Saturday, August 30, 2008
Thursday, August 28, 2008
A Biblical Seven Years
August 27, 2008
OP-ED COLUMNIST
NY Times
A Biblical Seven Years
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Beijing
After attending the spectacular closing ceremony at the Beijing Olympics and feeling the vibrations from hundreds of Chinese drummers pulsating in my own chest, I was tempted to conclude two things: “Holy mackerel, the energy coming out of this country is unrivaled.” And, two: “We are so cooked. Start teaching your kids Mandarin.”
However, I’ve learned over the years not to over-interpret any two-week event. Olympics don’t change history. They are mere snapshots — a country posing in its Sunday bests for all the world too see. But, as snapshots go, the one China presented through the Olympics was enormously powerful — and it’s one that Americans need to reflect upon this election season.
China did not build the magnificent $43 billion infrastructure for these games, or put on the unparalleled opening and closing ceremonies, simply by the dumb luck of discovering oil. No, it was the culmination of seven years of national investment, planning, concentrated state power, national mobilization and hard work.
Seven years ... Seven years ... Oh, that’s right. China was awarded these Olympic Games on July 13, 2001 — just two months before 9/11.
As I sat in my seat at the Bird’s Nest, watching thousands of Chinese dancers, drummers, singers and acrobats on stilts perform their magic at the closing ceremony, I couldn’t help but reflect on how China and America have spent the last seven years: China has been preparing for the Olympics; we’ve been preparing for Al Qaeda. They’ve been building better stadiums, subways, airports, roads and parks. And we’ve been building better metal detectors, armored Humvees and pilotless drones.
The difference is starting to show. Just compare arriving at La Guardia’s dumpy terminal in New York City and driving through the crumbling infrastructure into Manhattan with arriving at Shanghai’s sleek airport and taking the 220-mile-per-hour magnetic levitation train, which uses electromagnetic propulsion instead of steel wheels and tracks, to get to town in a blink.
Then ask yourself: Who is living in the third world country?
Yes, if you drive an hour out of Beijing, you meet the vast dirt-poor third world of China. But here’s what’s new: The rich parts of China, the modern parts of Beijing or Shanghai or Dalian, are now more state of the art than rich America. The buildings are architecturally more interesting, the wireless networks more sophisticated, the roads and trains more efficient and nicer. And, I repeat, they did not get all this by discovering oil. They got it by digging inside themselves.
I realize the differences: We were attacked on 9/11; they were not. We have real enemies; theirs are small and mostly domestic. We had to respond to 9/11 at least by eliminating the Al Qaeda base in Afghanistan and investing in tighter homeland security. They could avoid foreign entanglements. Trying to build democracy in Iraq, though, which I supported, was a war of choice and is unlikely to ever produce anything equal to its huge price tag.
But the first rule of holes is that when you’re in one, stop digging. When you see how much modern infrastructure has been built in China since 2001, under the banner of the Olympics, and you see how much infrastructure has been postponed in America since 2001, under the banner of the war on terrorism, it’s clear that the next seven years need to be devoted to nation-building in America.
We need to finish our business in Iraq and Afghanistan as quickly as possible, which is why it is a travesty that the Iraqi Parliament has gone on vacation while 130,000 U.S. troops are standing guard. We can no longer afford to postpone our nation-building while Iraqis squabble over whether to do theirs.
A lot of people are now advising Barack Obama to get dirty with John McCain. Sure, fight fire with fire. That’s necessary, but it is not sufficient.
Obama got this far because many voters projected onto him that he could be the leader of an American renewal. They know we need nation-building at home now — not in Iraq, not in Afghanistan, not in Georgia, but in America. Obama cannot lose that theme.
He cannot let Republicans make this election about who is tough enough to stand up to Russia or bin Laden. It has to be about who is strong enough, focused enough, creative enough and unifying enough to get Americans to rebuild America. The next president can have all the foreign affairs experience in the world, but it will be useless, utterly useless, if we, as a country, are weak.
Obama is more right than he knows when he proclaims that this is “our” moment, this is “our” time. But it is our time to get back to work on the only home we have, our time for nation-building in America. I never want to tell my girls — and I’m sure Obama feels the same about his — that they have to go to China to see the future.
OP-ED COLUMNIST
NY Times
A Biblical Seven Years
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Beijing
After attending the spectacular closing ceremony at the Beijing Olympics and feeling the vibrations from hundreds of Chinese drummers pulsating in my own chest, I was tempted to conclude two things: “Holy mackerel, the energy coming out of this country is unrivaled.” And, two: “We are so cooked. Start teaching your kids Mandarin.”
However, I’ve learned over the years not to over-interpret any two-week event. Olympics don’t change history. They are mere snapshots — a country posing in its Sunday bests for all the world too see. But, as snapshots go, the one China presented through the Olympics was enormously powerful — and it’s one that Americans need to reflect upon this election season.
China did not build the magnificent $43 billion infrastructure for these games, or put on the unparalleled opening and closing ceremonies, simply by the dumb luck of discovering oil. No, it was the culmination of seven years of national investment, planning, concentrated state power, national mobilization and hard work.
Seven years ... Seven years ... Oh, that’s right. China was awarded these Olympic Games on July 13, 2001 — just two months before 9/11.
