Monday, November 28, 2005

NNVC - Update

NNVC seems to have found itself in a consolidation between about 90 cents as support and 1.20 as resistance. We continue to monitor all things bird flu for which the Internet in general and Google in particular have been incredibly useful. We have also maintained our correspondence with NNVC's management via numerous back and forth e-mails.

Back when we first became shareholders of NNVC, circa 10 cents a share, we felt the risk/reward assessment of the company was very highly in our favor. The market cap was low and there was no interest in the stock, even though it was a bird flu play. No one knew about it, yet. Now at over $1.00 per share, we feel the risk/reward is less attractive and we have less of a feel for which way this stock will move. Many of the other bird flu stocks we have been following have leveled off, though they do trade with great volatility.

NNVC has been receiving a lot of new investor attention and bird flu concerns are increasing at an exponential rate. Our questions to management are now are based on some very specific, science-based issues -- which have not been adequately addressed -- though we are still trying to get more specific answers. It may be that the answers to our questions would be inconsistent with the longer-term viability of NNVC as a biotechnology investment.

Although I am keeping most of my NNVC shares for now, I am taking some off the table above $1.00 a share and would even consider adding more under 75 cents, if it were to fall that far.

Bottom line here is that I'm a little less certain of NNVC then I once was and want to express that new sentiment to my readers, many of you who are watching this stock as closely as I am. If NNVC reaches my $10.00 target, I'll still do fine. But if it is going to drop back under $0.50, or worse, it would be nice to have had some NNVC cash off the table, to throw back into it, or even something else, as circumstances dictate.

A

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Allan,
In your discussions w/ NNVC managment recently have you gotten the impression that the meeting scheduled in Viet Nam for Dec. may be in jeopardy?

Anonymous said...

Hi Allan,
Can you publish the questions that you have asked NNVC management??

Allan said...

No discussions re: Vietnam.

As far as questions, there is some discussion a couple threads back about language from company restricting public dissemination of correspondence, so we're playing it safe for now.

Note, I am still a believer in a $10 price target, but as NNVC went up 10 fold, it became a large percentage of my portfolio, larger then a speculative investment ought to be.

Anonymous said...

Allan, I read that thread where Ilene poses those questions! My understanding is that the technology NNVC will be using will be from their new patent (which I believe is being processed)! Also they are very protective about their technology and will not divulge any information. hence you may feel the lack of clarity in their answers. The advantage NNVC has is from the nano materials it uses. Just my 2 cents!

Micellar technology is prevalent and is being used by several pharmas (NVAX, etc) but not of the same materials that NNVC uses. The material that NNVC uses is not that expensive and is highly scalable.

Ted said...

Anonymous,

Can you explain what you know about the material that nnvc uses?
Also, what do you mean by "highly scalable"?

Anonymous said...

ted,
I know what I have gleaned from the articles published, so here it goes........

per the article the nano-material is unlike what is currently being used....it encapsulates the API in a wax like belly, thus preventing leakages into the physiological fluids. this has been confirmed in the recent animal trials wherein mice were given maximum dosage with minimal toxicity. Also my understanding (reading from the article) is that the nano-material (after its work is done) gets flushed out by body fluids!

By 'highly scalable'...it means the material is conducive to manufacturing of medicine in large amounts or small ammounts at affordable costs.

Allan said...

I pulled this of NNVC's Raging Bull message board today, take it with a grain of salt based on its source, but of interest nonetheless:

I spoke w/ Leo {CFO} today! He sd. that everything is still on schedule and the Co.'s presentation is ready to be given in Vietnam. Leo would not give the exact date , but he did say that they will be presenting very soon {in December}, and that we would here from them shortly after.

Leo also sd. that nothing bad has happened {w/testing} and there are still in the Lab. He also sd. that they are not the type of Co.that just throws PR'S out there.
Do your own DD, or call him yourself.

Anonymous said...

Ted, here is a brief description of NNVC's material (nano)...
"...This is the magic of the flexible TheraCour nanomaterials. Hard sphere nanomaterials such as dendritic materials, nanogold shells, silica, gold or titanium nanospheres, polymeric particles, etc., cannot do this...."

limayasmin said...

Really Nice Post. thanks To allan for this nice article. Can also see this here

insider trading