PBTH & VPHM

 PBTH

Fundamentals:


Pipeline Covering An Existing $25 billion Market

Human growth hormone ($3 billion market, entering Phase II) that could potentially be injected twice per month instead of daily injections. Interferon beta for multiple sclerosis ($4.5 billion market) that may have dramatically lower side effects. Our CTP-enhanced therapeutic proteins pipeline has the potential to dominate a $25 billion market.

CTP -- Nature's Solution To Proteins' Longevity

CTP is a small peptide naturally found in the body as a portion of the hormone hCG, and in fact provides hCG with its superior longevity. We attach CTP to other proteins and significantly increase their lonevity as well.

Merck's FSH-CTP Approved In Europe Jan 2010

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Trend Models

VPHM

Fundamentals:  

This is a list of insider-Buys for VPHM for the past year.  Note that the last time the "Baker Brothers" (10% owner) bought shares was a year ago and at $6 a share.  One year later and at $13 a share, they are buying again.  Note also the size of the I-Buy, almost 2,000,000 shares, way more then a year ago at half the share price.  Significant? 

Trend Models

An interesting feature shared by both of these picks is that both company's are making presentations at Biotechnology conferences this week, VPHM on Tuesday and PBTH on Wednesday. Two stocks with their own stories to tell and possibly catapult respective share prices.  Its the game we choose to play.


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Art for Art's sake

As an undergraduate student at the University of Michigan in early 1970, I took a number of film classes, including a cinematography course taught by George Manupelli:

"Manupelli's movies are overlooked treasures in the history of experimental film and the burgeoning independent feature film movement of the late '60s and early '70s."

What I remember most from Manupelli's course was the introduction and perspective to film that Manupelli gave in the first lecture.  "What are you doing here and what to you hope to achieve my taking my course in film?"  The answer given by Manupelli has stayed with me all of these years: We are here for art; we create art, experience art and study art, for art's sake.

Since that moment I have always looked at film as art, from my own crude attempts at Super 8mm cinematography back in the days, to my last night's pay-per-view viewing of Crazy Heart, starring Jeff Bridges, for which he received an Oscar for Best Performance.

Accordingly and for something completely different, a first for AllAllan, a movie trailer.  But more then a trailer, here is a beautiful song from which the movie was titled.  Probably the best movie I've seen in a decade, one that includes the best performance by an actor that maybe I've ever seen.  Or maybe its just me, with the theme, mood and characterization of Bad Blake, a confluence of spirit and emotion that resonates a bit too close to home.

In other words, an artful post for another melancholy Sunday.

.....and this ain't no place for the weary kind
this ain't no place to lose your mind
this ain't no place to fall behind
pick up your crazy heart and give it one more try

Tales from our mythic hero

I am become a name;

For always roaming with a hungry heart

Much have I seen and known: cities of men

And manners, climates, councils, governments,

Myself not least, but honored of them all;

And drunk delight of battle with my peers,

Far on the ringing plains of windy Troy.

I am part of all that I have met;

Yet all experience is an arch wherethro'

Gleams that untraveled world, whose margin fades

For ever and for ever when I move.

The "Odyssey" is an epic story that has been a significant piece of literature since it was first composed and will remain so for ages to come. One of the reasons it has been so is because of the hero, Odysseus.

There's a man who's been out sailing
In a decade full of dreams
And he takes her to a schooner
And he treats her like a queen
Bearing beads from California
With their amber stones and green
He has called her from the harbor
He has kissed her with his freedom
He has heard her off to starboard
In the breaking and the breathing
Of the water weeds
While she was busy being free

Odysseus is one of the first Greek mythic heroes renowned for his brain as well as his muscle. Indeed he is a man with an inquiring mind, and he is also a man with outstanding prowess and bravery. We also must not forget that he is a top-notch athlete which only adds more to this seemingly insuperable character. It is no wonder why many scholars refer to Odysseus as a powerful mythic hero.

What a dream I had:
Pressed in organdy;
Clothed in crinoline of smoky Burgundy;
Softer than the rain.
I wandered empty streets
Down past the shop displays.
I heard cathedral bells
Tripping down the alley ways,
As I walked on.

Odysseus often hesitates before acting, because he uses his reason and gift to evaluate things. This patience is one of his most important additional attributes. This has saved him and his men many of times, and it can be easily seen in various instances throughout his travels such as when he disguised himself as a beggar when he finally reached Ithaca, waiting for the right moment to reveal himself.

