42% of my position @ $2.21. Now, of course I wish I had sold all of it.

Time to buy back.


Anonymous said...

Yeah, good call on shorting NNVC at 1.80 Allan, I must admit. According to the charts, it does look like NNVC is headed under $1.

Anonymous said...

What will it be?

Shorting to under $1.00 or

Buying back in at 1.50?

I now!

gary said...

Oh Yes.....NNVC under a dollar.....ha ha ha ha ha shorty!!!

Anonymous said...

Listen,I'm not an expert but simple common sense ought to rule one's thinking and strategies in investing and trading.

If youre trading then yes, follow your technicals and dont pay any attention to the fundamental value of a stock,its life transforming story,breakthrough technology ....just watch your fibonaccis and trendlines and make a days pay on it.

But if you are an investor, all the other fundamental aspects are what should determine your strategies..... The story is profoundly life changing,on a global scale, the research is succeeding not failing...and the market action is panic sell driven...thats all thats going on.....panic sell capitulation.... and when the smoke clears,and it will, Whatever the price NNVC drops to doesnt matter.
Dont lose sight of the big picture.

My own regret was that for some inexplanable reason,when NNVC was selling down last fall to 50 cents,I just watched it like I was staring at a strange bird...I wish I had had the presence of mind to buy a boatload at that moment.

Now,I would say any price below 1.30 - 1.20 is a gift for new buyers.

Anonymous said...

Allan, curious what you think of your new little pet,MMRF right now ?

Anonymous said...

MMRF is obviously one of Allan's bad calls.

A said...


I see that there remains a contingent of readers who insist on beating me up for MMRF. As I wrote under another MMRF comment, subscribers got out well before the deluge on this one. Still, my bad for picking one that didn't work out.

On the other hand, take a look at the tables posted above and see if you have it in your heart to cut me a little slack here. That is one heck of a track record, notwithstanding past performance is not indicative of future results.


Anonymous said...

Allan... what are your thoughts on not going long on leveraged etf's due to the daily rebalancing?

Anonymous said...

Thoughts on long leveraged etf's?