As I sat in my seat at the Bird’s Nest, watching thousands of Chinese dancers, drummers, singers and acrobats on stilts perform their magic at the closing ceremony, I couldn’t help but reflect on how China and America have spent the last seven years: China has been preparing for the Olympics; we’ve been preparing for Al Qaeda. They’ve been building better stadiums, subways, airports, roads and parks. And we’ve been building better metal detectors, armored Humvees and pilotless drones.
The difference is starting to show. Just compare arriving at La Guardia’s dumpy terminal in New York City and driving through the crumbling infrastructure into Manhattan with arriving at Shanghai’s sleek airport and taking the 220-mile-per-hour magnetic levitation train, which uses electromagnetic propulsion instead of steel wheels and tracks, to get to town in a blink.
Then ask yourself: Who is living in the third world country?
Yes, if you drive an hour out of Beijing, you meet the vast dirt-poor third world of China. But here’s what’s new: The rich parts of China, the modern parts of Beijing or Shanghai or Dalian, are now more state of the art than rich America. The buildings are architecturally more interesting, the wireless networks more sophisticated, the roads and trains more efficient and nicer. And, I repeat, they did not get all this by discovering oil. They got it by digging inside themselves.
I realize the differences: We were attacked on 9/11; they were not. We have real enemies; theirs are small and mostly domestic. We had to respond to 9/11 at least by eliminating the Al Qaeda base in Afghanistan and investing in tighter homeland security. They could avoid foreign entanglements. Trying to build democracy in Iraq, though, which I supported, was a war of choice and is unlikely to ever produce anything equal to its huge price tag.
But the first rule of holes is that when you’re in one, stop digging. When you see how much modern infrastructure has been built in China since 2001, under the banner of the Olympics, and you see how much infrastructure has been postponed in America since 2001, under the banner of the war on terrorism, it’s clear that the next seven years need to be devoted to nation-building in America.
We need to finish our business in Iraq and Afghanistan as quickly as possible, which is why it is a travesty that the Iraqi Parliament has gone on vacation while 130,000 U.S. troops are standing guard. We can no longer afford to postpone our nation-building while Iraqis squabble over whether to do theirs.
A lot of people are now advising Barack Obama to get dirty with John McCain. Sure, fight fire with fire. That’s necessary, but it is not sufficient.
Obama got this far because many voters projected onto him that he could be the leader of an American renewal. They know we need nation-building at home now — not in Iraq, not in Afghanistan, not in Georgia, but in America. Obama cannot lose that theme.
He cannot let Republicans make this election about who is tough enough to stand up to Russia or bin Laden. It has to be about who is strong enough, focused enough, creative enough and unifying enough to get Americans to rebuild America. The next president can have all the foreign affairs experience in the world, but it will be useless, utterly useless, if we, as a country, are weak.
Obama is more right than he knows when he proclaims that this is “our” moment, this is “our” time. But it is our time to get back to work on the only home we have, our time for nation-building in America. I never want to tell my girls — and I’m sure Obama feels the same about his — that they have to go to China to see the future.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
NNVC & HIV Dollars
From the iHub site, where a resident poster is in Hawaii with Dr. Seymour, CEO of Nanoviricides:
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Dr. Seymour is here in Hawaii, and having a few days between the end of summer classes and the beginning of fall semester I had time to make my way to the part of the state where he is spending the week. Though he is on vacation with his family--you know beach, surfing, biking, eating, umbrella drinks-- he was kind enough to make lunch available for us to meet and small-talk.
One thing he was very excited about and wanted to spend most of the time discussing is NNVC's role in the global community. With HIV/AIDS currently dominating NNVC's news over the recent months, most of that discussion focused on what happens when (!) HIVCide is approved? Considering the current regimen's annual cost to patients is upwards of $35K a year, what might a licensed Big Pharma charge for a more effective cure? Further, the most rampant spread of the virus and disease is in the third world, and mostly Africa, what impact might HIVCide have there? Especially if the licensed drug company decides to continue to charge what it knows first world health care and insurance providers will gladly pay for a more effective and non-toxic drug, upwards of $35K a year. Would NNVC even have any say in the discussion of what a licensed company might charge?
His answers to these questions were actually rather long-winded, and breath taking, whence a 1 hour lunch quickly became 3 hours of rather fascinating discussion, to me, anyway. First, he said he was inclined to allow the licensing company to continue to get those upwards of $35K per year in receipts per patient. *Gasp!* He then elaborated how he might require that pharma to then use those huge funds to provide HIVCide at cost, or even free, to those areas hardest hit by HIV/AIDS. Thus, countries where $35K a year is a lot of money, but not unaffordable, would finance the use of a life (and economy) saving therapy in regions where $35 a year is unaffordable.
Whoa. How is that even fair? What justification can there possibly be for extorting money from critically needed patient care in developed countries to pay for that same patient care in poverty stricken areas? He said he wouldn't use the word "extortion" since it is in the interest of the first world to control the disease in the rest of the world. That was when he started rattling off statistics (Never allow a doctor to start in with statistics. My advice: call the waitress, order another round of drinks, excuse yourself to the restroom, and when you return, change the subject. I didn't do that).
