Friday, June 17, 2005

Safeguard Scientifics - SFE

An interesting Insider Buy this week is Safeguard Scientifics. I purchased SFE following the first of multiple SEC filings, starting on June 15th. My original cost basis on Wednesday was $1.10. Today, Friday, SFE has traded as high as $1.33. Apart from the over 20% gain in three days is the fact that there were eight separate Insider Buy filings this week, including the CEO and three other Officers as well as four Directors.

Also of interest is that SFE is trading at a discount of 98.7% from it's all time high of just over 100 in March of 2000. I actually owned this stock in the bubble but have no recollection of how it turned out. Which probably explains how it turned out.

In any case, just consider this a heads up, chart looks bullish and with multiple insider buys, it's probably worth putting on a radar screen.

3 comments:

Kirk Lindstrom said...

Hi Allan

SFE: Interesting stock. Selling at about cash value but bleeding cash at a high rate. Insiders buying could be key... but the price they paid is a small percentage of their annual salary. I'd feel much better if they had a few years worth of salary in shares. Then again, that sure didn't work for Ebbers watchers. His buying could have been an attempt to prop up the rest of his WorldConJob shares.

Now come visit my site and post a howdy!

Right now, we are cheering GGR HERE as it is looking at $4 resistance.

Allan said...

Hi Kirk, great to hear from you! I've registered and posted already on your site, where else but on the Brinker thread, but posted about another poster child of dementia, Cramer. As for GGR, my deal with Ilene is that anytime I buy an ASE-listed stock, she gets to poke me with a stick.

Jack Cory said...

BULL TREND FOLLOW UP - BAROMETER CREEP Sat. 6/18

This is a followup to my previous posts suggesting a bullish trend was in action.

For bulls the market is acting right. Following about 18 days of creating an extended and misshapen "flag" formation the various market indices, except for the NASDAQ, broke out to the upside on Thursday and Friday. For the DJIA the indication is that the index will move up to about 11000 from the breakout at 10600.

I would like to think that the market will continue to fly high beyond that point - and it might do so. However, a few indications are beginning to flash warning signs.

Now, I view indicators very much like a barometer on the Florida coast. A falling barometer usually forecasts a bad weather storm. On the other hand a storm does not always appear just because a barometer signals a possible storm. Sometimes it just doesn't happen. However, it is important to note that EVERY severe storm is accompanied by a falling barometer.

The most telling of the present negative indications is that volume has been low for the past 6 weeks. "Low" means that volume has been consistently below its 250 day Exponential Moving Average. That's just not good. Usually in cases such as this the market will move up on relatively even volume and then top out on a few days of increased volume. Something to watch for, in explicit words.

Another inidcation is that while New Highs have continued to vastly outperform New Lows, the number of New Lows has just about disappeared. This is rather a contra-indication. On Friday, 6/17, the total number of New Lows for all NYSE stocks was 8. I hate to tell you but that is usually just toooooo bullish a display to be maintained for very long.

The NYSE Member Buying and Selling indicator is always published about 3 weeks behind, just because they do not want you and me to know what they are doing at the moment. Those guys don't like to show their hand - or their book. However, starting in early April the Members have been selling considerably more stock than they have been buying, with only one week with more buying than selling out of the last 8 posted weeks. Those guys are pretty smart, so that's not good for our bullish side either.

However, on the bullish side, these are only small indications of possible bearish distribution at the moment. I feel the various market indices will continue to move upward for the next couple of weeks. At that point we may see something that will indicate further bullish or bearish activity.

It is important to understand that I only occasionally look at the market in longer term phases. Those times are almost always coincident with what I call Lindsay Tops or Bottoms (as mentioned earlier.) Generally, I am concerned with intermediate trends, those that last from about 6 to 20 weeks.