Tuesday, August 17, 2010


Below is the SPX_Weekly Trend Model which puts today's rally in perspective:

SPX Weekly Trend Model

But my favorite chart today is of the VXX_Daily Trend Model:

VXX Daily Trend Model

VXX traded above 35 in late May.  At those VXX highs, SPX was trading at about 1050.  That suggests that a 5% decline in the SPX could generate about a 50% advance in VXX.

My very short term VXX Trend Models are SHORT.  When they reverse LONG, the trade begins.



Anonymous said...

NNVC is a stupid stock, how can it jump from 1.09 to 1.30 today ???

A said...

Here is a link that might explain today's move:


Anonymous said...


Baring any more tricks

the cake might be done.


and lets say,for corresponding signals to your model ...

S+P high hit 1100 exactly and bounced down today.

If we get another hit at 1100 tomorrow as a double top - and Failure there

and it coincides with your short term trigger ??
timing wise.... that would do it for me.

something like that

Anonymous said...

Following Technical analysis closely on NNVC has been like TA 101.

If you just look at the wave counting,the fib price points, the trendlines, the bottom at 1.00,triggering a strong first thrust up,Watched For a 'Pullback'(wave 2) off this first thrust(wave 1)...and you can see and count the movement abc,holding at 1.09 support

and blast off....lets call this Wave 3...stopped (for now) at 1.30


look at a short time frame chart (60 minute or less) and see the first wave(wave 1) up settled at 1.30 following the initial spike.

and now you might have

subwave 1 of 5 of 3 going up.
Maybe tomorrow or soon,a subwave 2 pullback ... the 5 MA is at 1.20(1.17-1.20 zone is support)

the subwave 3 should be another big thrust Up to test the 200 MA at 1.41

jiggle there in the subwave 4 zone (1.37-1.45) and
for fun lets say subwave 5 of 5 of 3 hits the 50 MA area around 1.55-1.60

and this becomes your Wave 3

Wave 4 dips to the 200 MA at 1.40 and Wave 5 targets 1.70 S/R points.

TA 101

so far its been this clear to anticipate.

so far....

Anonymous said...

If I understand the above...it is 1.30 now and should go lower tomorrow to buy at the 1.20 level?

Anonymous said...

Where's the 100 level that was promised in 3 years fit into the wave structure?

Anonymous said...

"Promised"?? Or what, your money back?

Anonymous said...

"1.30 now and 1.20 tomorrow..." its Not that simple
you have to Watch the price action and see what happens.
My anticipation is based on possible scenario of elliott wave ,and price points.... but theres no tellin if this would happen tomorrow or the next day...it could happen slowly over a whole two day period or quickly in a few hours time.

the 50% retrace would go to around 1.19
but price could technically drop all the way back to 1.10 and still be called wave 2.... you just have to know how to read the chart with correct TA.

Its also possible that a big move up to target the 1.50 area could also be an ABC correction wave with the impending down trend movement Down from there. In which case NNVC could be hibernating this fall under a dollar.

but you watch each step one by one along the way

and the next step to watch is a small dip back to 1.20 area and a big move up to 1.45 area after that...is my best guess.

thats all I was saying. If youre waiting to buy NNVc your best chance was at 1.00 and today at 1.09

Anonymous said...

My best chance was to buy at 1.00...ok
but it might retrace to 1.10 which would be an excellent entry point, at least in my opinion.

Thanks for writing back.

Anonymous said...

so VIX up 7.3% and VXX up 4.3%.
Yesterday vix up, vxx down..

interesting "dis...correlation"