Three Weeks

I received this from Ilene today and wanted to post it before the close today (Wednesday).

Hi, Allan!

Here you go: Bird flu projected to be in Alaska in three weeks. Scary, this may energize the bird flu stocks as they've been quiet lately. West cost, by autumn -- that's us!


As for which stocks might catch a bid on any new bird flu scares, Ilene says her top picks are: AVAN, AVII, BCRX and GNBT.


A

donde esta tota las personas !?

donde esta tota las personas !?
you guys on vacation ?


Nothing gets by you guys. Yes, on the beach on Kiawah for the week, but still trading and looking for new ideas, just with limited bandwith. That ocean is something, eh?


A

VRA

Allan, I don't have time to write this up, but VRA was mentioned on briefing.com as a speculative bird flu play -- a cheap one you don't already own. Also, they found a link to a site in mexico, written in spanish, suggesting that a duck there died from bird flu - don't know if it's true, but VRA looks like a good buy here with more bird flu news. - Ilene

I'm in VRA as of 0.65, pure speculation while Ilene and I and anyone else who is a mind to, does some homework on it.

A

GNBT Update

GNBT is on fire, up 50% since my original post recommending it after insider buying on March 3rd. Check out the spate of positive news items that followed that insider purchase, all propelling the stock higher:

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=gnbt&btnG=Search

BTW, the above link is to the new Google Finance Beta Service, which you can read about today at David Gordon's blog.

A

NNVC

LINK TO ENTIRE NEWS RELEASE


NanoViricides, Inc. Achieves Broad Success in Initial FluCide-I(TM) Anti-Influenza Studies
Monday March 20, 7:30 am ET
Company Says That Nanoviricides(TM) is Now a Proven Platform To Attack Bird Flu

WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 20, 2006--NanoViricides, Inc. (Pink Sheets:NNVC - News), today announced it has received additional results from its FluCide-I(TM) efficacy studies performed at a major US research facility. On the basis of these data, Dr. Krishna Menon, the Company's Chief Regulatory Officer, said that the drug candidate tested was worthy of filing an Investigational New Drug Application (INDA) with the FDA. "The results were so positive that with an appropriate dosage protocol, it may be possible to save human lives even in bird flu cases using this test nanoviricide itself," suggested Dr. Menon.

Jim Dines

Always engaging, Jim Dines published again this weekend and his view of the markets, the world and investing psychology are a healthy read. Here is a brief review.

Energy Markets

The shift from an oil-based world energy market to a uranium-based world energy market is in full swing. It also is early in the paradigm switch and fortunes will be made investing in this theme in the next 10 years.

Iraq

Dines suggests a novel tactic, he calls, "The Attacking Retreat". Pull back all troops into the empty desert.

"...and when enough Iraqis get killed, including the hotheads, they might realize that we are trying to be a stabilizing force.....It puts America into a no-lose position, because if al-Qaeda took over Iraq they would be right where our military could get at them from out of the nearby desert. But if Iraq successfully took care of its own house, we could then get out of there and stop squandaring American lives and funds."

Gold and Silver

In still early stages of bull markets.

Stock Market

Mixed signals, but impressed with how the market is holding up in spite of all of the havoc in the world. A bump in the road can happen at any time but doesn't expect it to be very long nor deep.

Bird Flu

Holy shit, here it comes. Party on.

"The High State is to do your very best in life and then enter the High State of Detachment from Result."

A

Two EXPLOSIVE opportunities - update

Since publishing this blog on Tuesday, NNVC and PTSC are up about 40% and 25% respectively.

Not bad for two day returns, but in case there is any doubt, I don't consider those returns explosive.

The best is yet to come.

A

Insider Buying

The table below shows the results of five independent studies on insider buying. It shows the investment returns generated from stocks showing significant insider buying compared to the general market. The only criteria in these studies was that two or more insiders bought company stock and that generally more insiders were buying then selling. I don't know what the hold period was in these studies, but I can safely guess were talking about months or years, instead of my favorite, minutes.

In any case, the edge that insider buying gives to stocks is what is important, and it's clearly set out below:

PTSC - perspective

I ran across this post over on Raging Bull and with PTSC getting hammered this week, I thought it was worth repeating here:

"I think everyone needs to take a chill pill. Your lives would be alot less tressful if you didn't sit on these boards all day. Stocks like these weren't meant to be watched by the minute/hour. If you bought because of the company's potential and are long, then why stare at each trade and panic or rejoice?
One thing to keep in mind is the dividend...or have you (those running around like headless chickens) forgot about that? A company, let alone a BB, rarely issues back-to-back dividends....unless they're desperate or holding pocket aces...I don't think this is a good time to think they're bluffing. Stay long & strong if that's intention, but enough with the whining."


