Thursday, May 29, 2008

Solar

I see that solar stocks are down across the board this morning. A good time to review some key fundamentals of three of my favorites.

Sometimes I buy a stock because of the chart, sometimes it is because of a good story and sometimes it is because of compelling fundamentals. Rarely do all three of these criteria come together at the same time.

Solar stocks have for the most part great looking charts. The story is equally impressive in light of high oil prices and the Alternative Energy party likely to capture the House, Senate and maybe even the White House in November.

Now the really cool part:

JASO as a forward PE of 15, Quarterly Revenue Growth of 235% and Quarterly Earnings Growth of 155%.

SOLF has a forward PE of 3, Quarterly Revenue Growth of 304% and Quarterly Earnings Growth of 101%.

TSL has a forward PE of 12, Quarterly Earnings Growth of 161% and Quarterly Earnings Growth of 242%.

Take Away: Solar is a lot more then just Momentum Stocks of the Day, these are emerging superstars backed by real revenues, earnings and growth.

A

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Is right now a good time to get in on JASO, SOLF, or TSL, for those of us who missed earlier opportunities?

Thanks,

Matthew

Allan said...

Matthew,

I will be adding to my positions in Solar today, as soon as the hysteria-selling lets up.

A

Mike said...

"Take Away: Solar is a lot more then just Momentum Stocks of the Day, these are emerging superstars backed by real revenues, earnings and growth."

Well put...

A lot of production lines in China are focusing on this alternative.

Here's a blogger from Beijing who, for the most part, uses his blog to post news bulletins in the solar arena:

http://solar-in-china.blogspot.com/

-Mike

Allan said...

YGE = Yingli Green Energy

Stock today: 20.58 -1.81

Forward PE = 1.61
Qtr Rev Growth = 272%
Qtr Earnings Growth = 2,580%


A

Anonymous said...

--Begin quote--
3) Nicholas Carr gave a suave and lucid presentation of the themes of his Big Switch book, comparing the emergence of cloud computing to the rise of the centralized power grid. Raising an issue that recurred throughout the conference, our regnant expert on the power grid, Carver Mead, dismissed the analogy as simplistic, since one-way power delivery and two way information transfer are radically different processes. Bill Tucker, author of the forthcoming Terrestrial Energy, pointed out in a compelling speech that Moore's Law is about miniaturization of bits while the energy industry is better described by a Law of More--more power and more efficiency. He explained that all the energy in the atom is in the nucleus and pointed to the immense heat caused by nuclear fission and fusion within the earth. Then he impugned the venture capitalists' compulsion to waste arable land and space twiddling with electrons and photons and presented much evidence that solar energy in all its forms would never provide adequate power for an ever growing economy. Physicist Howard Hayden of Energy Advocate enthusiastically confirmed this view.
--End qoute--

Your thoughts on this? (I have no expectation for you to answer any of my questions -- do so only if you want to and time permits)

-Matthew

Allan said...

The answer to Tucker is Nuclear Power, but it is tough to make money in Nuclear; Solar is hot with governments who will pay it's citizens to buy all kinds of gadgets and materials from Solar companies, as shown by explosions in Solar revenues and earnings. What normally follows are explosions in stock prices and market caps. We will play Solar as long as that is where the money is, as we would play Nuclear, or Wind Power, or Oil Shale, or whatever, so long as that is where trading opportunities lay.

A