Wednesday, August 06, 2008

SCA - Update

From my mailbag:

"Lot of action in SCA in after hours yesterday and today's pre-market with some news yesterday. Can you share your thoughts and update on this from you."

SCA is in the same business as ABK. This morning, ABK reported earnings:

Ambac Financial 2Q earnings more than quadruple

Ambac Financial Group 2nd-qtr earnings more than quadruple on accounting-related gains

NEW YORK (AP) -- Ambac Financial Group Inc. on Wednesday reported an operating loss during the second quarter because of expected losses on insurance contracts, but at the same time posted a net profit because of how it must account for special non-cash gains from the same complex portfolio.
Can it be as simple as a sympathy pop? Beats me. But, with SCA trading premarket at $3.00 and my adjusted basis in SCA at $1.14, I am a happy camper.

Looking again at the Weekly SCA chart, it would seem that the closest likely resistance is the 50 wk SMA which is at 5.42.

What happens at 5.42? Hope to find out soon.

Along with SCA and ABK, I also own MBI. All are based on the same analysis from my original SCA Blog.

Both MBI and SCA are scheduled to report earnings in the next few days:

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Ambac Financial Group and MBIA Inc. are riding a wave of optimism that they finally may be moving past their financial difficulties, with their stocks rallying in recent days.

So, three pigs in a poke seems to be one of the better trades of the year for the Blog. What does that tell us about trading? The same thing it tells us about baseball. That if you put the ball into play, anything can happen. [Baseball metaphor, see Archives]



Anonymous said...

I'm happy with my 32% from today even with my low volume of shares. Plus whatever else I gained since last Wednesday. I'm just unsure of when to pull out??? I thought with the loss of 11% yesterdaqy I was going to pull out in the am...glad I didn't. How long is this going to last? I'd love this to see $5 or $10 a share, but I'd hate to see this stock plung back to $1.44 that I picked her up at.


Anonymous said...

Im trying o get into SCA. Looking for a dip. Can you bring it down to 2.60 for me for a few minutes? Thanks.

Eric N
(different Eric)

Susan said...

Eric N, you might get your wish - after hours trading spread is 2.60 bid 2.65 ask....might open around there.

Anonymous said...


Would you continue to hold ABK,MBI and SCA even though the financials (e.g. XLF) are declining?

Also would you consider holding SKF as a hedge against a decline in the financials (XLF)?

Thanks in advance

PS. Continue with your great work!

Allan said...

Would you continue to hold ABK,MBI and SCA even though the financials (e.g. XLF) are declining?
Also would you consider holding SKF as a hedge against a decline in the financials (XLF)?

Yes, I am holding all three for much higher prices and I do like SKF here for a hedge, excellent idea.

Anonymous said...

Allan, I want to take this opportunity to thank you for all of your stock picks. I have not written before but wanted to let you know that as of this week I have made over 250K on your picks in the last 2 years. Keep up the good work.

Ryan Finnegan

Allan said...

Hey, Ryan, take a look----------------->

it's a Donate button, goes right to Pay Pal and then 97% of it goes through to me. Best yet, I feel so guilty for getting paid to do what I love, I come back with more picks and the cycle begins anew.

Seriously, some of you folks have been very generous and I can only surmise you are turning these ideas into short term capital gains. Just don't turn NNVC into one yet, not even a long term capital gain. The story keeps getting better.:

Anonymous said...

Sorry Allan, I didn't understand - does it mean not to exit NNVC at this time and/or wait to buy NNVC. Thanks as always.

Allan said...

Don't sell NNVC, as I expect it to be much higher in the months ahead.

Anonymous said...


Is this the time to sell some SCA or you think there is more upside?


Anonymous said...

what are the current prospects for either holding/selling on SCA and HYGS post earnings yesterday?
Thanks as always.

Anonymous said...

Looks like HYGS posted positive and SCA posted negative earnings.