Saturday, May 21, 2011

Let them eat gold

The quotation, as attributed to Marie Antoinette, was claimed to have been uttered during one of the famines that occurred in France during the reign of her husband Louis XVI. Upon being alerted that the people were suffering due to widespread bread shortages, the Queen is said to have replied, "Then let them eat, a chemical element with the symbol Au and an atomic number of 79."

Gold stocks have been on a tear for a couple of years.  It's would take a lot of courage to Short one like this:

But when the trend changes, as defined by the AllanTrends algorithm, there is nothing else to do but SELL:

Let's look at the whole cycle:

The at-the-money 4 month options trade at about a $2.00 ($200 per option).  That Sell Signal in early March has resulted in about a $7.50 gain.  Those at-the-money puts @ about $2.00 (strike price 17) are worth about $6.50 at current stock prices. That's a gain of about 250%. Marie Antoinette would be proud.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Option trading is risky, you can lose your entire investment and get really depressed.  This is not a recommendation to buy or sell options, stocks, commodities or automobiles..... and please don't sue me.


Anonymous said...

Seems like everything is correlated to the dollar, but the correlation is weakest with gold. The dollar ramped today and gold did too. I remember all the people in early May who said gold was a bubble and its days were numbered. It looks like they are about to be proved wrong.


Allan said...

Smiddy - The gold weekly model is strongly bullish, has been since early 2009. The daily model is short, but gld can't rise much without that model turning long. With both models then long, a new leg up will be in the cards. But that has to be confirmed by the reversal up in the daily gld model. We're not there yet.