Thursday, February 16, 2012

NNVC - Update

Below is the NNVC 240 minute chart. The Elliott Wave pattern is very clean and the target for this move is $1.55. The potential for a Wave 4 retracement is to $0.80 and the NNVC Trend Model reverses short at $0.74. Thus the risk is about $0.20 for gain that projects to $1.55:

I don't like to trade out of NNVC because of news-factor. This is the kind of stock and company where a press release can come any day that would result in an overnight doubling of market cap. Still, if you are a believer in technical analysis, this is ample reason to be long the stock in here.

But there is more. Double the time frame to 480 minutes and you get the following chart:

It is very unusual for me to get the exact same wave count and the exact same price target when I double the time frame. This is impressive.

But there is more. Take a look at the 720 minute chart:

In all the years I have been doing this, I have never seen such consistency in EW structure and Fibonacci price targets when I increase the time frame three fold. That means, since it has never happened before, I don't really have a perspective on what it means. But my guess is that $1.55 is a solid a target and thus the risk:reward equation is a whole lot better then the simple 3:1 the first chart suggests.

My take on the fundamentals is written over on the right. It was written a long time ago. Nothing has changed. I own this bet I do.

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