I'm back in the saddle again
Out where a friend is a friend
Where the longhorn cattle feed
On the lowly gypsum weed
Back in the saddle again
---Gene Autry
Back at the trading station this week, January's always feel the same. First thoughts of gathering records up for the tax man. The charm of December's first snow has melted into grey dirty slush and finally, at the whim of a rainstorm, it's gone. Then there is the spate of three day weekends ahead, too many, too vague and Monday's are usually so much better for trading then Tuesdays, oh damn, too much griping for a Friday blog.
Harry Dent's January issue is out, he's looking for 15,000 on the DJIA by August. That's a huge move and the guy sometimes gets it right. How does the DOW go to 15,000 without GM? It doesn't. (Hint, Hint).
NNVC is back over a buck a share. This is on virtually no news. Something is going to give here, either news or the price. Again, I think it can go either way, huge opportunity AND risk. You decide.
SMTR and WAVR biding, falling, stagnating. Nothing changed in this picture. Waiting for ignition, blast-off, but also acknowledging they could be duds. They are high leverage, bull market plays. Remember, we are rolling the dice on these two, so don't worry.
First three days of the new year have been great for my kind of daytrading. The take-away from this small sample of trading is that something may be different this time. Say, the beginning of the Wolanchuk-Dent Bull Market of Epic Proportions.
Let's make it happen, team.
A
Friday, January 06, 2006
Monday, January 02, 2006
Standing on the Corner
Standing on the corner
Watching all the girls go by...
--Perry Como
Well, it's not exactly the corner, it's the Green Carpet Room of United Airlines at Chicago's O'Hare airport, or is it a Red Carpet Room? I'm red-green color blind, but they let me in anyway. I have 4 1/2 hours before my flight to Denver, then back to Washington State for the new year of trading. What a fiasco UAL is, two of us flying out from the West Coast to the East Coast and back this holiday, only one of three legs went as planned, the other three a debacle of monentous proportions. As passengers, why is it that we know more then United about what flights are available, what routes and other airlines are open and doable and why holding one plane at the gate 15 minutes will save a dozen passengers from missing connections and having to stay overnight, and in one sad case, take a family 5 days to get from Chicago to San Diego? Probably the worst of it was last night, when a Customer Service rep for United printed out the wrong Hotel voucher, hand wrote "Hyatt Regency" over the incorrect hotel and said, "Don't worry, they will take it." They didn't. And it was pouring buckets, icy buckets and two long blocks to the other hotel. My bad, though. I knew better then to take a hand written voucher to the Hyatt. Back to my point, why do us passengers know more about how to run an airline then the angry, miserable creatures from hell who work there?
On to trading. I was asked by a friend, a very good trader, how my return was in my daytrading account last year, 2005. It looks to be a bit over 200% on my preliminary work-up. But that understates things, I rarely if ever used 100% of my buying power, usually about half of it. Still, he sounded disappointed, thought that based on all the time and effort I was putting into daytrading, it should be higher. What do you think? My guess is that most anyone in this business would give their right arm for those kind of returns. Yes, I wake up at 4:30AM (PT) and am not really done until an hour into the after-hours. But I also love what I do, with a passion, so I spend another 2-3 hours a day doing research, backtesting and evaluation of new ideas. That goes for weekends too.
My 17-year-old daughter's boyfriend totalled the 2003 BMW 330i I had given her to drive when I left 18 months ago. The guiltmobile. So I'm buying her a 2006 Honda Civic, Motor Trend's "Car of the Year." Guiltmobile II. This is why we trade. There is nothing in life that doesn't go better with wealth. Nothing. Even in death, those left behind are given upgrades to first class to soothe the loss, if the numbers are there. Like my father before me, I am determined to make those numbers work, I think its called a legacy. In any case, I had a nice eight days with my daughters, 17 and 15 respectively. I gave them some cash, bought them cell phones and clothes and a lot of nice meals, and despite all the materialistic overtones, we shared a visable, feeling, real love for each other. So what's a few miles got to do with it? Being apart, well, it's inevitable. Being a part of each other, priceless.
A
Watching all the girls go by...