Over 1 million people* (See footnote) in the US are infected with HIV, the success of current treatments mean there is a lower die-off, which is a good thing, but it also has some rather distressing consequences. Some 40K new infections occur each year, so with far fewer people dying of the disease, but still walking around with it, in less than 20 years there will be 2 million walking cases of HIV infection. Consequently, as the number of people infected increases, the likelihood of infection increases (no-brainer); however, the likelihood of mutations and new emergent, resistant strains also increases. This increases the rate of decline in efficacy for any current or new drug that is susceptible to shifts and changes in the virus. Not a good situation for any of us.
That's in America; now the doc started in on Africa and other regions with emerging countries. Worldwide, there are over 40 million people living with HIV/AIDS, and some 75% percent of these people live in sub-Saharan Africa. By 2010, Ethiopia, Nigeria, China, India, and Russia--all totaling 40 percent of the world's population--will add 50 to 75 million infected people to the worldwide pool. If doubling from 1 million to 2 million in less than 20 years will significantly stress our ability to control AIDS in the U.S., what will more than doubling the number of infected people in only 2 years do? Especially, what will it do when the more than doubling takes place in countries representing less than half the world's population? Imagine what that increase in likelihood of mutation will do to long-term drug efficacy.
What is our interest? Our economy (U.S., Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Japan, etc.) is globally linked to those other economies. Our economic health is tied to their economic health and thus tied to their social and physical health. We travel and trade freely, for the moment. It is in our economic, social, cultural and health interest to do what we can to eradicate the disease in those other regions, even if it means paying the cost of that eradication ourselves.
Now, from a purely selfish and materialistic perspective, think in terms of the goodwill generated by a U.S. based corporation flooding those regions with free or nearly free drugs. Think of the positive effect it will have on global opinion. Then think of the positive effect it will have on the corporate images of those companies participating in such an effort. *Gasp!* Breathtaking.
*1 million infected people times $10K per regimen for person, holy crap!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
A
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Dr. Seymour is here in Hawaii, and having a few days between the end of summer classes and the beginning of fall semester I had time to make my way to the part of the state where he is spending the week. Though he is on vacation with his family--you know beach, surfing, biking, eating, umbrella drinks-- he was kind enough to make lunch available for us to meet and small-talk.
One thing he was very excited about and wanted to spend most of the time discussing is NNVC's role in the global community. With HIV/AIDS currently dominating NNVC's news over the recent months, most of that discussion focused on what happens when (!) HIVCide is approved? Considering the current regimen's annual cost to patients is upwards of $35K a year, what might a licensed Big Pharma charge for a more effective cure? Further, the most rampant spread of the virus and disease is in the third world, and mostly Africa, what impact might HIVCide have there? Especially if the licensed drug company decides to continue to charge what it knows first world health care and insurance providers will gladly pay for a more effective and non-toxic drug, upwards of $35K a year. Would NNVC even have any say in the discussion of what a licensed company might charge?
His answers to these questions were actually rather long-winded, and breath taking, whence a 1 hour lunch quickly became 3 hours of rather fascinating discussion, to me, anyway. First, he said he was inclined to allow the licensing company to continue to get those upwards of $35K per year in receipts per patient. *Gasp!* He then elaborated how he might require that pharma to then use those huge funds to provide HIVCide at cost, or even free, to those areas hardest hit by HIV/AIDS. Thus, countries where $35K a year is a lot of money, but not unaffordable, would finance the use of a life (and economy) saving therapy in regions where $35 a year is unaffordable.
Whoa. How is that even fair? What justification can there possibly be for extorting money from critically needed patient care in developed countries to pay for that same patient care in poverty stricken areas? He said he wouldn't use the word "extortion" since it is in the interest of the first world to control the disease in the rest of the world. That was when he started rattling off statistics (Never allow a doctor to start in with statistics. My advice: call the waitress, order another round of drinks, excuse yourself to the restroom, and when you return, change the subject. I didn't do that).
Over 1 million people* (See footnote) in the US are infected with HIV, the success of current treatments mean there is a lower die-off, which is a good thing, but it also has some rather distressing consequences. Some 40K new infections occur each year, so with far fewer people dying of the disease, but still walking around with it, in less than 20 years there will be 2 million walking cases of HIV infection. Consequently, as the number of people infected increases, the likelihood of infection increases (no-brainer); however, the likelihood of mutations and new emergent, resistant strains also increases. This increases the rate of decline in efficacy for any current or new drug that is susceptible to shifts and changes in the virus. Not a good situation for any of us.
That's in America; now the doc started in on Africa and other regions with emerging countries. Worldwide, there are over 40 million people living with HIV/AIDS, and some 75% percent of these people live in sub-Saharan Africa. By 2010, Ethiopia, Nigeria, China, India, and Russia--all totaling 40 percent of the world's population--will add 50 to 75 million infected people to the worldwide pool. If doubling from 1 million to 2 million in less than 20 years will significantly stress our ability to control AIDS in the U.S., what will more than doubling the number of infected people in only 2 years do? Especially, what will it do when the more than doubling takes place in countries representing less than half the world's population? Imagine what that increase in likelihood of mutation will do to long-term drug efficacy.
What is our interest? Our economy (U.S., Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Japan, etc.) is globally linked to those other economies. Our economic health is tied to their economic health and thus tied to their social and physical health. We travel and trade freely, for the moment. It is in our economic, social, cultural and health interest to do what we can to eradicate the disease in those other regions, even if it means paying the cost of that eradication ourselves.
