Wednesday, August 19, 2009

The scary case for swine flu

"First, we will have an economic depression. If the CAR, or "attack rate" (the percentage of people in the population) who get the flu is in the typical range of 40-60% of the population, then a CFR of 2-3% means one million or more dead Americans this fall and winter, or more succinctly, somewhere around one in a hundred. If your kid goes to school with 1,000 other people, 10 of them will die (on average.)

"This sort of disruption in the economy, given where it is now, guarantees a contraction of GDP of 10% or more from the top, which is the definition of economic depression. We can argue about "how bad of a depression" later."

Depression Assured? Maybe (Swine Flu)
The Market Ticker
Karl Denninger


Anonymous said...

ooooo...I don't think we will have a high mortality rate that this passage is suggesting. If this is based on the surge of flu after WWI, then we can assume a smaller impact because of our ability to notice and communicate disease trending. I think the flu will come back, but slightly on the high side for a busy flu season. We'll see though, won't we.

ilene said...

Hi Allan,

I read that from Karl, and even checked the comments for sources, and couldn't find any evidence for that % claim... Surprised he didn't look into more thoroughly.


Anonymous said...

He's just another pissed off bear

grasping at straws, because his

gloomy outlook is not working.

shameless bs.