--Perry Como
Well, it's not exactly the corner, it's the Green Carpet Room of United Airlines at Chicago's O'Hare airport, or is it a Red Carpet Room? I'm red-green color blind, but they let me in anyway. I have 4 1/2 hours before my flight to Denver, then back to Washington State for the new year of trading. What a fiasco UAL is, two of us flying out from the West Coast to the East Coast and back this holiday, only one of three legs went as planned, the other three a debacle of monentous proportions. As passengers, why is it that we know more then United about what flights are available, what routes and other airlines are open and doable and why holding one plane at the gate 15 minutes will save a dozen passengers from missing connections and having to stay overnight, and in one sad case, take a family 5 days to get from Chicago to San Diego? Probably the worst of it was last night, when a Customer Service rep for United printed out the wrong Hotel voucher, hand wrote "Hyatt Regency" over the incorrect hotel and said, "Don't worry, they will take it." They didn't. And it was pouring buckets, icy buckets and two long blocks to the other hotel. My bad, though. I knew better then to take a hand written voucher to the Hyatt. Back to my point, why do us passengers know more about how to run an airline then the angry, miserable creatures from hell who work there?
On to trading. I was asked by a friend, a very good trader, how my return was in my daytrading account last year, 2005. It looks to be a bit over 200% on my preliminary work-up. But that understates things, I rarely if ever used 100% of my buying power, usually about half of it. Still, he sounded disappointed, thought that based on all the time and effort I was putting into daytrading, it should be higher. What do you think? My guess is that most anyone in this business would give their right arm for those kind of returns. Yes, I wake up at 4:30AM (PT) and am not really done until an hour into the after-hours. But I also love what I do, with a passion, so I spend another 2-3 hours a day doing research, backtesting and evaluation of new ideas. That goes for weekends too.
My 17-year-old daughter's boyfriend totalled the 2003 BMW 330i I had given her to drive when I left 18 months ago. The guiltmobile. So I'm buying her a 2006 Honda Civic, Motor Trend's "Car of the Year." Guiltmobile II. This is why we trade. There is nothing in life that doesn't go better with wealth. Nothing. Even in death, those left behind are given upgrades to first class to soothe the loss, if the numbers are there. Like my father before me, I am determined to make those numbers work, I think its called a legacy. In any case, I had a nice eight days with my daughters, 17 and 15 respectively. I gave them some cash, bought them cell phones and clothes and a lot of nice meals, and despite all the materialistic overtones, we shared a visable, feeling, real love for each other. So what's a few miles got to do with it? Being apart, well, it's inevitable. Being a part of each other, priceless.
A
Monday, December 19, 2005
Fireflies
Some random musings on a Monday:
Where did the ads go? Google suspended my participation in their Ad-sense program, apparently they already had their quota of Jews. Oh, they guised the real reason, said I had violated their rules. Yes, I clicked on an ad for a product advertised on my blog, actually bought it. Buying an advertised product is a violation of rules? I like my reason better.
My Lumbago has been intolerable for the past few months. I lasted seven minutes in a MRI machine in October, can you spell claustrophobia with Nurse Ratchet bellowing, "Don't move, Don't Move," through the tunnel from hell. The only thing that has worked for me is a narcotic analgesic. Habit forming. Stopped it cold turkey this weekend after at least four months of daily use. My body is pissed-off, big time.
NNVC. Ilene has sold just about all of hers, very skeptical. She's the science part of this brain trust. I'm the dreamer, holding on to my core position, still. This one can go either way, so Buyers and Sellers, beware.
Did a tax recap over the weekend (not a good weekend to go cold turkey anything) and have generated another six figure year daytrading. Not gloating, just saying it can be done. Mine isn't the only way, but it is mine, created out of the thin air by thinkin'. Go for it.
Planning to spend end of year on the beach in South Carolina. Going to watch my daughter play some high school basketball. She's starting point guard. Called me Saturday to say she was MVP at a tournament last week. Here come those tears again.
A
Where did the ads go? Google suspended my participation in their Ad-sense program, apparently they already had their quota of Jews. Oh, they guised the real reason, said I had violated their rules. Yes, I clicked on an ad for a product advertised on my blog, actually bought it. Buying an advertised product is a violation of rules? I like my reason better.