Now, from a purely selfish and materialistic perspective, think in terms of the goodwill generated by a U.S. based corporation flooding those regions with free or nearly free drugs. Think of the positive effect it will have on global opinion. Then think of the positive effect it will have on the corporate images of those companies participating in such an effort. *Gasp!* Breathtaking.
*1 million infected people times $10K per regimen for person, holy crap!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
A
Politics
I don't often venture into the minefield of politics, but last night I caught Jay Leno and one of his guests, John McCain. Leno asks McCain how many houses he owned. McCain answers with a story about how he had been in prison for five years. I couldn't believe it! Why isn't the press all over this today?
One candidate for the presidency has the experience of a turnip, the other one is an ex-con. I mean the guy can't own a gun, can't sit on a jury and can't even vote, but he's running for President? I can't wait for the Republican spin on this one.
Speaking of which, if you want to day-trade the election in November, here is a site that allows you to place your bets:
From the looks of things, news of McCain's stint in jail has already effected the odds.
A
One candidate for the presidency has the experience of a turnip, the other one is an ex-con. I mean the guy can't own a gun, can't sit on a jury and can't even vote, but he's running for President? I can't wait for the Republican spin on this one.
Speaking of which, if you want to day-trade the election in November, here is a site that allows you to place your bets:
From the looks of things, news of McCain's stint in jail has already effected the odds.
A
Monday, August 25, 2008
Got Daughters?
Gardasil is Merck's $2B (sales estimate) vaccine against cervical cancer. Anyone who has young daughters (as do I ) has probably heard of it and if you have, have heard only Merck's side of the story. Ilene has uncovered the other side (by Deborah at Wall Street Weather), and it is worth reading if you have daughters, or know anyone who does.
Merck’s Gardasil: A Risky and Unneeded Vaccine
A
PS: While there, check out her other stories on VIX, Choppy Markets and FNM & FRE.
Merck’s Gardasil: A Risky and Unneeded Vaccine
A
PS: While there, check out her other stories on VIX, Choppy Markets and FNM & FRE.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
More on Solar
A friend of mine emailed me this weekend and suggested that I take a step back from my charts, remove my trend lines and allow my intuitive powers out, in an attempt to see the charts as what they are, not what I am interpreting them to be. So for much of Sunday I have been occupied with looking at charts without any preconceived bias. The result: The solars look great.
Above is a CSIQ-Daily of price only, you decide.
Below the weekly, does this help?
Finally, let's throw my trend lines back on:
Next, a simple line chart of another Solar, TSL, with only Triangle signals:
And once again, with my trend lines:
Solars are great trading stocks, they seem to cycle very nicely and provide excellent Intermediate percentage returns. For example, either of these two Solars could return 50% on a modest move back to the top of their respective channels.
I still don't know if this sector belongs in the Energy complex, the Technology complex, or are their own complex. Doesn't matter. My trend lines merely represent what my eyes are seeing, without the trend lines. Both these stocks look to be oversold and beginning a rally to overbought.......and that is the Trade.
A
Above is a CSIQ-Daily of price only, you decide.
Below the weekly, does this help?
Finally, let's throw my trend lines back on:
Next, a simple line chart of another Solar, TSL, with only Triangle signals:
And once again, with my trend lines:
Solars are great trading stocks, they seem to cycle very nicely and provide excellent Intermediate percentage returns. For example, either of these two Solars could return 50% on a modest move back to the top of their respective channels.
I still don't know if this sector belongs in the Energy complex, the Technology complex, or are their own complex. Doesn't matter. My trend lines merely represent what my eyes are seeing, without the trend lines. Both these stocks look to be oversold and beginning a rally to overbought.......and that is the Trade.
A
Friday, August 22, 2008
DBA
The Powershares Agricultural Fund ("DBA") is an ETF that allows participation in the grains futures markets. It as been in a downtrend since the first quarter of 2008, following a multi-year bull market in grains. It now appears that the correction is over and a resumption of the uptrend may be upon us. If so, there are mega profits to be made in DBA and it's call options.
One way to look at DBA is another Triangle-friendly stock. With a recent BUY Triangle and the MACD oversold and about to turn up, this could be the presage to an extended rally.
A
Monday, August 18, 2008
University of Arizona
Apologies to all for my absence these past few days. Judging from the market, little in the way of opportunity was lost.
By way of explanation, this past weekend was spent getting my youngest daughter ready for and then dropping her off to begin her path as a college freshman at The University of Arizona.
A mixed blessing of pride and sadness, an emotional reverence for the days past and her journey just beginning into adulthood and maturity.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
It may as well have been me, walking the grounds of the University of Michigan so many years ago.
Excited, intimidated, full of hope, full of fear, all mixed together beneath the desert blue sky reaching far across an uncharted horizon.
A
Friday, August 15, 2008
Solar
Big news Thursday for Solars.
This would be a good time to look at the Triangles for individual Solar Stocks. Here are some that I either have or will have before trading ends Friday:
JASO
A
This would be a good time to look at the Triangles for individual Solar Stocks. Here are some that I either have or will have before trading ends Friday:
YGE
JASO
SPWR
SOL
SOL
A
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
MDII
MDII was brought to my attention by a long-time reader of this Blog. In his own words,
What I see above is that Wednesday's high volume breakout stopped right at one year long resistance at about 55 cents. Any follow-through in the days ahead, i.e. a close above resistance, would suggest MDII is going to between the 200 week moving average at about 80 cents, and secondary resistance at about $1.25.
