Tuesday, May 31, 2011

New Biotech Pick

On August 30, 2005 I posted a blog on a new, unknown up and coming biotechnology company, Nanoviricides.  NNVC was at 8-10 cents when I ran the article and seven months later it hit $3.75.
Here is how that piece began:
In my ongoing quest for short-term trading opportunities, I have come across some services that specialize in “reverse merger” opportunities. A reverse merger stock is a stock that becomes public by buying a “shell” public company which is essentially going or already out of business. It is a quick and dirty way for a start-up to go public.
Not surprisingly, this back-door way around traditional IPO’s attracts some “substance-challenged” companies. But sometimes it attracts a gem that is just in too big a hurry to get their story out and get funding to go the traditional IPO route.
Five and one half years later, I may have uncovered another one of these reverse merger gems.  I had been researching this stock all last week.  Over the weekend I wrote up the company in my Weekend Update sent to my subscribers.  By now, they have had an opportunity to buy, as have I, so here it is on my public persona.
BIOTECHNOLOGY STOCKS
Always a soft-spot in my investors heart, when these go right they have a way of uplifting both our wallets and mankind. This is the moral soul of trading, i.e. when we win, the whole world wins with us.  NNVC will one day wipe out viral diseases.  CTIX may one day cure as many as half of the cancers known to mankind.  While we wait, NEOP is up 30% from its most recent Buy signal.
One of the attractions of NNVC was its, “one size fits all” approach to anti-virals. One basic structure works on all viruses.  It’s not that far apart from what we do here with trend trading.  One basic algorithm identifies and follows trends, with a tweak here and there to cover special situations.
Cellceutix has taken the same approach to the treatment of cancer.  They have developed a drug, Kevetrin, that triggers the p53 gene, the so called, “Guardian Angel” gene. From this linked interview with the company’s CEO:
One of the major breakthroughs that sets Cellceutix apart from other biotech companies is Kevetrin’s ability to activate p53. Can you discuss what this is and why it is so significant?
p53 is known as the “Guardian Angel” gene. It’s the p53 in more than half of the cancers that is not regulating the cell properly. When Kevetrin comes in contact with the p53, it reactivates the p53 and it gets alerted to start doing its job, whether to fix the cell or to kill the cell. This has been one of the “Holy Grails” in cancer research. There have been numerous programs at the biggest pharmas working on this, and it’s hard for us to estimate how much has been spent on these programs, but we’d have to guess it has been in the hundreds of millions of dollars of research. There’s one whole class of drugs with which they attempted to do this, called Nutlins, but those were found to be defective in that they destroyed the DNA, so that wasn’t a viable option. So, it seems that Cellceutix, at this time, and with what we know, has the only activator of p53 as a cancer drug.
So let’s get to some bottom lines here that have me pretty excited about the opportunity represented by this little known biotech:
*$75M market cap, a pittance;
*Products (mainly cancer and autism) amounting to $30B in potential market sales;
BEVERLY, MA–(Marketwire – 05/23/11) – Cellceutix Corporation (OTCQB: CTIX) (Pinksheets:CTIX – News), a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing small molecule drugs to treat unmet medical conditions, announced today that in light of recent exceptional preclinical results regarding Kevetrin™, the Company believes it would be in its shareholders’ best interest to test Kevetrin™ against a very aggressive cancer that would be more beneficial to patients and generate more useful data for its IND filing. Cellceutix has therefore initiated a study in an animal model implanted with human pancreatic cancers.
*Management: Some very prestigious names. Read carefully the resumes of management and of the scientific advisory board, including Dr. Krishna Menon, prominent in the development and progress of NanoViricides;
*Just like NNVC, a truly phenomenal risk/reward profile. 1,000′s of percent to the upside against maybe 50% to the downside, but so what it its even 100% to the downside?  A few of these in your portfolio means only half of one needs hit and your gains are enough to fill the coffers.
*Read the above press release again.  Something happened in the lab in May, something they can’t completely disclose yet that made them take a 180 and go after pancreatic cancer.  WHAT DO THEY KNOW?  Well, I’ve seen enough to want to own of piece of whatever it is.  Trends or not, this is an opportunity, let’s run with it.

CTIX Daily Trend Model

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Mark Haines

I posted this on my AllanTrend site this morning, it's free to all, but I'm posting it here too, because I am really sad about this and don't completely know why.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mark Haines


If you are not watching CNBC, you may not have heard, but Mark Haines has passed away at the age of 65.   It is a time like this that our lives are put in perspective for what really matters, that every breath we take is precious and the markets pale in comparison to the gift of life and the gifts that come our way in a lifetime: Children, lovers, friends, relatives and even so called strangers, like Mark Haines, that are taken for granted, until the day they disappear, suddenly, unexpectedly, sadly and irrevocably.
If it is possible to have a friend who we have never met, Mark Haines was one for me.  I will miss him.
A




GOOG & C

Here are the two latest AllanTrends signals on Google and Citibank. Two sectors a football field apart.  No, the state of Rhode Island apart.  No, the Indian Ocean apart.  It doesn't matter, these signals work, as I have been showing here for the last 18 months.