My Lumbago has been intolerable for the past few months. I lasted seven minutes in a MRI machine in October, can you spell claustrophobia with Nurse Ratchet bellowing, "Don't move, Don't Move," through the tunnel from hell. The only thing that has worked for me is a narcotic analgesic. Habit forming. Stopped it cold turkey this weekend after at least four months of daily use. My body is pissed-off, big time.
NNVC. Ilene has sold just about all of hers, very skeptical. She's the science part of this brain trust. I'm the dreamer, holding on to my core position, still. This one can go either way, so Buyers and Sellers, beware.
Did a tax recap over the weekend (not a good weekend to go cold turkey anything) and have generated another six figure year daytrading. Not gloating, just saying it can be done. Mine isn't the only way, but it is mine, created out of the thin air by thinkin'. Go for it.
Planning to spend end of year on the beach in South Carolina. Going to watch my daughter play some high school basketball. She's starting point guard. Called me Saturday to say she was MVP at a tournament last week. Here come those tears again.
A
Monday, December 12, 2005
For What It's Worth
There's something happening here,
What it is ain't exactly clear.....
----Buffalo Springfield
Gold is up 5% since the posting of my Gold Blog. The XAU is up about 5% as well, my calls up close to 50%.
DSCO is up near 5% from Ilene's heads-up Blog.
ITWO is up 15% from the I-Buys covered in this Blog.
Stay tuned.
A
What it is ain't exactly clear.....
----Buffalo Springfield
Gold is up 5% since the posting of my Gold Blog. The XAU is up about 5% as well, my calls up close to 50%.
DSCO is up near 5% from Ilene's heads-up Blog.
ITWO is up 15% from the I-Buys covered in this Blog.
Stay tuned.
A
Saturday, December 10, 2005
Psychology of Investing
On the recommendation of my long time friend and trading collaborator, John Kercheval, Adjunct Professional Lecturer at Georgetown, I have been reading The Psychology of Investing by John R. Nofsinger. At barely 100 pages, paperback and costing $34, it better contain something tradable. It does.
Here's an example, appropriate for end of year tax selling. Chapter 3 is about, "Pride and Regret." It sets out the psychological basis by which most investors sell winners too soon and hang on to losers too long. Winners generate pride, losers generate regret. We are programmed to seek pride and avoid regret. But if you do the numbers, it is almost always financially correct to do the opposite, hang on to winners and sell losers. Winners tend to continue going up after the sale, losers tend to continue going down while still being held. Taxes take a chunk out of the winner's proceeds and losers offer no tax advantage by being held. Yet investors are typically overwhelmed by their embedded desire to seek pride (sell the winner) and avoid regret (hang on to the loser). Worth $34 to be aware of this sort of behavioral bias? You bettcha.
That was a summary of just one chapter of ten in this book. The nine others similarly contain tradable observations about the human condition and how it works against even the best and brightest traders/investors. Although not yet through the book, I wanted to bring it to everyone's attention and to thank John publically for bringing it to mine. A good tip doesn't always have to involve a stock.
A
Here's an example, appropriate for end of year tax selling. Chapter 3 is about, "Pride and Regret." It sets out the psychological basis by which most investors sell winners too soon and hang on to losers too long. Winners generate pride, losers generate regret. We are programmed to seek pride and avoid regret. But if you do the numbers, it is almost always financially correct to do the opposite, hang on to winners and sell losers. Winners tend to continue going up after the sale, losers tend to continue going down while still being held. Taxes take a chunk out of the winner's proceeds and losers offer no tax advantage by being held. Yet investors are typically overwhelmed by their embedded desire to seek pride (sell the winner) and avoid regret (hang on to the loser). Worth $34 to be aware of this sort of behavioral bias? You bettcha.
That was a summary of just one chapter of ten in this book. The nine others similarly contain tradable observations about the human condition and how it works against even the best and brightest traders/investors. Although not yet through the book, I wanted to bring it to everyone's attention and to thank John publically for bringing it to mine. A good tip doesn't always have to involve a stock.
A
Wednesday, December 07, 2005
DSCO Update - by Ilene
We like DSCO as a still unknown bird flu play, but we like it even more for its potential to bring to market blockbuster $1B+ treatments for respiratory illnesses.
