Friday, October 22, 2010

Gold Mania

This gold mania reminds me of the tech mania of the late 1990's that culminated in the great tech bubble top of 2000.  As you may recall, that ended very badly.  This time around, there are our trend models, so let's have a look at GLD:

GLD Hourly Trend Model

GLD Daily Trend Model

It's the Daily Model that is the key here.  Sitting right on the trend line, either it finds support or knives through for a SELL Signal. The hourly model above is suggesting the latter.

GLL is the double short ETF for gold and as shown on the chart below, has just reversed LONG:

GLL Daily Trend Model

Bottom line, there are reasons to be cautious on gold right now, but unless and until the Daily GLD Model reverses SHORT, the intermediate uptrend is still intact.


rob g said...

imo i dont think this is a gold mania yet or bubble. back in the day with the internet craze those stocks would run up and split and keep splitting. none of the gold or silver stocks i own have ever split. do you know any that have split? the majority of people that i talk to that invest dont even own any preciuos metal stocks in there portfolio. i think this is just the beginning of a multi year bull run in commodities.

Anonymous said...

Geeze L'weeze....

the gold bull market and the 1990's tech bubble couldnt be more different.

There may be some 'start up ' prospect miners without alot of cash, that might not make it if they dont drill good holes early on,and dont have experienced management, etc..... but many mining companies, still considered 'juniors' have been in business for many years...they are not internet ideas born yesterday and just aquiring a nasdaq listing.

very different

Anonymous said...

$SPX is going to retreat minimally to the 1060 level, a 10% down move from the current level ...