Here's the deal: I do not have time to do my usual due diligence on the fundamental side. (I am in the midst of moving my daughter to Tucson to start her Freshman year at the University of Arizona). So my decision is whether to hang onto this idea until later next week when I can take a long look at this company, or, publish the idea now and leave it up to my readers to check this stock out. Because MDII could be at $1.00 in a week, I decided to go with it now, along with the caveat that THIS IS A SPECULATIVE IDEA, ONE THAT I HAVE NOT FULLY VETTED.
Don't you absolutely HATE that word, "Vetted"? The only Vette I know of is a two-seater Chevrolet sports car made by General Motors, one that makes the whole idea of being "Vetted" an erotically pleasing experience. But I digress.
You are all on your own on this one.
A
"I have followed this one for years. It makes powerful upside moves of 3-4 months, followed by a 17-19 month retrace/bear phase.I pulled up the chart and it is a doozy:
"We just ended one of those retrace periods and are starting a move that should take us to 2-3."
What I see above is that Wednesday's high volume breakout stopped right at one year long resistance at about 55 cents. Any follow-through in the days ahead, i.e. a close above resistance, would suggest MDII is going to between the 200 week moving average at about 80 cents, and secondary resistance at about $1.25.
Here's the deal: I do not have time to do my usual due diligence on the fundamental side. (I am in the midst of moving my daughter to Tucson to start her Freshman year at the University of Arizona). So my decision is whether to hang onto this idea until later next week when I can take a long look at this company, or, publish the idea now and leave it up to my readers to check this stock out. Because MDII could be at $1.00 in a week, I decided to go with it now, along with the caveat that THIS IS A SPECULATIVE IDEA, ONE THAT I HAVE NOT FULLY VETTED.
Don't you absolutely HATE that word, "Vetted"? The only Vette I know of is a two-seater Chevrolet sports car made by General Motors, one that makes the whole idea of being "Vetted" an erotically pleasing experience. But I digress.
You are all on your own on this one.
A
Cramer & Markets
On July 30, 2008, Jim Cramer called the market bottom:
So, what else is new? How about a reversal in Gold, Oil and the US Dollar?
“My bottom call isn’t gutsy,” Cramer said. “I think it’s just a smart call that all the evidence points toward.”The next morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened at 11,578. As of noon today, the DJIA fell like a hot knife through sleaze, dropping unceremoniously down through 11,500, hitting a low so far today of 11,453 putting all who bought Cramer's bottom signal under water.
“Bye, bye, bear market,” he said. “Say hello to the bull, and don’t let the door hit you on the way out.”
So, what else is new? How about a reversal in Gold, Oil and the US Dollar?
GOLD
OIL
US Dollar
All of these charts are self-explanatory, Oil, Gold and the Dollar are all right up against longer term support or resistance and are primed for reversals of their respective short term trends. This presents some excellent risk:reward trades. If this trio breaks through and contines their shorter-term trends, you get stopped out and reverse your positions.
But the trade here is that they all are about to reverse, Gold and Oil from Down to Up and the Dollar from Up to Down. I cannot see the US Equity Markets going anywhere but lower with these three markets reversing at or around current levels.
A
OIL
US Dollar
All of these charts are self-explanatory, Oil, Gold and the Dollar are all right up against longer term support or resistance and are primed for reversals of their respective short term trends. This presents some excellent risk:reward trades. If this trio breaks through and contines their shorter-term trends, you get stopped out and reverse your positions.
But the trade here is that they all are about to reverse, Gold and Oil from Down to Up and the Dollar from Up to Down. I cannot see the US Equity Markets going anywhere but lower with these three markets reversing at or around current levels.
A
Monday, August 11, 2008
NNVC - Functional Cure for AIDS?
NanoViricides, Inc. Reports that HIVCide-I Was Significantly Superior to the Current Anti-HIV Three Drug Cocktail Standard
Monday August 11, 7:00 am ET
The Novel Mechanism of Action of HIVCide-I Defines a New Class of Anti-HIV Drugs
WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB), (the “Company”) said that additional biological tests and data analysis have shown that animals treated with its lead anti-HIV drug candidate, HIVCide™-I, demonstrated a substantially greater reduction in viral load -- number of infectious virus particles per milliliter of blood -- when compared to the animals given the anti-HIV “combo cocktail” in a preliminary animal study. An important objective of anti-HIV treatment is to minimize the viral load.
These new data expand on the findings previously reported and are consistent with earlier results. The Company has previously reported that HIVCide-I was substantially superior to the combo therapy in improvement of survival time, as well as in reducing the body weight loss, in this preliminary animal study.
“We now know that HIVCide-I was clearly superior to the triple drug combo cocktail in all parameters we observed,” said Anil R. Diwan, PhD, President of the Company, adding, “The novel mechanism of action of HIVCide-I defines a new class of anti-HIV drugs. This enables that it can be combined with the existing cocktail. In such a combination, a much greater level of effectiveness could be achieved compared to what is possible today.”
”If our preliminary results can be duplicated in humans, it is quite possible that HIVCide-I, either alone or in combination with the current combo cocktail, may provide a ‘functional cure’ for HIV/AIDS,” said Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, CEO of the Company.