On a morning from a Bogart movie
In a country where they turn back time
You go strolling through the crowd like Peter Lorre
Contemplating a crime
She comes out of the sun in a silk dress running
Like a watercolour in the rain
Don't bother asking for explanations
She'll just tell you that she came
In the year of the cat 

As great as he was, Odysseus still had some weaknesses that prolonged his voyage back to Ithaca. His most important weakness that he possess is that of his pride. Pride is good to have, but in Odysseus' case he had to much of it.

Wake up Maggie, I think I've got something to say to you
It's late September and I really should be back at school
I know I keep you amused
But I fell I'm being used
Oh Maggie, I couldn't have tried any more
You led me away from home
Just to save you from being alone
You stole my heart and that's what really hurts

This is clearly evident in the episode on the cyclopes' island. When Odysseus and his men are clearly safe away from the island Odysseus braggs about his exploit. Polythemus hears this and hurls giant boulders in the direction of the ship. A couple came very close to sinking the ship. Still that was not enough for Odysseus. Carried away in his pride he unwisely gave away his identity to Polythemus. With that Polythemus called upon his father, Poseidon, to punish the man who had harmed him. That incident hurt Odysseus more than losing a few men, because Poseidon made his travel home ever so longer and arduous.

Now the things that I remember seem so distant and so small
Though it hasn’t really been that long a time
What I was seeing wasn’t what was happening at all
Although for a while, our path did seem to climb
But when you see through love’s illusions, there lies the danger
And your perfect lover just looks like a perfect fool
So you go running off in search of a perfect stranger
While the loneliness seems to spring from your life
Like a fountain from a pool

Yet another weakness of our hero is his sensualness. Odysseus enjoys women. He stayed with Circe for one year before his men reminded him of home. He also stayed with Calypso for seven years. Although we must take into thought that there were some other reasons why he stayed with her for so long, like that she was an immortal and he didn't want to have her against him.

Kathy, I'm lost," I said, though I knew she was sleeping
I'm empty and aching and I don't know why
Counting the cars on the New Jersey Turnpike
They've all gone to look for America
All gone to look for America

Nonetheless, Odysseus survived all that happened to him. His courage, wits, and endurance enabled him to come through each and every difficulty and arrive home safely.

And the colors of the sea blind your eyes with trembling mermaids,

And you touch the distant beaches with tales of brave Ulysses:

How his naked ears were tortured by the sirens sweetly singing,

For the sparkling waves are calling you to kiss their white laced lips.

Greatly Overvalued Stocks in the News

Ilene, at PSW, sent me this list of overvalued stocks in the news from Ockham Research and asked me to run them through my system looking for short sales.  I've run them through my trend models and have posted results, in red italics.  Below that, a few of the charts that look especially Bearish.

Caution: Greatly Overvalued Stocks in the News

At Ockham, we recently released a new stock screening tool on our site that we now use daily around the office to more efficiently wade through our coverage of over 8400 stocks.  One interesting filter we used today was to see stocks that have our Greatly Overvalued rating, and also have been mentioned in the financial media within the last 30 days according to RazorWire.  These stocks represent a subset of our most negative ratings that are also attracting some attention lately either because of earnings releases or some other reason to be mentioned on business television or influential financial blogs.

Ockham's "Overvalued" Stocks:       Allan's Trend Analysis

Occidental Petroleum (OXY): New Buy as of Friday's close;
ArcelorMittal (MT):   Sell Daily, New Sell on Weekly;
Caterpillar (CAT):  New Sell Pending, trigger is close under 67.88
Johnson Controls (JCI):   Still in uptrend, but Sell under 33.09

PACCAR, Inc (PCAR):  Still in uptrend, but Sell under 45.65
Vornado Realty (VNO): Uptrend;
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP):  Daily Sell, Weekly Long;
Eaton Corporation (ETN):  Daily Sell signal; Weekly still Long;
Fidelity National Info Services (FIS): Strong Uptrend;
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF): Daily Short, Weekly new Sell;
Cree, Inc. (CREE): Daily Short, Weekly Sell pending;
Eastman Chemical Company (EMN): New Sell on Daily chart;
BorgWarner, Inc. (BWA): Strong uptrend;
Autoliv, Inc. (ALV):  Daily Short, Weekly Sell pending;
M.D.C. Holdings (MDC):  Uptrend;
Redwood Trust (RWT):  Daily Short, Weekly Long;
Imax Corp (IMAX):  New Sell on Daily;
Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT): Strong uptrend.

