Monday, March 29, 2010


GNVC is getting pummeled after hours due to the failure of its pancreatic cancer therapy.  Some comments and suggestions:

First of all, GNVC is more then a one trick pony; they have other drugs in their pipeline, including big pharma partners.  Don't panic, in fact, this could be a buying opportunity.

Second, if GNVC is part of a Biotechnology Basket, it represents only 12.5% of the portfolio; this is one reason to play these speculative biotech's as part of a basket.

Third, if you are following the Trend Models, GNVC went into this announcement with both the Daily and Weekly trends SHORT:

The models had no clue that this trial would fail, but they did detect persistent enough selling in the stock to cause both models to be in SELL modes.  Not a coincidence.  Same holds true for stocks that are reflecting persistent strength, they are in BUY modes.  Respect the models.

What to do now?

Think about whether or not this is a buying opportunity and/or wait for the Daily Trend Model to turn up again.

Or move on. There are plenty of stocks in the Biotech Basket in strong uptrends already, if you are so inclined.


Anonymous said...

ok,i wont panic. thanks for the update.

A said...

Links to GNVC reports:

Anonymous said...

but what about CYTX,look what happened there?!

Anonymous said...

Allan, what does this say about other risky biotech stocks in your portfolio?

Can we expect investors to start selling other companies with questionable cures to avoid a similar fate?

A said...

Isn't that the obvious inference?

And if its obvious, then isn't it obviously wrong?

A time to be level headed, follow the trend models and not worry about what could go wrong, imagine what could go right.

Anonymous said...

si non proposui et silere feci animam meam sicut ablactatus ad matrem suam ita ablactata ad me anima mea

A tisket a tasket, a green and yellow basket--common sense kindergarten.

We shall initiate new GNVC position using green from having playfully managed the ongoing NNVC position.

childlike jazz

Thanks Allan. Light and love to you and yours this season of liberation.

Anonymous said...

Looks like a buy at below .80 and will look to their other ponies to pull it back up..

SteveKore said...

Dear Anonymous dude:

"A tisket a tasket"? Really? You found that to be insightful? Well, since you've put it that way, the quick $8000 GNVC beating I took yesterday while I was undergoing some reasonably serious medical tests doesn't seem so bad at all.

This type of "look how smart I am" comment is getting out of hand. It's not helpful to anybody. If you want to be helpful, try analyzing the situation intelligently and give an educated opinion as to why you would buy, hold, or sell GNVC at this point.

In the nutshell, stop using foreign languages, stop quoting the freakin' Biblia, and stop with all the damn links. We know how to use Youtube - leave the links to Allan.

Do I sound like a guy who woke up on the wrong side of the bed? Yep, i am. But that doesn't change the fact that your post is useless sycophantic drivel.

And, "Light and love to you and yours this season of liberation"? Please, stop the madness...

P.S. - I apologize to anybody who found his post to be entertaining and insightful.

Anonymous said...


I agree with you.
Not everyone rolls so easily with the punches when they lose a substantial amount of money.

I know we shall all be fine, life goes on...ect..ect..

but please...

Anonymous said...

I get screwed by GNVC, ouch ...

Anonymous said...

Allan, got any more recommendations like GNVC?

A said...

I took a hit on this one too, although not nearly as bad as it would have been without the Trend Models warning me that the trend had turned down on all intermediate time frames.

I rejected a couple of dumb and slanderous Comments, full of lies, hate and bizarre accusations about this stock. To the senders, get some psychological or spiritual help, if not for yourself, for your family and loved ones. Sick is a four letter word, as is Well.

A said...

Yes, I sent out the Biotechnology Basket's trend models' to subscribers early this morning. All daily and weekly trends are clearly set out, with corresponding reversal levels, even a "Buy" level for GNVC. Thanks for asking.

Anonymous said...

Trend models? It's down on the poor test results.

It's not due to any trend.

Anonymous said...

This is your blog and therefore I appreciate your ability to "reject" certain comments that you feel are inappropriate.

However, I feel like I raised a serious question that deserves an answer. Especially for a paying subscriber. In previous posts you have stated that you will not sell NNVC until it hits $100 and that you prefer to not look at it too often so as not to get suckered into selling.

My question is this: will you sell NNVC if your trend models turn to a "sell"? If you will, you are going back on your previous posts regarding NNVC and if you will not sell, then will you let us subscribers know that you are not selling?

Like I mentioned in my previous post, I feel a little misled by your huge praise and recommendation
for GNVC, followed by an " I told you so" when refering to the weekly/daily trend for GNVC being a "sell". Go back and look at your posts. You were recommending GNVC even when it was in a "sell" trend.

I am utterly confused. My fear is that you will hype NNVC (or any other stock)to the max and then quietly sneek out while we burn like we have with GNVC.

I hope this post is not too offensive for you to actually acknowledge it.

A said...

I will not sell NNVC unless it hits $100 or unless something fundamental in its story changes my view of it.

As for you, you should do whatever you feel like with NNVC, I am not you and do not share your risk tolerance levels, I have my own to deal with. I did want to share this email with you though, came in tonight:

"Hi Allan - Luckily, I followed the trend on GNVC and got out for a 48% gain. THANKS!!! "

So my information was helpful to at least one subscriber, though I expect that there are many more like him. It's good stuff, if you are open to it.

Anonymous said...

Allan, we know from your archives that you sold shares of NNVC went they went over $3. Isn't saying you would "never sell" a bit disingenuous, since you already have sold NNVC shares?

There's a lot of chatter going on between your subscribers lately, so if you don't want to post this one, don't worry. They know the score.

A said...

That was then, this is now.