Where am I going?

The last day at the beach began with grace bestowed beneath an orange morning sky. The divine gifts of sunrise, of seabirds and of that calming cadence, the symphony that is the ocean. Two daughters and a father, a moment frozen in this snapshot of three lives.

In the Charleston drizzle we say our good-byes and soon my plane soars above the clouds. Around me strangers travel with their own tales and woes. I try not to think too much. Say yes to a Jack and ginger ale. Why have I left them behind once again? Where am I going and why am I going there? When the Jack comes, these questions will fall away unanswered and I will kick them beneath my seat.

"We Bought a Zoo," is shown hanging from a screen from the first class cabin. Matt Damon and his two children buy a zoo to move on, to ease the loss of their mother, though nothing can ease such pain. The story is about living from your heart, not you head, living not in the past but in the present on your path to the future. At the end of the movie Damon takes his son and daughter to the spot where he first saw, then talked to their mother. He finds 20 seconds of courage and the words to fill them. "Why would such a beautiful woman talk to a person like me?" She looks up, sees his heart through his eyes and answers, "Why not?"

We didn't get to land in Phoenix, not as Delta planned. A wind shear swept under the nose of the plane just 200 feet from setting down on the Sky Harbor runway. Divert to Tucson. Strangers on a plane become intimate friends flirting with, then avoiding disaster. We were in the hands of a talented crew well trained to save lives. In Tucson we mingled while men in green overalls refueled the plane for the 90 mile jaunt back to Sky Harbor in Phoenix. This time we touched down and the baggage was unloaded. Two hundred twenty stories scurried into the waiting embraces of friends, families and rental car shuttles. Not a seabird was seen among them.

I'm tired, my years dwindling, drifting away. Yet there was still joy to be made as six foot-prints worked a path through the sand. From under my seat I pulled out the one that asked, "Where are you going?" It's where I have always been going. A special place where someone cares that I have come home. Where she reaches out just to touch me and remind herself that I am real, that she found me and will never let me go. That is where I am going, whether I ever get there, or not.

Go
And beat your crazy head against the sky
Try
And see beyond the houses and your eyes
It's ok to shoot the moon

So darling
My darling be home soon

Folly Beach

Customer Service

Why is it that every time you call customer service for any product or service you are immediately solicited with a "brief" questionnaire about, "how we did?" I guess because no is bothering to answer these annoyance infringements on our time, they have changed tactics. Here is the newer, better, solicitation for our opinions of, "how we did?"


Dear Allan:

Thank you for contacting [name omitted because I don't want anyone to get hurt] Service and Support Department. Our records indicate that [let's just call him John Smith] was the primary representative who assisted you. Because providing excellent customer service is our prime objective, we would greatly appreciate it if you took a few moments to rate your experience with [XXX] and,in particular, John Smith.

Please click on the link shown below to complete the short list of questions. It's that easy, and, with only a few moments of your time, you'll be helping us provide the absolute best service possible. Please also note that John has a wife and two small children. Your refusal to participate in this survey will be interpreted as a failure of John to do his job and will result in his immediate dismissal from employment. His accounts will be frozen and his children removed from their home, becoming wards of the state. In addition, his wife Marie will be shipped to a Chinese shoe factory and John will be forced to move back in with his elderly parents, one of whom, your choice, will be shot.

Thank you for your time and assistance in this matter.

Lord Stanley's Cup

Wednesday starts the annual quest for the holy grail of ice hockey: The Stanley Cup. For those of us who care, this is our time of the year. Last team standing takes home the Cup:

Originally inscribed the Dominion Hockey Challenge Cup, the trophy was donated in 1892 by then-Governor General of Canada the Lord Stanley of Preston, as an award for Canada's top-ranking amateur ice hockey club.

The first Cup was won by the Montreal Hockey Club in 1893. My team, the Detroit Red Wings, have won the Cup 11 times, more than any other United States' based franchise. This year the Red Wings' players come from across the globe, including, Canada, Sweden, Russia, Finland, United States and Syracuse. Professional Ice Hockey has become a United Nations of boys on skates.

The actual word hockey was mentioned.......in 1363, when King Edward III of England issued a declaration banning a list of games: "moreover we ordain that you prohibit under penalty of imprisonment all and sundry from such stone, wood and iron throwing; handball, football, or hockey; coursing and cock-fighting, or other such idle games."

This is a special time of year in the hockey world. While mainstream media is filled with the banal and mundane, basketball and baseball, real men and women, those who know the difference between playing a game for money or playing a game for love, will be absorbed in two months of spiritual bliss: The Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Amen.

Sunday night, April 8, 2012

Shadows are fallin' and I've been here all day
It's too hot to sleep and time is runnin' away
Feel like my soul has turned into steel
I've still got the scars that the sun didn't heal
There's not even room enough to be anywhere
It's not dark yet but it's gettin' there.

Happiness in 12 Minutes

From my long-time friend, David Gordon, a 12-minute video that resonates and inspires, or as David so eloquently writes, "Clever, witty, entertaining....and worth every moment of the 12 minutes to learn whart Shawn Achor has to share."

http://eutrapelia.blogspot.com/2012/03/12-minutes-to-happiness.html

NVIV - Invivo Therapeutics

This is the kind of biotech that presents a compelling opportunity:

(1) Small market cap = $110M (about $2.15 per share);

(2) Product addresses market where there is no other functional treatments: Spinal Cord Injuries (SCI);

"Currently, there are no treatment options for SCI patients to successfully restore function following a spinal cord injury. Existing treatments consist of a collection of approaches that only focus on symptoms of SCI, such as decompression and mechanical stabilization of the spinal cord, rather than on the underlying pathology."