Discovery Labs (DSCO) has some significant events coming up in the near future. We're hoping for final approval of Surfaxin for Respiratory Distress Syndrome in infants in April, 2006. The results of the phase II trial of Surfaxin in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) should also become available early next year. With DSCO trading at around $7, the market cap is around $400M. The company's synthetic surfactant products, already shown to be effective in infant RDS, are being clinically tested for numerous indications, and if effective, may expand the current annual surfactant market to over $1.5 billion.
There's a tremendous need for treatment for ARDS, regardless of avian flu pandemics and our speculation of it's potential usefulness. ARDS in adults is a life-threatening disorder for which no approved therapies exist. It can be caused by a variety of insults to the lungs, including illnesses such as pneumonia and septic shock (a toxic condition caused by infection), and events such as smoke inhalation, near drowning, industrial accidents.
Background on Natural Lung Surfactants (from the website)
Surfactants are protein/lipid compositions that are produced naturally in the lungs and are critical to the lungs’ ability to absorb oxygen. They cover the entire alveolar surface of the lungs and the terminal conducting airways leading to the alveoli. Surfactants facilitate respiration by continually modifying the surface tension of the fluid normally present within the alveoli. In the absence of sufficient surfactant, or should the surfactant degrade, the alveoli tend to collapse and the lungs do not absorb sufficient oxygen.
By lowering the surface tension of the terminal conducting airways, surfactant maintains patency — keeps airways open. Loss of patency leads to compromised pulmonary function.
Pulmonary surfactant has additional properties, such as:
1. Physical barrier to inhaled particles and noxious agents
2. Enhancement of particle clearance
3. Host defense against infection
4. Anti-inflammatory properties
LINKS:
For a summary of the conference call, go to yahoo's dsco message board: . The poster, md4neon8s, has been called "the most knowledgeable neonatologist that he (a physician) knows (personally)," by Tom Bishop, the editor of BI Research. In a note to his subscribers, Tom referenced a conversation I started with md4neon8s, which Allan provided a link to.
For a complete update, listen to today's conference call.
For a complete description of the company, visit their website.
Discovery Labs (DSCO) has some significant events coming up in the near future. We're hoping for final approval of Surfaxin for Respiratory Distress Syndrome in infants in April, 2006. The results of the phase II trial of Surfaxin in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) should also become available early next year. With DSCO trading at around $7, the market cap is around $400M. The company's synthetic surfactant products, already shown to be effective in infant RDS, are being clinically tested for numerous indications, and if effective, may expand the current annual surfactant market to over $1.5 billion.
There's a tremendous need for treatment for ARDS, regardless of avian flu pandemics and our speculation of it's potential usefulness. ARDS in adults is a life-threatening disorder for which no approved therapies exist. It can be caused by a variety of insults to the lungs, including illnesses such as pneumonia and septic shock (a toxic condition caused by infection), and events such as smoke inhalation, near drowning, industrial accidents.
Background on Natural Lung Surfactants (from the website)
Surfactants are protein/lipid compositions that are produced naturally in the lungs and are critical to the lungs’ ability to absorb oxygen. They cover the entire alveolar surface of the lungs and the terminal conducting airways leading to the alveoli. Surfactants facilitate respiration by continually modifying the surface tension of the fluid normally present within the alveoli. In the absence of sufficient surfactant, or should the surfactant degrade, the alveoli tend to collapse and the lungs do not absorb sufficient oxygen.
By lowering the surface tension of the terminal conducting airways, surfactant maintains patency — keeps airways open. Loss of patency leads to compromised pulmonary function.
Pulmonary surfactant has additional properties, such as:
1. Physical barrier to inhaled particles and noxious agents
2. Enhancement of particle clearance
3. Host defense against infection
4. Anti-inflammatory properties
LINKS:
For a summary of the conference call, go to yahoo's dsco message board: . The poster, md4neon8s, has been called "the most knowledgeable neonatologist that he (a physician) knows (personally)," by Tom Bishop, the editor of BI Research. In a note to his subscribers, Tom referenced a conversation I started with md4neon8s, which Allan provided a link to.
For a complete update, listen to today's conference call.
For a complete description of the company, visit their website.
Got Gold?
I ask that question because Gold is in a bull market and my guess is most of you have very little if any exposure to Gold in your portfolios. As for me, guilty as charged. I have some inconsequential positions in Glamis Gold (GLG) and Coeur D'Alene Mines (CDE), but not enough based on the strength of the Gold chart.