Saturday, May 21, 2011

Let them eat gold

The quotation, as attributed to Marie Antoinette, was claimed to have been uttered during one of the famines that occurred in France during the reign of her husband Louis XVI. Upon being alerted that the people were suffering due to widespread bread shortages, the Queen is said to have replied, "Then let them eat, a chemical element with the symbol Au and an atomic number of 79."

Gold stocks have been on a tear for a couple of years.  It's would take a lot of courage to Short one like this:


But when the trend changes, as defined by the AllanTrends algorithm, there is nothing else to do but SELL:


Let's look at the whole cycle:


The at-the-money 4 month options trade at about a $2.00 ($200 per option).  That Sell Signal in early March has resulted in about a $7.50 gain.  Those at-the-money puts @ about $2.00 (strike price 17) are worth about $6.50 at current stock prices. That's a gain of about 250%. Marie Antoinette would be proud.


Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Option trading is risky, you can lose your entire investment and get really depressed.  This is not a recommendation to buy or sell options, stocks, commodities or automobiles..... and please don't sue me.

Friday, May 20, 2011

I could have been somebody

No Ph.D's need apply

"Base salaries for Newport Beach lifeguards range from $58,000 for the lowest-paid officer to $108,492 for the top-paid battalion chief, according to a 2010 city report on lifeguard pay. Adding in overtime, special compensation, pension, medical benefits, life insurance and other pay, two battalion chiefs cleared more than $200,000 in 2010, while the lowest-paid officer made more than $98,000.
"All lifeguards received $400 in sunscreen allowance and two cleared $28,000 apiece in overtime and night duty pay.
"Newport Beach's lifeguards can also retire at 50 with 90 percent of their salary with 30 years of service, according to state data."
"You shoulda taken care of me just a little bit so I wouldn't have to take them ... I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, ..."

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Opportunity of a LIfetime





The decade long view of the Dow Jone Industrial Average uses monthly bars to portray the past and suggest the future.  The devastating decline of 2007-2009 wiped out stock market fortunes.  So much so, the investing public remains out of stocks, although they seemed to have found some solace in gold and silver, for now.  


The chart shows a new high made on the current monthly bar, a turn lower below last months close and both right at a significant Fibonacci level.  I haven't labeled the waves because I'm too lazy.  Nonetheless, there is an A-B-C up from the 2009 low.  My longer-term trend indicator is still trending up, but reverses down at 11,415.  That's 1,000 points below current levels.  The Daily version of the indicator is already short.  The Weekly getting close.  


Look at those signals. They don't fool around.  You can sit out the next 1,000 points to be certain, you can subscriber to AllanTrends to be certain, or you can listen to Jim Cramer to be uncertain. In any case, there is a huge opportunity building in the market, those 1-3 times in a lifetime when if you are right, there are life-changing ramifications.  


It's how people get rich.


A

Monday, May 16, 2011

The Holy Grail of Trading Stocks & Commodities

How's that for a Google search phrase?

How are these trend models for proof of the pudding?

SLV


USO


UUP

GS

GOOG

VIX


NEOP


DJIA


Sunday, May 15, 2011

A night in the life

I started out tonight to write an overview of the markets, stocks, precious metals, bonds, interest rates and currencies.  There are some big changes starting to rumble across the horizon, opportunities for some very profitable trades.

Then I took my daughter, who is visiting me for the week, to have dinner with some family members here in Arizona.  One was missing.  My first cousin (more like my sister) lost her husband a few months ago after a very long and anguished battle.  We looked at old photos and remembered better times.  At the end of the evening, my daughter hugged my tearful cousin and said, "It will be alright.........I love you."

This is the daughter I raised and nurtured into the miraculous young woman she has become.  On the drive back to my place, she said, "Dad, I love you."  We sat down to find a movie before bed and landed on, "Funny People."  Adam Sandler plays a comic dying from a form of leukemia. We changed to Saturday Night Live quickly in time to find Paul Simon.

Now I am back in my room, writing these thoughts, but remembering the song that came on in the movie, just as we knew to change the channel.  So I will say this for whatever it is worth and whoever may stumble across this blog tonight. Let's call it an epilogue to my previous post, "Driving without music." It's been a week and already what we had, the best of times, are slowing fading into oblivion.  As much as I need to tell someone about this night, tell her, or who I thought she was, or maybe who I just wanted her to be, I can't, even though it might make her feel good that lovers can later be friends and share these things, these feelings; because I don't believe that for a minute.  If you become friends, you were never really lovers in the first place. Maybe this is where all the time goes.

Shadows are falling and I'm running out of breath, keep me in your heart for awhile.  If I leave you it doesn't mean I love you any less, keep me in your heart for awhile.





Friday, May 13, 2011

Driving without music

A mid-week AllAllan because  life happens between weekends.