A

Two EXPLOSIVE Opportunities

NNVC & PTSC

Bird Flu Stock Picks

We are on the cusp of a deluge of Bird Flu news, on-line, on TV, radio, radio-talk shows, newspapers, everywhere we look. What will this do for a well constructed basket of bird flu stocks? We will soon find out.

NVAX is hitting 52 week highs today, $6.12, up for $1.49 when we added it to our bird flu basket;

NNVC is trading back above $2.00 today;

CRXL is off it's highs and may be at a good entry price here, around $24.50;

HEB spiked up to $4.00 then fell all the way back under $3.00, it's a Buy here at $3.18.

DSCO is our "back-door" bird flu pick, a buy anywhere under $8.00;

BCRX has a lot more going for it then just bird flu speculation, a Buy under $20;

AVII looks to have ended a normal retrace, Buy under $7.00;

AVAN, a Buy under $2.00;

GNBT seems to also have completed a small correction and has recent insider buying, Buy under $2.50;

SVA is our china connection bird flu play and is way, way off it's highs;

APT makes masks, which we may all be wearing someday;

VICL a little noticed vaccine play.

That's a dozen bird flu ideas, buying at least half of them should provide some good exposure, especially with stories like this coming out:

Ready or Not, Bird Flu Is Coming to America

Good night and good luck,

A

Daytrading Schedule

At the request of one of this Blog's readers, I'm providing a schedule of trades from Monday, March 6, 2006. I picked this day because it was one of my better days trading (I have an ego, too) and because the daily report was available from Interactive Brokers. A few caveats, first, the entry/exits are represented as a single price, but I usually average in and out of trades, so what is printed below is my average cost-price and average proceeds-price for each trade. Also, I don't really understand the commission schedule from the broker, except that most trades cost me $3 in and $3 out, for a total of $6/trade. Since commissions are computed seperately, I am just using a $6/trade cost basis so I can get this thing posted without a damn calculator. Commissions may have been a buck or two higher on some of the trades. Finally, this is not my typical day, it's about 3-4 times better then my typical day in terms of net profits. Nonetheless, it's a living.


Stock Shares Entry Exit Gross Profit

MRVC..... 800.. 4.16... 4.22... $48
HITK.....1000.. 23.95.. 24.79.. $840
PHRM......500.. 17.16.. 16.96.. -$100
GRMN......500.. 74.58.. 74.85.. $135
KOMG.....1000.. 53.24.. 53.33.. $90
PALM.....1000.. 39.8... 39.84.. $40
INTX.....2500.. 9.18... 9.21....$75
UNH.......500...56.55...56.55....$0
CCJ.... 2000....38.7....38.74....$80
ESLR....3000.....16.58..17.21...$1890
OXGN....2000.....4.14....4.02...$-240
ENWY....2000....11.13...11.87...$1480
PONR.....500.....31.95...31.92....-$15
GLW.....1000....27.01...27.01....$0
APFC....2000.....6.12....6.56....$880
GG......1000.....27.4...27.41....$10

Total Gain (excludes commissions)...$5213
Total Gain (includes commissions)..$5117

Strategies

This can be a frustrating sport, trading stocks. PTSC dropped 20% today, after running up over 500% from when it was first discussed here on Valentines day. NNVC came through with a 10% gain, making it's run well over 1500% from it's humble beginnings here last fall.

Many of you have gotten in at much higher prices with returns much less then those described above. Thus, a day like today, where everything (except NNVC) wilts is problematic; protect equity, stand pat, add-on? I can tell you what I am doing, but look at my entries, is it really the same problem? Everyone has their own paradigm here, no one answer fits all. But understanding the basic premises under which we are playing, the strategies that underlie our holdings, may be helpful at times like this.

If you recall, our approach to Bird Flu stocks is to buy a basket of 6-8 small cap stocks that are focusing on research and development of products dealing directly or indirectly with Bird Flu. It's a lottery, we don't know which stock will hold the winning number, just hoping that with a logical, reasoned selection, we either own the winner outright or that the entire basket rises on the coming hype and fear surrounding Bird Flu.

That's also what I am doing with these other stocks, only without the common denominator of being related to Bird Flu. By assembling a basket of penny stocks, low capitalization technology stocks and/or inexpensive special situations, we are hoping that either we get a direct hit of devine providence, or, that the Wolanchuck-Dent Bull Market of Epic Proportions comes to our rescue and carries the entire basket away to the land of wealth and fame.

Going forward, it may be helpful to keep these strategies in mind and not get too discouraged by the price action of any particular stock on any particular day. I guess you can say the same thing about not getting too excited about the run-ups of any one stock on any one day. But it doesn't work like that. When stocks run-up, WE RULE. When they don't, we wax philosophic.

