Monday, October 13, 2008

Mea Culpa?

I missed the largest rally in stock market history. With all your eyes looking to me for guidance in these turbulent times, I remained alarmist and resistant to admitting the market was in bullish mode, due to my stubborn refusal to see what was unfolding before us all.

Raise your hands if you believe that crap.

Yes, it is all true, but there is a method behind my madness. HEALTHY MARKETS DO NOT RISE 11.5% IN A SINGLE SESSION. I have been alerted to an Elliott Wave count that has extremely bearish potential for the next two weeks. Monday's rally and even some carry over rally into Tuesday is consistent with a fall-off-the-cliff decline before Halloween.

You may lower your hands now.

Probabilities favor at a minimum a retest of last week's lows. Possibilities include the incredulous, that the "Crash" first mentioned here on September 10, 2008, has yet to hit. Instead, it is just ahead and if the past few weeks are any indication, it will take no prisoners.

Right or wrong, that's tonight's road map. Be careful out there.



Anonymous said...

Alan, you did mention that on the way down to C, there'll be rallies but every rally will be countered by a low of lows!! But yes, if you missed the Mondays rally, your day trading skills are getting rusty...imo.

I think there'll be another rally on Tuesday as the Fed has nationalized 9 Banks but I think it is going to be short lived as fund managers start selling equities to raise cash...process of deleveraging..JMO.

Anonymous said...


You know how to make someone feel good about the future...

I am in more cash then ever...will buy some PUTS as the market rallys...these dramatic up and down swings are going to break the market.

Anonymous said...

Thank you Allan for building that wall of worry. I think you will be buying in 20%+ from here.


Anar said...

your da man alan