Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Shorter term trends - Stocks

Yesterday I posted the ETF performance table that I send out to my private email list after the close every day.  Today I am posting the Stocks table with current signals and performance. 

The Daily Signal represents the current signal and trend for each stock. The Entry Price represents the closing price of the stock on the day the signal was generated.  The Daily Reversal is the price level where the trend changes.  As with the yesterday's table,  reversal levels change daily, so please do not rely on the listed Daily Reversal levels.  The reversals are updated after the close every day and sent to subscribers.The color codes designate a certain feature of each stock's trend, again, proprietary and reserved for subscribers.  The Daily Returns represent the net percentage return from inception of the current trade.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 

There are 21 winning signals against 3 losses.  Yesterday, the ETF table showed 19 wins and 0 losses.  These results should not come as any surprise, since the market has been in a down trend since August 9th.  Still, not a bad showing for a simple, objective, mechanical trading regimen.

Selected Charts





Anonymous said...

Beside the fact that you buy NNVC to hold it, are you still long NNVC regarding to your daily trend following model?
On a daily chart, on today's close, the ATR model tells me to be short NNVC.
I'm just curious to see if I have the same as you on a daily chart.
Here is what I get:
(Period:7 days; multiplier: 1.5)

Anonymous said...

dude, we are loading up at 1.08
it is on firesale !!!

A said...

Your model looks good, nice job! My settings are a little different, with a SELL not quite triggered yet, but close.

As for my own trading, as I have said many times, I am basically a Buy & Holder of NNVC, but I can afford to be with some really cheap shares anchoring my stock holdings. For others who came later to this stock, using the Daily Trend Model makes a lot of sense. NNVC isn't going to fly off the shelf without it taking trend followers with it. Meanwhile, you can dodge a lot of the downside volatility.

I expect great things out of this company in the coming 6-12 months with the stock commensurately moving higher.


Anonymous said...

Sweet! Thanks for the feedback Allan!
I wish we could run to down side till the major resistance at 0.8 (which would be a damn sweet entry point), though I feel like the resistance at 1.0 will be hard to break... Plus a move 'a la August 12th 2010' is far from impossible...

Anonymous said...

As I have come later in the NNVC buying, I am in the red.
If I sell now, because the daily models are reversing, will that not be a loss for me?

Is it not better to hold and wait till I am in the green again?

And to buy at lower prices?

A said...

There are two considerations here:

(1) NNVC's longer-term prospects. The anti-viral market is $60B. If they capture just 10% of that market, they have $6B in sales. Ergo, my forecast of $100 by 2014.

(2) Trend Following. If you are applying trend following principles to your stocks, all your stocks, you take the signals without regard to whether you are holding at a profit or loss.

I've chosen alternative #1, despite being an outspoken advocate of trend following. That's me. We all have our own individual temperaments when it comes to money and investing, some will go with #1 above, others with #2, whichever one "feels" better for each individual.


Anonymous said...

Formula is very very easy
Hold a core position (Do not touch)
Make your trading in the same quantity
Now How to trade NNVC?
Very simple
The trend models supplied by Allan at
his subscription service are really very fantastic especially with NNVC
Wait till the daily buy triggers and buy then take your profit after 2-3 days then wait for a pull back then buy and sell in a one day frame then dont do any thing during the reversal daily sell triggers and untill the reversal daily buy triggers....
Very easy
After all, thanks Allan for everything
call me Serge