Sunday, August 24, 2008

More on Solar

A friend of mine emailed me this weekend and suggested that I take a step back from my charts, remove my trend lines and allow my intuitive powers out, in an attempt to see the charts as what they are, not what I am interpreting them to be. So for much of Sunday I have been occupied with looking at charts without any preconceived bias. The result: The solars look great.


Above is a CSIQ-Daily of price only, you decide.

Below the weekly, does this help?



Finally, let's throw my trend lines back on:




Next, a simple line chart of another Solar, TSL, with only Triangle signals:



And once again, with my trend lines:



Solars are great trading stocks, they seem to cycle very nicely and provide excellent Intermediate percentage returns. For example, either of these two Solars could return 50% on a modest move back to the top of their respective channels.

I still don't know if this sector belongs in the Energy complex, the Technology complex, or are their own complex. Doesn't matter. My trend lines merely represent what my eyes are seeing, without the trend lines. Both these stocks look to be oversold and beginning a rally to overbought.......and that is the Trade.

A

10 comments:

quintilien said...

Glad to see solar again occupying
the first page of yr site.
As a matter of fact i was intending to go today with solf after it was campaigned by
L.navellier yesterday.Now i feel
myself biased more towards csiq.
Got any t/a for solf in this concern?
regards
quintilien

Allan said...

SOLF looks as good as any, could have used it's chart just as easily as any of the others.

susan said...

Thanks for the comments on the solars. I'm in TSL at 30.55, and holding on. Are you watching anything else besides the triangles for an out signal?

Allan said...

Susan, I'm looking at resistance at about 36-40, which also coincides with the top of a downward sloping trend channel.

chad said...

Hi Allen-

I'm curious why you don't draw the trend line on the weekly csiq at the low between march and april of this year? If you do that it looks more like a short candidate right now than a long. On a side note, have you been trying to catch any falling knifes with Dines' stocks?

Thanks!

chad said...

Allan,

Just as a follow up, this is how I would have instinctively drawn the trend line-

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CSIQ&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p53780071973&a=149581909

I'm just curious why you chose the recent low instead of the first touch.

Thanks!

Allan said...

chad, haven't owned a single dines stock in at least six months; he just hasn't had a good ideas.

as for the CSIQ chart. try drawing the bottom channel line from the August 2007 low, it touches once at the October 2007 low and not again, coming in around 25 now; the top channel line is drawn from high of April, 2007, touches the high of December, 2007 and again May 2008. That's my target, above 50.

Anonymous said...

Allan,

Is today's action just a general kick in the teeth before we get some earnings tomorrow (SOLF)?

Anonymous said...

MAJOR ISSUE:

Allan. Can we assme you are biased towards solar power and stocks since you live in Ariona?

Home of The AZ State Sun Devils among a lot of heat and solar energy.

Also:

Wouldn't the use of Astrological techniques be especially useful in predicting the movement of solar stocks? Should Norm Winski be involved here?

JK in C

Anonymous said...

Allan,

On solar stocks when you say they cycle, where do you that cylce to end? When I look at charts it looks like they tend to trail off around December. When buying calls on solars would you look at Dec and Jan months?

Thanks

M