Anthony S. Fauci, MD, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), NIH, recently described “functional cure” as a state short of true HIV cure that allows a patient to live a life practically free of HIV following prolonged treatment, although the infection may still be present in a latent fashion. True cure (complete freedom from HIV) may be much more difficult to achieve than functional cure because the virus hides in immune cells that make up “latent reservoirs” (http://www.cnn.com/2008/HEALTH/conditions/08/05/ fauci.hiv.column/index.html).
The Company is now in discussions with renowned HIV scientists as to the nature of the additional experiments needed to develop the nanoviricide drug candidate for FDA approval.
These Bio-Safety Level 3 studies employing the well known SCID-hu Thy/Liv HIV mouse model were supervised by Dr. Krishna Menon, PhD, VMD, MRCS, a world-renowned authority in preclinical and toxicological studies of innovative therapeutics.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Triangle-Trading Solars
As much as I like Solars for fundamental story stocks, they shine (sorry) as trading stocks, especially under the auspices of Triangle Signals. Here are three excellent Solar trading stocks:
Maybe my favorite Solar for trading, YGE is up over 200% the past year with the Triangle Signals, while a small net loss via Buy & Hold.
Note again, one year of trading weekly signals, a 5.12% loss B&H versus a 218% win trading Long and Short with the Triangles.
YGE
Maybe my favorite Solar for trading, YGE is up over 200% the past year with the Triangle Signals, while a small net loss via Buy & Hold.STP
Note again, one year of trading weekly signals, a 5.12% loss B&H versus a 218% win trading Long and Short with the Triangles.SOLF
In a rough market this past year, a respectable 23.75% via Buy & Holding Solarfun, but an even more respectable +343.56% trading SOLF via the Triangle Signals.
That's it for my tutorial this weekend on Trading the Triangles from Market Club. There are numerous other permeations to this technique, such as using the Weekly Signals as a filter and then taking the Daily Signals in the direction of the Weekly Signal. What I have presented is the most basic, yet the most pragmatic use of the service for everyday trading.
Human nature being what it is, whacked, whether this kind of approach to trading appeals to any one individual will vary with the individual.
For me, I use the Weekly signals as a sort of traffic light, to keep on the right side of a trend. More importantly, I utilize the scan feature described in the prior blog to generate trading ideas, both long and short. There probably is nothing absolutely unique about the Triangles, or MC for that matter, that cannot be duplicated without the service. But for me, the data, charts and signals are so efficient and user friendly, it creates a sort of, lazy path to winning trades. Some traders can get by on their own, some need the extra ease that a service like MC and its Triangles provide.
In the marketplace and world of trading, every effective tool or aid creates an edge; and it's the edge that you have over others with whom you are competing that makes or breaks the trader.
A
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That's it for my tutorial this weekend on Trading the Triangles from Market Club. There are numerous other permeations to this technique, such as using the Weekly Signals as a filter and then taking the Daily Signals in the direction of the Weekly Signal. What I have presented is the most basic, yet the most pragmatic use of the service for everyday trading.
Human nature being what it is, whacked, whether this kind of approach to trading appeals to any one individual will vary with the individual.
For me, I use the Weekly signals as a sort of traffic light, to keep on the right side of a trend. More importantly, I utilize the scan feature described in the prior blog to generate trading ideas, both long and short. There probably is nothing absolutely unique about the Triangles, or MC for that matter, that cannot be duplicated without the service. But for me, the data, charts and signals are so efficient and user friendly, it creates a sort of, lazy path to winning trades. Some traders can get by on their own, some need the extra ease that a service like MC and its Triangles provide.
In the marketplace and world of trading, every effective tool or aid creates an edge; and it's the edge that you have over others with whom you are competing that makes or breaks the trader.
A
Triangles - Part II
"The Triangles seem to work better on some stocks rather then others and I like using the Weekly chart signals which tend to trade less frequently"
Can you please elaborate and classify on which type of stocks it works better and doesn't?
The premise underlying the Triangle trading signals is a price breakout basis the Daily, or Weekly, or Monthly, or Quarterly time period. Some stocks and/or indexes are more reliable trading vehicles based upon that premise, then others. For example, Apple works very well following weekly breakouts, much better then say a FSLR, or say the US Dollar Index. As we have seen, NNVC works very well on the Daily prices, but maybe it wouldn't be as profitable on the Weekly prices. It's a matter of trial and error with whatever stock or index that is being tested.
Here are a couple of indexes-etf's, one on the Nasdaq (QLD) and one on the DOW (DDM) for comparison:
QLD
If you held the QLD Long since April, 2007, you would be down about 10%. But if you traded the Weekly QLD signals, you would be up 61.84%. QLD also trades options, which with 66% winning trades might be a leveraged alternative. In my testing, the QLD performed much better then the QQQQ, so I adopted the QLD for when I want to trade the Nasdaq.
DDM
These are the results from trading the DDM, a leveraged DOW 30 ETF. I have not looked at this one before writing this blog, so have only tested it year-to-date. Note that the DDM has lost about 20 points, or about 25% year-to-date. But trading the DDM with Triangle signals has netted +12 DDM points, or +14.35%. Again, for some reason these leveraged ETF's do better with Triangle signals, i.e. 3-wk breakout signals, then the underlying index.