A

EDIG

With PTSC trading at $2.25, +500% from when my friend Roger first mentioned it to me, it may be worth looking at EDIG, which Roger mentioned this morning as an interesting speculation. It's trading at about 15 cents, has been much, much higher in years past($5.00 in October, 2000). They make a hand-held video product and have some association with PTSC management, the details of which I am just now looking into.

Here's a link to their web site.

Consider this an early heads-up.....I will look into the company further and report back.

A

PTSC

I found this post on Raging Bull today (Friday). Those wondering what to do with their PTSC may consider it:

The patent covers EVERY computer chip manufactured that is larger then 100-120MHZ (which is every computer in the world today) from 2000 until 2015. We are talking about billions of dollars. You better go back and do your DD on this one, its going to be huge.


A

GNBT

Generex Biotechnology filed an SEC Form 4 Thursday after the close on behalf of one of its Directors, Brian McGee, who purchased 70,000 shares of GNBT on February 28. He paid $2.21 per share for a total investment of just under $155,000.

Director i-Buys don't carry the same significance as i-Buys by Officers, especially CEO's and CFO's. But they are not to be scoffed at either. So we look further.

GNBT is selling at about $2.30/share and sports a market cap of about $141M. This is a relatively small market cap for a biotechnolgy company with any kind of prospects. So we look further.

GNBT has a number of irons in the fire, but the ones that got my attention were their RapidMist™, that administers medications directly into the mouth as a metered-dose spray, for rapid absorption by the buccal mucosa and GNBT's subsidiary, Antigen Express, which focuses on the stimulation or supression of T cells to "virtually any antigen of known pathogenic potential." (Read: Bird Flu)

Last week Antigen met with the FDA to plan commencement of clinical trials for their vaccine for the avian flu.

With all this looking around, this is what we see: Insider Buying, Small Market Cap, Low Stock Price, Oral Insulin and a Bird Flu Vaccine.

One more thing, a morphine mouth spray:

Morphine & Fentanyl

"Generex has completed proof of concept studies with a buccal spray form of Morphine and Fentanyl for the treatment of breakthrough pain. Phase I clinical trials results reveal that both the Morphine and Fentanyl spray can be safely used in human and addresses the shortcomings of the current delivery routes to treat breakthrough and post operative pain".

You have to own this company.

A

AVAN

Bird flu likely in US flocks soon: Health Secretary

This is now a daily news focus and it's only going to get worse. So we're adding AVAN to our Bird Flu Basket this morning.

Allan,

Let's add another company to your biotech basket, AVAN.

AVAN just got European Regulatory Approval of their Rotarix, a
Rotavirus Vaccine, which is partnered with GlaxoSmithKline, and which
triggered a $40 million payment.

But, more relevantly to bird flu,

AVAN's breaking into the bird flu vaccine arena:

"AVANT Immunotherapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: AVAN) today announced that it
has formed a research team to focus on development of an avian flu
vaccine utilizing in part AVANT's proprietary bacterial vectoring
technologies and VitriLife(R) preservation processes.

"The combination of conserved antigens together with our existing
vaccine technologies could lead to an avian flu vaccine with product
characteristics ideal for mass vaccinations: safe and effective,
single-dose, oral, storable at room temperature,".....

AVANT Immunotherapeutics, Inc. discovers and develops innovative
vaccines and therapeutics that harness the human immune system to
prevent and treat disease. Six of AVANT's products are in clinical
development, including a treatment to reduce complement-mediated
tissue damage associated with cardiac bypass surgery and a novel
vaccine for cholesterol management. AVANT is also developing a
pipeline of bacteria-fighting products for biodefense, travelers'
vaccines, and global health needs based on AVANT'S rapid-protecting,
single-dose, oral and temperature stable vaccine technology.

Ilene

Can You Hear Me Now?

PTSC = $1.09

First recommended here (via my friend Roger Austin) at $0.28 on February 14th. That's a gain of 290% in two weeks. Bragging?

I'm not posting here to brag. (OK, yes I am.) But I have another reason. I'm holding all my PTSC shares, tempting as it is to take some off the table here. Why?

Here's the press release that today's 30% rise in share price can be attributed to:

Fujitsu Purchases License to Intellectual Property Protected by Moore Microprocessor Patent™ Portfolio
Fujitsu joins expanding roster of global giants, including Hewlett-Packard and Casio Computer, to secure licensing rights to ubiquitous MMP Portfolio technologies

Remember, PTSC said it had sent out 150 notices of patent infringement. Casio's license made it 149, now Fujitsu makes it 148. I don't expect PTSC to pop 30% everytime they announce a new license agreement,(OK, yes I do), but if this is just the beginning, I don't want to prematurely exit the stock, or any part of my position.

Rolling the dice on this one.

A