Accordingly, today I'm adding some calls in the XAU index (February 130's), based on the same bull market leverage theory espoused in this prior blog. I am also on the prowl for additional stocks with significant leverage should the bull market in Gold accelerate in the months ahead.
Any gold bugs among my readers, please feel free to contribute your favorite names below in the Comments section. Gold may very well be another ticket to ten-bagger paradise.
A
Accordingly, today I'm adding some calls in the XAU index (February 130's), based on the same bull market leverage theory espoused in this prior blog. I am also on the prowl for additional stocks with significant leverage should the bull market in Gold accelerate in the months ahead.
Any gold bugs among my readers, please feel free to contribute your favorite names below in the Comments section. Gold may very well be another ticket to ten-bagger paradise.
A
Tuesday, December 06, 2005
SMTR
In looking for a third speculative play to join NNVC and WAVR in the portfolio, I ran across a post by Don Wolanchuk today, suggesting that he was buying SMTR under 9 cents, since once above 10 cents, it would be untouchable. A little due diligence turned up this very bullish report on SmartTire Systems.
Now we have three, one already a 10-bagger, but looking for ten more and two on their way. Thus, sufficiently diversified in the speculative arena, we can return our attention to run-of-the-mill trading, which will serve to keep us occupied while the Pinta, Nina and Santa Maria sail in.
A
Now we have three, one already a 10-bagger, but looking for ten more and two on their way. Thus, sufficiently diversified in the speculative arena, we can return our attention to run-of-the-mill trading, which will serve to keep us occupied while the Pinta, Nina and Santa Maria sail in.
A
Friday, December 02, 2005
Leveraging the Bull
Harry Dent's December missive to subscribers was about how the major indexes have broken out and he is sticking to his DOW 14,000 - 15,000 range by August, 2006. As you should know by now, my style of trading doesn't rely upon market direction as a major contributor to success, although it does help somewhat to be on the right side of the trend. Nonetheless, a rip-roaring bull market, the type that Harry Dent and Don Wolanchuk are suggesting are in the cards for us, begs the question, how to make the most of the coming fireworks?
One way is by leverage. Low-priced stocks, options, futures and options on futures all provide significant leverage in the direction of the major trend. Maybe the trickiest of the lot are low-priced stocks, the good, the bad and the ugly. We already have NNVC on our plate, hopefully in the realm of the good. Here's another one, courtesy of the aforementioned Don Wolanchuk: WAVR.
Waverider Communications from their website:
WaveRider Communications Inc. is the world leader in non-line-of-sight wireless broadband technology and deployments. With WaveRider's industry-leading product line and strong management team, the company is positioned for growth and to compete successfully in the world broadband market.
The link above takes you to their web site and that was my first stop before buying my initial position in the company. I like the fact that it's only about 15 cents a share and that Don is pounding the table on the stock. I also like the fact that WAVR was a $6.00 stock in May, 2003 and a lot higher then that in the go-go year of 2000.
It's a roll of the dice, but that's what we do in a bull market, right?
A
One way is by leverage. Low-priced stocks, options, futures and options on futures all provide significant leverage in the direction of the major trend. Maybe the trickiest of the lot are low-priced stocks, the good, the bad and the ugly. We already have NNVC on our plate, hopefully in the realm of the good. Here's another one, courtesy of the aforementioned Don Wolanchuk: WAVR.
Waverider Communications from their website:
WaveRider Communications Inc. is the world leader in non-line-of-sight wireless broadband technology and deployments. With WaveRider's industry-leading product line and strong management team, the company is positioned for growth and to compete successfully in the world broadband market.
The link above takes you to their web site and that was my first stop before buying my initial position in the company. I like the fact that it's only about 15 cents a share and that Don is pounding the table on the stock. I also like the fact that WAVR was a $6.00 stock in May, 2003 and a lot higher then that in the go-go year of 2000.
It's a roll of the dice, but that's what we do in a bull market, right?
A
Thursday, December 01, 2005
NNVC
A few days ago I sold a small portion of my NNVC holdings above $1.00/share. Today, I'm strating to buy those shares back, under $0.70/share.
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