All of this data is gleaned from trial and error testing of the Triangle signals, which is easy to do, but does take some time. What I have found is that this trading system works better with some stocks, indexes, ETF's then others. I never know ahead of time which ones it works better with, only with testing and observation does that information come to light. Overall, the system works well across the board, but it does seem to stand out with lower priced stocks and with ETF's.
Is there a Market Club message board? Can't seem to find one.
Without having to take weeks of data, I'm wondering what % of new "Recent Trade Triangles", (with + score, decent volume), actually turn sour right away. My thinking is that as soon as a new one pops up, I buy it and then sell at a predetermined %, say 5. What do you think?
I'm unaware of a Market Club message board, which actually is a good thing because it makes you dive into the program and figure stuff out for yourself, which is also a good thing.
As for a quick start idea, let me suggest the Market Club Scans. My favorite scan, one in which several of the trade ideas that I have published here have originated from, is as follows:
(1) 4-week Highs;
(2) Stocks priced under $20;
(3) Average daily volume above 500,000;
(4) US Stock Excahnges only.
From this scan, you will get a list of stocks, usually numbering to between 20-60 stocks. First, eliminate any stocks with large gaps, that cuts the list in half. Now with a quite managable 15-30 stocks, flip through each stock chart, I like candlesticks as opposed to bar or line charts because candles add information, and look for solid uptrends that are breaking out of longer term bases. This should leave you with anywhere from 1-5 stellar charts. You can stop right there and buy them all, or take a look at fundamentals, i.e. Confirmatory Analysis
and try to whittle the list down again to the best one or two stocks.
Bottom Line: I like Market Club and use it everyday, but it is not in and of itself any Holy Grail. You have to put some effort into understanding Technical Analysis, which MC really makes rather easy. But it is a tool, as is your brain and your imagination. The scanning exercise described above is the closest thing I can think of to putting my expertise in your hands every day, without me being there. Your first big winner that comes from your own effort, instead of waiting for a blog from some stranger on the Internet, will be quite an accomplishment. It will be a giant step on your way to self-sufficiency.
Just don't forget your old coach and mentor, AllAllan..........drop me a line just to let me know you made it.
A
Saturday, August 09, 2008
Triangle Trading System
I often refer to "Triangle Buys/Sells" and provide charts with automated trading signals in support of various trades discussed. This refers to a mechanical trading system embedded in the Market Club trading charts, an advertiser by choice (my choice) on this site.
The triangles represent Daily or Weekly breakouts in the underlying security, including stocks, indexes, etf's, futures, on virtually any tradable that can be charted and for which data is available. If you're looking for a simple, automated, objective trading system, one that does all the thinking and is based on solid trend following criteria, the Triangles are worth consideration.
Note: My advertising deal with Market Club is based on traffic to and business generated from the ads on my site, but rest assured I have been using Market Club charts and Triangles for years now, far longer then they have been advertising on my site.
Here is an example of the past four months of Triangle Signals on NNVC (all signals are generated intraday and emailed to MC subscribers):
To illustrate the worth of these signals in a short-term trading regimen, here is a table that represents all of the above trades:
In summary, a Buy & Hold strategy on NNVC for the past four months would have resulted in a gain of $0.74, or 140%. Trading these signals for the same period would have resulted in a gain of $1.32, or 250%. But the big advantage here, is compounding. There are 15 trades and the average gain per trade is 10.91%. That's about 11% per week, trading about once per week.
The Triangles seem to work better on some stocks rather then others and I like using the Weekly chart signals which tend to trade less frequently. But I wanted to provide here an example of what can be done with simple, objective signals, for those so inclined.
A
The triangles represent Daily or Weekly breakouts in the underlying security, including stocks, indexes, etf's, futures, on virtually any tradable that can be charted and for which data is available. If you're looking for a simple, automated, objective trading system, one that does all the thinking and is based on solid trend following criteria, the Triangles are worth consideration.
Note: My advertising deal with Market Club is based on traffic to and business generated from the ads on my site, but rest assured I have been using Market Club charts and Triangles for years now, far longer then they have been advertising on my site.
Here is an example of the past four months of Triangle Signals on NNVC (all signals are generated intraday and emailed to MC subscribers):
To illustrate the worth of these signals in a short-term trading regimen, here is a table that represents all of the above trades:
In summary, a Buy & Hold strategy on NNVC for the past four months would have resulted in a gain of $0.74, or 140%. Trading these signals for the same period would have resulted in a gain of $1.32, or 250%. But the big advantage here, is compounding. There are 15 trades and the average gain per trade is 10.91%. That's about 11% per week, trading about once per week.The Triangles seem to work better on some stocks rather then others and I like using the Weekly chart signals which tend to trade less frequently. But I wanted to provide here an example of what can be done with simple, objective signals, for those so inclined.
A
Friday, August 08, 2008
Updates - SCA & NNVC
Earlier this week I had a 200% gain in SCA and implemented a trailing stop, which got hit this morning, preserving a 163% gain on the trade. The chart remains bullish, but allows for a drop to Fibonacci support between 1.90 and 2.25.
NNVC is intriguingly up today on nothing special volume, a reversal of a pattern of drifting lower on low volume. Press releases usually come at the beginning of the week and there is anticipation of news on either HIV studies and/or collaborations with a big Pharmaceutical company.
