Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Only the beginning



Anonymous said...

Alan it has been a long time since I been here. I got a job at a newspaper and have been working since the March low.

I bought stocks at 7100, and got out at 8200 and then bought commodities and generally have underperformed stocks. I don't have much time to study the markets, but the advance off the low looks like a corrective wave or a long-term wave 2. The low volume confirms it is a corrective wave up.

I'm guessing we are in A of 2 of a major bear market.

2 usually retraces 1 deeply, or at least 61.8%. That will put us in the 11,100 area at some point.

My feeling is we are in A of 2, and 2 is going to be a flat, given A was 3 waves up only. 2 should last a long time.

What do you think of the long-term count?


Anonymous said...


What are you talking about?

Are you saying we are to reach DOW @ 11,100 ?

I believe most are saying we will see new lows.


Unknown said...

re: >"only the beginning"

sounds about right.

thanks for the dedicated blog.

about the only one I follow...other than zerohedge.


Anonymous said...

Do you think today's rally is a sort of last gasp or will it have a few days of legs?

Anonymous said...

I told you, man, everytime I thought they are going down for sure, they manage to gap up and rip all my shorts ...

Anonymous said...

Look for S&P 500 to be aroung 1,100 to 1,140 before going short again, from there watch it go down to 900's or lower. As for the Dow, I'm expecting to see it go up to 10,150 or slightly higher in the near term between now and Jan, from there a decline to low 9,000s or lower.

Unknown said...

certainly not the beginning of Alan's many sky-is-falling calls

Anonymous said...


Yesterday seemed quite oversold. My RSI 2 was really digging a whole.

ITS QUITE A BOUNCE I'm noticing today in financials, materials, real estate.

I don't doubt your thesis, but I'd love to know if this push is enough to warrant buy signal from your blue system?

Love your blog dude


Anonymous said...

I too Allan would love to read your take on today's rally and if changes anything. thanks.

Anonymous said...

Allan, we need your guidance, they just ripped apart the shorts I put on yesterday ...

Anonymous said...

I was lucky..thanks to Alex.

I sold all shorts before yesterday's close.

Love this blog


Anonymous said...

Alex,I think youre on the right track in your thinking.
but I'm looking for 'A' to be 5 waves up,'B' 3 waves down,'C' 5 waves up, before the whole wave(2) is finished.

and I might see a top in the 1170 area,maybe a couple of tops there.

but you asked allan. so I'll bow out here.