SPX_240 Trend Model
I've noticed that while overall performance is good across the board of my intraday/daily models, that at various times some individual models tend to be more prescient then others, i.e providing particularly accurate market timing. In the spirit of what's working now, here are my back-tested statistics for the 240_minute model:
Period: February 3, 2010 - July 16, 2010SPX = 1086 -> 1066Net = -20 SPX pointsTrades: 21Wins 12Losses 9Percent Winners: 57%Net = +261 SPX points
The characteristics of this performance that stand out are that first, it is of recent price action, reflecting the personality and character of this market, although subject to change at any time; second, that even though almost half of the trades are closed out as losses, that the winners not only compensate for the losses but go on to provide stellar results.
Finally, the characteristic that maybe is the most striking of all is that this is a purely objective, mechanical market timing methodology. There is no subjectivity (read: stress) whatsoever in the trading system.
What does it take to trade something like this?
The jury is out. Belief is certainly up there on the list, discipline too. Maybe the elimination of ego is also critical to successful implementation. All three seem to be essential, along with the simple algorithm that draws the trend line, which is updated throughout the trading day in my subscription service.
The model went SHORT on Friday.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.