Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Bird Flu, Round 2

I'm watching the PIstons-Heat-Ducks-Oilers so no time for links, but human to human transmission is being reported in Indonesia. As a result, two stocks in our bird flu basket, NVAX and BCRX were up about 15% late today. This could be the beginning of Round 2 in bird flu investing opportunities. The names we like are in the archives, just do a bird flu search of this blog. I bought more NVAX late today as soon as I saw the news on brieifing, paying $4.55/share. It closed in after-hours trading at $5.29. If this is another round of bird flu stock speculation, it is still early and 15% or better runs per day will be the norm. Back to the games.



Anonymous said...

Good for you Allan. I didn't buy at $4.55 and I do not like to chase a stock that's already taken off.

Anonymous said...

What about GNBT?

A said...

What about GNBT?

The market speaks: GNBT +12% this morning.

Don't forget NNVC, which is knee-deep in SE Asia with their developmental stage bird flu viricides.


Anonymous said...

This is a weird place to be. My mid-term bird flu basket -- GILD, AVAN, AVII, BCRX -- had taken one of those "bloody, trembling shadow of its former self" beatings over the past month. Down, in fact, a gut-wrentching 25%. It was all I could do to not cut and run. Today, they're all up 4-15%. Still a long way to go just to get to break even, but if BF turns out even half as bad as many think, who knows the ceiling will be. And yet, I can't help but mourn at what the reality of that will mean.

Anonymous said...

its wise not to get too happy about reaping financial gains from your bird flu portfolio. The irony will be that you get it and suffer while your wealth increases.

Anonymous said...

NNVC is at a good price today, lags the others by a day right now.

Anonymous said...

Another to add to your list.....PPHM

Anonymous said...

Do you know that 'bird flu' was discovered in Vietnam 9 years ago?

Do you know that barely 100 people have died in the whole world in all that time?

Do you know that it was the Americans who alerted us to the efficacy of the human antiviral TAMIFLU as a preventative.

Do you know that TAMIFLU barely alleviates some symptoms of the common flu?

Do you know that its efficacy against the common flu is questioned by a great part of the scientific community?

Do you know that against a SUPPOSED mutant virus such as H5N1, TAMIFLU barely alleviates the illness?

Do you know that to date Avian Flu affects birds only?

Do you know who markets TAMIFLU?


Do you know who bought the patent for TAMIFLU from ROCHE LABORATORIES in


Do you know who was the then president of GILEAD SCIENCES INC. and remains a major shareholder?

DONALD RUMSFELD, the present Secretary of Defence of the USA.

Do you know that the base of TAMIFLU is crushed aniseed?

Do you know who controls 90% of the world's production of this tree?


Do you know that sales of TAMIFLU were over $254 million in 2004 and more than $1000 million in 2005?

Do you know how many more millions ROCHE can earn in the coming months if the business of fear continues?

So the summary of the story is as follows:

Bush's friends decide that the medicine TAMIFLU is the solution for a pandemic that has not yet occurred and that has caused a hundred deaths worldwide in 9 years.

This medicine doesn't so much as cure the common flu.

In normal conditions the virus does not affect humans.

Rumsfeld sells the patent for TAMIFLU to ROCHE for which they pay him a fortune. Roche acquires 90% of the global production of crushed aniseed, the base for the antivirus.

The governments of the entire world threaten a pandemic and then buy industrial quantities of the product from Roche.

So we end up paying for medicine while Rumsfeld, Cheney and Bush do the business.