I found myself driving without the radio today. No talk shows, no iPod, no music, just the silence of being alone.  This is what happens when there is one, where there once were two. I thought about it, about the market, about my daughters, about the beauty of the desert, about the weather, the road, the drivers, the women, so beautiful from afar, soft and tan, silky skin and flawless smiles, long flowing hair, everywhere, just everywhere.

But most of all, I thought about her.  Why this one, why did I fall so hard for so long, only to walk away and finally call it a game.   And game it was.  Back and forth, up and down, all the way to the end, when back didn't go forth, when down never came up.  There comes a time when you both know it.  From there, it's only a step away and this time I took it.

Driving in the car without music.  Your head filled with memories, all good.  But you and I know that wasn't the way it was.  That the bad filled our times together, first as a rare exception, then as an occasional storm and near the end, it seemed all bad. But you and I know that wasn't the way it was. Even at the end there were times that were good; rare but good, times of exception, a time of love.

Who knows where the time goes?

Sunday, May 08, 2011

A Mother's Dream

My mother said I could do anything, have any girl, live any dream and be as happy and successful as I wanted.  She believed in me.  Maybe that's what we need most in our lives, someone who believes.  Otherwise, we stand alone, looking across a valley of time with no one saying, "Go ahead, sweetheart, take another step."  It's been nineteen years, I miss her, her loving faith and most of all, I miss her infinite hope.

I can't for the life of me
Remember a sadder day
I know they say let it be
But it just don't work out that way
And the course of a lifetime runs
Over and over again



Saturday, May 07, 2011

Eat at Joe's

Here is a snippet my Weekend Update that just went out to subscribers of my AllanTrends trading service.  If you are here, you probably are already a subscriber.  If you are not a subscriber, what is wrong with you?  Probably post traumatic stress syndrome.  Yes I've been there and done that.  It is no fun, believe me.  But the best way to snap out of it is to subscribe to my service.  You can trust me, I am a doctor.  (Juris).


Trend tables results:
Indices: 9 out of 12 signals profitable;
Commodity Daily: 5 out of 6 signals profitable;
Stocks/ETF’s: 10 out of 15 signals profitable;
Gold Stocks; 6 out of 10 signals profitable (after just taking off some big winners);
Weekly Commodities: 5 out of 6 signals profitable;
Weekly Gold Stocks: 9 out of 10 signals profitable for an average gain of 157.65% per stock

Chart of the Week





Wednesday, May 04, 2011

Silver, Part II

We got a SELL signal on SLV mid-day Tuesday and subscribers were alerted to ZSL as a way to play the decline.  The trend models continue to provide timely signals on commodities and I have been introducing options as way to trade these reversals in trend.



Bring me the head of Osama Bin Laden

Maybe not his actual head detached from his body so fast, but all of the information it may have contained about other terrorists lurking out there in the shadows.  Then off with his head.  Henry VII used to do that, interrogate his enemies and wives before their heads were severed.  That led to even more dangerous heads (dangerous to Henry at least) rolling off the stage.

Opportunity lost.  But it did exact revenge.  Thing is, we could have had both, identification and perhaps locations of other killers and his damn head.

Monday, May 02, 2011

NNVC - last chance to buy under $100



I've been posting about NanoViricides since it was 8c a share.  My $100 share projection by 2014 stands, with my leanings now toward a higher valuation and sooner  in light of every incremental step, as per the news above, that they are taking.  This is the real deal, the stock of a generation, of three generations and of the 21st century.  Have I made myself clear?

A


Sunday, May 01, 2011

Jimmy Soul

We are at it again, the Detroit Red Wings coasting their way to yet another Stanley Cup and once again, fighting off not only the rag-tag collection of Sharks' opposition, but also the concerted effort of the National Hockey League to avoid the embarrassment of the Wings owning Lord Stanley' silver trophy.

Unlike last year, this year's Wings are too good, too talented, too deep and too loved for the forces of evil to rid themselves of so easily.  Not surprisingly, the league has responded this year by hiring out the Illuminati and Free Masons to lay in wait behind the shadowy caverns of the ice arenas, a la Tonya Harding*

  • Tonya Maxene[1] Harding (born November 12, 1970) is an American figure skating champion. In 1991 she won the U.S. Figure Skating Championships and placed second in the World Championships. She was the second woman, and the first American woman, to complete a triple axel jump in competition.
  • She became notorious after her ex-husband, Jeff Gillooly, conspired with Shawn Eckhardt[2] and Shane Stant to attack her skating competitor Nancy Kerrigan at a practice session, during the 1994 U.S. Figure Skating Championships.


Speaking of man-love, this series will provide the treat of watching Red Wing forward Pavel Datsyuk who will show exactly how the game of ice hockey should be played; with eloquence, style and speed.

As I post this, the first period of today's game has just ended with the Illuminati ahead 1-0. There were five penalties called in the first period, that's 10 of the 20 total minutes of the period being played by special teams.  No one can beat the WIngs 5 on 5, so its a good strategy for those who would seek to deny destiny.

Ah, destiny......when will they ever learn, when will I ever learn.