Best looking charts for Selling

Trend Model Stocks, follow-ups

NNVC - Elliott Wave update

There is a lot in the chart below, maybe too much, but I have been using these tools since 1994 and they are about 75% accurate, so there is a three out of four chance that the implications for future price movement are on the mark.  The trend models are even more accurate, but are more of a lagging indicator then this EW analysis, which is more prospective.   Between the two tools, there is a high confidence suggestion of much higher prices to come, once the trend model joins in.

NNVC: EW Analysis & Daily Trend Model

This set up is referred to in Advanced GET as a Mechanical Buy Signal.  Its termed mechanical because although it uses subjective underlying themes, they are applied in a purely objective model, i.e. if X and Y, then Z.

(1) Elliott Wave Count - three waves up & one wave down (as a Wave 4);

(2) Buy signal on the False Bar Stochastic;

(3) Decline in the Elliott Oscillator to the zero line;

(4) Wave 4 retracement to a key Fibonacci level;

(5) Prices break out of Regression Trend Channel (Wave 4 break-out).

Add to the above, a Daily Trend Model Buy signal will occur on a close today above $2.36.  This paints a compelling picture that Wave 5 has begun, with an initial target of $3.25-$4.00.  

I should preface all of this with a, "probably" since all of the above is based on probability theory, the wave counts, the mechanical signals, the trend models, even the Wave 5 targets.  There are no guarantees, no perfection, no done deals.  Just a mountain of probabilities that NNVC is headed up to the $3-4 range in the coming weeks.  To start the run off, we need a close today above $2.36, that in my opinion would be the icing on the cake...........carrot cake with cream cheese frosting. 

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GLD

I wrote to my subscribers last night about GLD; that it is on a fresh Buy on the Daily chart and is in Buy Pending mode on the Weekly chart.  That longer-term Weekly Buy should be confirmed by today's close.  Below is a GLD 240 minute chart:

The most recent Buy on the chart came on April 20th at 111.93.  With GLD up above 115 today, that is about a 3% rise from inception of the trade.  Taking a look at the option tables, a 3% rise in near-term at the money calls translates into a pro-forma rise in the option of well over 100%, i.e. from about $2.07 to between $4.00 and $4.85:

That's a healthy return for a ten-day period.  But it has to be, as the trade has to make up for the previous whipsaw, where I suspect a loss on the option would be about 30%.  Adding it all up,  assuming that for any given two trades there is a 30% loss followed by a 100% gain, at the end of the year you are addicted to the trend models.  

A lot of assumptions here, including pro-forma and/or hypothetical analysis.  But the underlying trading paradigm is not assumed, it is real and based on this rear-view mirror option analysis, is a viable strategy going forward.  Daily and Weekly models offer similar opportunity and I'll eventually get around to posting this same kind of analysis for those time frames.


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Retracement levels

The BIDU edge

BIDU is my poster child for weekly trading, using only Friday's close to determine if BIDU should be held LONG or SHORT as of Monday's Open.  You can see on the Weekly chart below, there is not a whole lot of trading going on here:

BIDU Weekly Trend Model

On a more Intermediate time frame, the Daily Trend Model, BIDU's most recent signal was a BUY generated at the close of trading on April 23 @ 645.76:

BIDU Daily Trend Model

BIDU is up 15% today @ 710.95

Baidu Shares Soar as Profits Rise 165%

BEIJING (TheStreet) -- Baidu(BIDI) shares are soaring in premarket trading Thursday after the operator of China's No. 1 Internet search engine said first-quarter profit rose 165%.

The trend models didn't know this news was coming, they only knew that BIDU was in a long term uptrend (weekly model) and a fresh intermediate term uptrend (daily model).

In the vernacular of trend following, that is called an edge.


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NNVC - Hourly

NNVC Hourly Trend Model

As volume has picked up in 2010, the above hourly trend model has caught my attention, especially for those seeking additional entry points for NNVC.  

The recovery late Wednesday from 1.70 to 2.00 was enough to trigger a fresh Buy in the hourly model.  Note also the early warning Sell generated April 15th at about 2.40.  NNVC then dropped to about 2.16, triggered a Buy that was quickly reversed to a Sell at 2.06, which then saw NNVC drop to 1.70  before the reversal Long on yesterday's close.

I'm not suggesting actively trading NNVC based on intraday trends, but, the trades and opportunities are there, for anyone so inclined.