Company Web Site

(3) Product has been tested on animals and it works:

"InVivo has demonstrated the proof of concept for its SCI therapy in primate and rodent animal models. The company is the first in history to successfully demonstrate functional improvement in a paralyzed non-human primate and believes this model is the best surrogate for how the products will work in humans."

Company Web Site

(4) Huge market for product:

"The financial impact of spinal cord injury (SCI) is staggering, estimated to be between $244,000 and $829,000 in the first year alone and over a lifetime this could add up to between $1- $4 million. The annual global market for SCI is estimated at $10 billion. There are currently no successful treatment options for SCI patients"

- Tom Bishop, BI Research

(5) Outstanding Management

Frank Reynolds, CEO

"Mr. Reynolds is a co-inventor on four of InVivo’s patents and he is co-author and winner of the “2011 David F. Apple Award” given by the American Spinal Injury Association to the top published paper in the world for SCI research. He is the former Director of Global Business Development at Siemens Corporation where he had global responsibility for business development."

Bob Langer:

"Robert S. Langer is the David H. Koch Institute Professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) (being an Institute Professor is the highest honor that can be awarded to a faculty member). Dr. Langer has written over 1,100 articles. He also has approximately 760 issued and pending patents worldwide. Dr. Langer’s patents have been licensed or sublicensed to over 220 pharmaceutical, chemical, biotechnology and medical device companies.

"He served as a member of the United States Food and Drug Administration’s SCIENCE Board, the FDA’s highest advisory board, from 1995 — 2002 and as its Chairman from 1999- 2002."

Company Web Site

(6) Take-out candidate:

"Starting with our DCF model, we’ve increased sales by 20% to account for “overwhelming” promotion of a massive sales force like J&J (JNJ) or Medtronic (MDT). We’ve also removed future dilution and lowered the discount rate to account for a much lower cost of capital. Finally, we’ve reduce the S&GA expense figuring that a larger company will use representatives already in the field promoting products for spinal surgery, biomaterials, tissue engineering, or neurology. We arrive at a “take-out” value of $525 million, or $7.25 per share. We believe this is a price that a company like J&J or Medtronic could easily pay and still see accretion."

- Zacks

(7) Trend = LONG

Just Charts

NASDAQ Monthly

VALUE LINE Monthly

SLV Weekly

GLD Daily

AAPL Weekly

NVIV Daily - InVivo Therapeutics

"We are initiating coverage an establishing a near-term target of $4.50 per share based on DCF (rounding up slightly from the DCF). However, with the financing risk out of the way, perhaps later this year, and clear momentum on the clinical front, we think InVivo can trade as high as $7 per share on speculation of a take-out."

- Zacks Investment Research

NNVC - Update

Below is the NNVC 240 minute chart. The Elliott Wave pattern is very clean and the target for this move is $1.55. The potential for a Wave 4 retracement is to $0.80 and the NNVC Trend Model reverses short at $0.74. Thus the risk is about $0.20 for gain that projects to $1.55:

I don't like to trade out of NNVC because of news-factor. This is the kind of stock and company where a press release can come any day that would result in an overnight doubling of market cap. Still, if you are a believer in technical analysis, this is ample reason to be long the stock in here.

But there is more. Double the time frame to 480 minutes and you get the following chart:

It is very unusual for me to get the exact same wave count and the exact same price target when I double the time frame. This is impressive.

But there is more. Take a look at the 720 minute chart:

In all the years I have been doing this, I have never seen such consistency in EW structure and Fibonacci price targets when I increase the time frame three fold. That means, since it has never happened before, I don't really have a perspective on what it means. But my guess is that $1.55 is a solid a target and thus the risk:reward equation is a whole lot better then the simple 3:1 the first chart suggests.

My take on the fundamentals is written over on the right. It was written a long time ago. Nothing has changed. I own this stock....you bet I do.

Allan's Market Commentary

For those readers of AllAllan who are not subscribers to AllanTrends, below is my Market Close Update that was sent out today, February 15, 2012 after the close of trading. I'm posting it to illustrate the kind of content that is part of the subscription service as well as to give all the best trade of the year, which is not NNVC (although it might be) but is a call on a substantial increase in volatility, either just around the corner, or, it may have already begun.

New Daily Signals

X------->Short

Allan’s Market Commentary

The recent reversals LONG by the VXX Trading Models are all profitable, but it hasn’t been without a fight. There are a number of fundamental factors that have me once again on the edge of my seat, so I am comfortable holding VXX, TVIX and/or VXX calls, all LONG. Though my confidence in these positions is mechanical, objective and disciplined by the very nature and tenants of trend following, the fundamental backdrop is subjective, scarier and emotional.

(1) The Mideast. The rhetoric here is reminiscent of the times before major conflicts have erupted in the past, except now all sides possess weapons of mass destruction. This rhetoric might be subterfuge for a secret understanding among the parties to limit the animosities to inflammatory accusations, but if so, it is a dangerous game to be playing with irrational geopolitical forces. If there is no such tacit understanding, it is just a matter of time before all hell breaks loose.

(2) European Private Sector. One bank over there goes under and the global financial network begins playing dominos, or worse yet, “last bank/government/continent left standing.” It will begin while we in North America are asleep. The ensuing trend in our equity markets will be a whopper. We will make a fortune, at least on paper, as withdrawing from our accounts may become problematic.

(3) Black Swan Event. The above two situations are so ominous that there is a chance of some Black Swan event coming out of nowhere that triggers all of the above.

In light of precariousness of everything right now, I don’t see how you can’t have some hedge against the worst case basis: A six-month call on VXX at a minimum. As Nike promotes, “Just Do It.”

VXX Hourly

NNVC

TREND TABLE
[omitted, subscribers only]

Feb 15, 2012


TAGS: Black Swan, Market Close, New Daily Signals, VXX