Friday, August 15, 2008

Solar

Big news Thursday for Solars.

This would be a good time to look at the Triangles for individual Solar Stocks. Here are some that I either have or will have before trading ends Friday:

YGE


JASO




SPWR



SOL



A

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

nice pick
i'm interested in jaso
but i still didn't navigate triangles. Any estimates for target price?

Anonymous said...

RE: Triangles... I think I'm stupid and missing something, but isn't using MACD just as, if not more, effective as the triangle system?

Allan said...

Re: Triangles

MACD is a momentum based oscillator, Triangles on the other hand are based on price breakouts. Huge difference. MACD is guessing, Triangles are confirming a short-term trend is in place. It's the short-term trends that elongate into intermediate and long term trends that ring the cash register big time. MACD's crash and burn in trending markets.

If Triangles (read: breakouts) weren't an effective trading tool, you would never had read about them here.

Allan said...

Re: JASO

Looking for low 20's, minimum.

Eric said...

I'm new to trading and have been losing quite a bit of my capital, would you recommend this marketclub trade triangle system for someone like me? Has it helped you make money?

Allan said...

Eric, i think a discipline like that imposed my this simple breakout system would improve your results dramatically. In addition, it will give you a self sufficiency in trading that so many have found so elusive for so long.

Now, if you can by yourself, buy a 3-wk breakout and hold until reversing short on a 3-wk breakdown and holding short until reversing long on a three-week breakout again and sticking to that system without the help of automated signals on your screen, you may not need any additional tools. But I suspect that is much easier to contemplate, then execute. Amazing as it may seem, having automated arrows appear on your computer screen can make a huge difference in your trading.

Hope that helps.

Eric said...

Thank you for the swift reply Allan, I see this system seems to be a very sophisticated analysis tool. What is the winning percentage of the trade triangles for equities? Lastly can institutional investors, fund managers etc... use this tool for their buy and sell points?

Eric said...

One more question in addition to the one I just asked, is the 3 week breakout/3 week breakdown strategy what you do?

Allan said...

What is the winning percentage of the trade triangles for equities?

Loaded question, here's why: If any system wins 50% of the time, whether it is profitable depends on how you minimize losses and maximize gains. My experience with the triangles is that they are about 60% accurate, but that the losses are under 5% where the winners average in excess of 25%. You do the math, but for me, those numbers are phenomenal.

Lastly can institutional investors, fund managers etc... use this tool for their buy and sell points?

Of course they can, but from published reports, fund managers as a group suck and there is no way they are trading anything remotely as successful as what we are discussing here.

is the 3 week breakout/3 week breakdown strategy what you do?

It is a part of what I do; my trading is categorized as about 1/3 day-trading, 1/3 swing trading of which some trades are purely mechanical trades using the triangles and 1/3 secret sauce.

Eric said...

Wow, so the losses using the trade triangles are usually 5% or under? They don't get much higher than that? I certainly think a 60% accuracy rate is quite high for a trading system. I was reading one of your past blog posts regarding the triangles, I would also like to know does the trade triangles work well with microcap companies?

susan said...

Allan,

I wanted to see how the triangles did for XAUUSDO (gold) so I added everything up, using 1 year of data. The result, using weekly triangles yielded 8.6% profit, using daily 5.9% and buying the first daily triangle and selling at the last, 6.1%.

On the other hand, NNVC did significantly better with the triangles. Like you said, some do better than others.

How do you identify which stocks do better? Looking at past data? Smaller market caps, smaller volume stocks?

Allan said...

How do you identify which stocks do better? Looking at past data?

Painstakingly, one by one. The payoff is that you don't need more then a handful that work to have a nice trading portfolio.

Take a look at AAPL and DNA.

susan said...

Take a look at AAPL and DNA

Fabulous - thank you. I'll share when I find some of my own.

Anonymous said...

just signed up with marketclub last week. thanks allan.

here's what i'm going to try out with marketclub:

1. get list of stocks i'd like to trade. currently i like high flyer stocks such as aapl, bidu, pot, etc.

2. watch for weekly signal triggers on these stocks.

3. once weekly signal is triggered then monitor the stock in the next 1-5 days.

4. within the next 1-5 days, if it's a weekly sell signal then enter in a short position or buy puts when the stock price is ~100%-150% of the daily ATR(average true range) above the weekly sell signal. Much better if the stock price hit your target short price within 3 days.

My first attempt of my strategy came last week with CF. The weekly sell signal was 132 on 8/8. the ATR was around ~9. I started layering in my puts when CF got up to 139-140 on 8/13-8/14. i got out on Friday at 130.

Anonymous said...

would be better if marketclub has a daily/weekly summary list of all of the weekly signals that were triggered. allan do you know if they do?

thanks

aymon

Eric said...

Wow, so the losses using the trade triangles are usually 5% or under? They don't get much higher than that? I certainly think a 60% accuracy rate is quite high for a trading system. I was reading one of your past blog posts regarding the triangles, I would also like to know does the trade triangles work well with microcap companies?

Anonymous said...

Allan,
There seems to be a lot of excitement for your support of Marketclub. I have tried the other recommendations of Stocks and Bulls, and also Muathe, and they both have done absolutely horribly in this most recent bear market.

Do you find Marketclub to be better than the above two?
John

Allan said...

Everyone wants to know what I use in my trading. Everyone also would like to find some of these lower priced stocks that are running big time.

I use market club to generate a list of stocks that are or are about to do just that, run big time. That's about it, except that there are a few bigger cap stocks that I am trading with the weekly triangles, strictly mechanical.

Does either of those uses interest you? There are oterh bells and whistles, but i DON'T USE THEM SO CANNOT COMMENT ON THEIR USEFULNESS.

With a 30 day refund policy, it seems like there is no risk to test this out. You'll know in about two weeks if it is useful. I knew in about 2 hours.

A

quintilien said...

good day mr allan

as a matter of fact, i'm an old fashion traditional trader on stocks i.e. i trade stocks through telephone directly to my bank. Sure in this case the possibility of triangle trade is not preferable but how about long term on (jaso) for the time being? do you think we are going to see $20
in the near term as t/a at least indicate?

Anonymous said...

hello Allan!
need some help with camarilla targets. what is the target for long or short after the H4 or L4 is taken out? any equations or % retracement or something?
Pls help
cheers//mvp
catchmvphere@gmail.com

Anonymous said...

Hi Allan,
First congratulations on your daughter going to university. I have a 4 year old son and look forward to the day he goes to university. Not because he'll be out of the house but because I hope it will be a defining 4 years for him as it was for me :)

Ok, on that note, I need to make $$$ to add to our existing money we have in mutual funds for his college tuition.

3 Questions:
1) is it too late to get into JASO?
2) your thoughts on ATN, Crammer says its significantly undervalued?
3) your thoughts on SCA at its current pice?

Thanks,
Ron

Allan said...

is it too late to get into JASO?

tough question, at 16.25 the risk was about 1 point, reward about 5; at 17.75 risk is about 2-3 points, reward 3-4 points. Plus, all Longs in this market are against a Bear Trend. Tread lightly.

your thoughts on ATN, Crammer says its significantly undervalued

Cramer is such a dolt.

your thoughts on SCA at its current pice?

Made my money and have moved on.

Anonymous said...

thanks Allan! I'm with you on Cramer :)