Monday, July 26, 2010

NNVC - trend model update

The Daily Trend Model for NNVC triggered a Sell on June 30 at about $1.83.  Sitting today down about 25% from that Sell signal, NNVC is firming and may provide some reversals LONG from these levels.


The NNVC_240 Trend Model remains in SELL mode, but will reverse LONG on any four-hour close above $1.41.  


The NNVC_Daily Trend Model requires a daily close above $1.55 to reverse LONG.  The above 240_minute model gives an entry that is about 10% lower then the Daily Model, with a correspondingly higher risk of being whipsawed.  But we have seen this stock run up before and if there is enough price strength to move NNVC in to the $1.40's, it seems likely that the Daily threshold will also be hit.

Right now, with NNVC trading in the $1.30's, there isn't much to do.  Only in the event of a price rally will these models kick in on the LONG side. 


Anonymous said...

But for a price rally to begin, don't we need news? any news?

Allan, are you surprised that it is as low as it is, or is this the normal in trading this stock?

Anonymous said...

your trend models make me feel comfortable especially with NNVC
Has proved on more than occasion
its punctuality
shall load up my previous sold shares upon obtaining yr model criteria

Anonymous said...

sell in may

BigKahuna said...

>>But for a price rally to begin, don't we need news? any news?

At the beginning of the last run back in November 2009, there was no news. In fact, the price climbed for 3 months before the first news bite came out about the Berkeley deal and followed by a shelf registration filing.

When the greatly awaited whatever news finally arrived, there was disappointment from some who might have expected the money floodgates of Washington, D.C. to open, or that greatly anticipated big pharma deal, or even just truly exceptional terms for the shelf registration (placement at market price, no discount, no warrants, 2 year lock-up. You know, that kind of favorable deal). Anyway, selling, declines and bear attacks created a cascade to current levels.

As for today's action: This could be the beginning of something like last November, or it could be a one white candlestick day before we fall off another cliff (See the daily chart June 20th). After tomorrow we will know more. By the end of the week, we will know everything. OK, almost everything to do with trend.

Anonymous said...

I agree with the last paragraph,as I look at NNVC's chart....

wave structure has established 3 waves down, and now wave 4 ongoing zig zag abc just below the 200 MA... Prior to these last 3 days,we had 3 waves down which could be an ABC correction which would mean NNVC should be/should have been, going up in a serious way alongside the market going up as it has....but NNVC has failed to ride along with it. thats disappointing.
Now,still,NNVC has the chance to make a move but it has to be very soon,like tomorrow, to break upwards and break above the 200 MA at the 1.37 resistance.
IF NNVC fails to break above 1.37 and the 200 MA this would suggest it is carving out a wave 4 and I expect a wave 5 down further.... to the next target support at the 1.10 area.

next stop 1.45 or 1.10

Anonymous said...

but to be more clear about wave 5 target.... theres a range
between 1.20 and 1.10

Anonymous said...

last addition to add.... for what its worth in the analysis, The RSI, and Full Stochastic right now is at the lowest point since the 50 cent bottom last fall and the 2008 crash and march 2009 low. so if indicators mean anything at this moment.... NNVC 'ought to' bottom here.