Here is a Daily chart of NNVC showing a break of the descending channel and a Buy signal basis the MACD:
Below is an Hourly chart of NNVC, Year-to-Date, showing a bounce off of support and targeting 1.80 for the move:
A
NNVC is intriguingly up today on nothing special volume, a reversal of a pattern of drifting lower on low volume. Press releases usually come at the beginning of the week and there is anticipation of news on either HIV studies and/or collaborations with a big Pharmaceutical company.
Here is a Daily chart of NNVC showing a break of the descending channel and a Buy signal basis the MACD:
Below is an Hourly chart of NNVC, Year-to-Date, showing a bounce off of support and targeting 1.80 for the move:
A
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
SCA - Update
From my mailbag:
"Lot of action in SCA in after hours yesterday and today's pre-market with some news yesterday. Can you share your thoughts and update on this from you."
SCA is in the same business as ABK. This morning, ABK reported earnings:
Looking again at the Weekly SCA chart, it would seem that the closest likely resistance is the 50 wk SMA which is at 5.42.
What happens at 5.42? Hope to find out soon.
Along with SCA and ABK, I also own MBI. All are based on the same analysis from my original SCA Blog.
Both MBI and SCA are scheduled to report earnings in the next few days:
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Ambac Financial Group and MBIA Inc. are riding a wave of optimism that they finally may be moving past their financial difficulties, with their stocks rallying in recent days.
A
"Lot of action in SCA in after hours yesterday and today's pre-market with some news yesterday. Can you share your thoughts and update on this from you."
SCA is in the same business as ABK. This morning, ABK reported earnings:
Ambac Financial 2Q earnings more than quadrupleCan it be as simple as a sympathy pop? Beats me. But, with SCA trading premarket at $3.00 and my adjusted basis in SCA at $1.14, I am a happy camper.
Ambac Financial Group 2nd-qtr earnings more than quadruple on accounting-related gains
NEW YORK (AP) -- Ambac Financial Group Inc. on Wednesday reported an operating loss during the second quarter because of expected losses on insurance contracts, but at the same time posted a net profit because of how it must account for special non-cash gains from the same complex portfolio.
Looking again at the Weekly SCA chart, it would seem that the closest likely resistance is the 50 wk SMA which is at 5.42.What happens at 5.42? Hope to find out soon.
Along with SCA and ABK, I also own MBI. All are based on the same analysis from my original SCA Blog.
Both MBI and SCA are scheduled to report earnings in the next few days:
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Ambac Financial Group and MBIA Inc. are riding a wave of optimism that they finally may be moving past their financial difficulties, with their stocks rallying in recent days.
So, three pigs in a poke seems to be one of the better trades of the year for the Blog. What does that tell us about trading? The same thing it tells us about baseball. That if you put the ball into play, anything can happen. [Baseball metaphor, see Archives]
A
Monday, August 04, 2008
NNVC & CDC
NanoViricides, Inc. Signs Rabies Agreement with CDC for Expanded Research
Study to Evaluate Usage Strategy for further Development towards Drug Approval
WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB), (the “Company”) said that it has signed a Materials Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (MCRADA) with the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia for rabies treatment study. The study, to be performed in collaboration with the CDC Rabies Program, is scheduled to begin soon.
“This study will expand on two successful animal studies of RabiCide™-I performed previously by the government of Vietnam,” said Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, CEO of the Company, adding that “In those prior studies we achieved a 25% to 30% survival rate in animals that had already developed rabies. We believe this strong survival rate is a historical first achievement for any post-infection rabies treatment.”
“Collaborating with CDC in designing and conducting these studies is an important step forward,” said Anil R. Diwan, PhD, President of the Company, adding, “If the current studies are successful, we anticipate that this will be instrumental in helping our anti-rabies nanoviricide towards drug approval and widespread use across the world.”
The Company has previously reported that Yale Research Professor Thomas Lentz, a leading expert in antiviral therapeutics based on virus-cell binding, has joined the Scientific Advisory Board. Prof. Lentz studied the binding of rabies virus to various cell receptors and has performed pioneering research in this field. The Company believes that it has put together a strong team to tackle rabies.
Study to Evaluate Usage Strategy for further Development towards Drug Approval
WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB), (the “Company”) said that it has signed a Materials Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (MCRADA) with the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia for rabies treatment study. The study, to be performed in collaboration with the CDC Rabies Program, is scheduled to begin soon.
“This study will expand on two successful animal studies of RabiCide™-I performed previously by the government of Vietnam,” said Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, CEO of the Company, adding that “In those prior studies we achieved a 25% to 30% survival rate in animals that had already developed rabies. We believe this strong survival rate is a historical first achievement for any post-infection rabies treatment.”
“Collaborating with CDC in designing and conducting these studies is an important step forward,” said Anil R. Diwan, PhD, President of the Company, adding, “If the current studies are successful, we anticipate that this will be instrumental in helping our anti-rabies nanoviricide towards drug approval and widespread use across the world.”
The Company has previously reported that Yale Research Professor Thomas Lentz, a leading expert in antiviral therapeutics based on virus-cell binding, has joined the Scientific Advisory Board. Prof. Lentz studied the binding of rabies virus to various cell receptors and has performed pioneering research in this field. The Company believes that it has put together a strong team to tackle rabies.
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