NNVC - time to bang the table?

Sun turnin' 'round with graceful motion
We're setting off with soft explosion
Bound for a star with fiery oceans
It's so very lonely, you're ten thousand light years from home.

Time to bang the table again on NNVC?
 
I found this succinct analysis of NNVC's prospects over on the iHub NNVC forum and wanted to make sure everyone understood where this company is on its path to becoming a major anti-viral pharmaceutical company:

Let's look at possible valuations for NNVC:

Currently completing animal studies and known to be entering pre-IND tox package:
Hiv-Cide for treatment of AIDS-- potential market $3 to $5 billion
Dengue-Cide treatment for Dengue and in particular DHF-- potential market over $1 billion
HSV-1 and HSV-2 treatment for genital Herpes-- potential market well over $1 billion
Once one indication is approved, the other 2 indications will be less than a year from market or revenue.
So, $1 billion divided by 200 million shares o/s worse case scenario leaves $5 earnings for each indication.
That sure looks like a share price over $2 to me.
If you disagree with the above you really, really don't know anything about NNVC, it's market potential, its technology, or the likelihood of approval.

The poster, "Dr. Feelgood," is a long-time shareholder and supporter of the company.  He deals in facts and logical deductions therefrom.  Assigning a modest PE of 20 to the above numbers suggests a share price of $300.  If their stuff works, the company may be worth $300 a share, just based on three out of 6-8 indications from their drug platform.

Does their stuff work?  It's early, but reputable, respected viral researchers are chiming in with a resounding, "Yes!" from their laboratories.

Yet the stock is mired in a painful 50% decline from it's May 3, 2010 high of $2.64.  I am awaiting a Trend Model BUY Signal before banging the table for NNVC shares, much the way I did last October when it dipped under $0.50.   An interim BUY on the 240_minute Trend Model comes in today at $1.38, a Daily BUY at $1.45.

What does the company have to say?

In response to a question to Dr. Seymour about the daily fluctuations in stock price:

"We know from its historical performance that major events have had a significant impact on the price.  If I'm asked, I suggest that people not obsessively watch the price but check it only every now and then. In fact, I subscribe to a service that gives me real-time quotes with the number of shares bought and sold. The sheer manipulation of the stock by the market makers drove me crazy so I followed my own advice and stopped watching. People should be more interested in the fact that we've never had a failure...some minor glitches perhaps, all corrected, but that's just Mother Nature having fun with those who attempt to divine her closely guarded secrets. Progress of the Company is all that one should focus on."

---EUGENE SEYMOUR, MD, MPH
Chief Executive Officer
NANOVIRICIDES, INC

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The whole world is watching

Notwithstanding big picture caution, there is no other way to describe the current Daily and Weekly GS Trend Models then as bullish:

GS Daily Trend Model

GS Weekly Trend Model

The GS Weekly Model reverses LONG on a weekly close above 151.23.  This price level may be key this week, not only for GS, but for financial stocks in general, as well as for the overall stock market.  GS breaking higher is bullish, falling back under 151.23, neutral to bearish.

There you have it, one price level for one stock, everything riding on it and the whole world is watching.


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VXX Daily Trend Model

The VXX_Daily Trend Model has steered true all summer long.  It will take almost a 10% pop to reverse this model LONG, which would be a Sell Signal for the market:

4/27: BUY   @ 20.50
6/15: SELL @ 26.70
6/24: BUY  @ 28.24
7/7:  SELL @ 26.90
Currrent:   @ 21.73

Note that half the trades were wrong, but that the winners gained substantially  more then the losers, with all four trades gaining a cumulative 8.69 points, or about 42% for the period shown.  This has been a characteristic of this model going back 18 months making it a candidate to filter all market timing signals from the indexes directly, avoiding trading against the direction suggested for the market (inverse to indexes). 

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The path ahead, Part II

Whoosh. 
What was that? 
Your life mate.
Do I get another chance? 
Sorry.

 ---From Monty Python's, "The Meaning of Life"

Of his song, "For Emily, Whenever I May Find Her," Paul Simon says it is not about Emily, not about any real woman, but its about a belief.  In his companion song, "Overs," he said it was about the loss of that belief. 

I waited for her to come, in the allusions of my life.  There was always so much time, so many years and adventures ahead, that belief was easy, a rubber stamp on each new day.  Much the same can be said about everything else in life, success, achievement, family, faith, peace and tranquility.  It's all out there, needing only belief and effort to reel it in.

I started this Blog about six years ago, November 18, 2004.  Earlier that year I had left my then wife and two teenage daughters to start my life over with someone who is now long gone from my life.  Whoosh, what was that?  The Blogs, especially the Sunday ones,  chronicle my journey from a barrier island off the coast of Charleston, South Carolina, to the frozen tundra (or so how I remember Spokane) of eastern Washington, to the desert Southwest.  It is hard for a Cancer to be on the road as we are homebodies.  But I have been a man without a home for so long, I have forgotten what home is and that is the saddest rip of all.

Before any judgments are made,  we have some score-keeping to update.  The labor of love that is AllAllan has morphed itself into a flourishing subscription service with a 90% renewal rate and a satisfaction from the sharing of my work that transcends anything I ever remotely achieved as an attorney.   And last fall I met a delicate soul of immense beauty and grace, who is now a part of my life, or what's left of it.  Score two for the journey.

I can reach deep down into the angst and find its source code, dating back to 2004 and in many ways, 20 or so years before that, or even to the first time I heard, understood and embraced, "For Emily."  Maybe that was the journey, that was my road trip and this is where my home has been waiting for me all these years.  At times (And when I awoke and felt you warm and near), it all makes perfect sense.  That this was the time and place, and person, who was waiting for me to come home for such a long time.

Or maybe this is the first step in a journey that is unfolding as we speak (or I write, but for me at least, its more of an ongoing conversation then a series of essays).  The challenges are certainly real enough on all sides of my ledger.  And where once I was too young to crash and burn, that is no longer the case.  Second chances are finite, a realization that hits only when its too late to do anything about it. I have seen first hand how the ravages of outrageous fortune drained the life out of better men then me.  There but for the grace of God......

I just don't know and I wonder if in the end, any of these questions will get answered, or if there is some plan, some rhyme or reason for all that has gone down, all that I have been, or have done, or have felt.  It is in that sense that maybe we all share life's quandary, predicaments and confusion. 

In the end, will my path make any sense at all?

Another shot of belief, please.


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The path ahead

I post a lot of charts and trading ideas, some better then others and through it all we can easily lose sight of the bigger picture.  I shared some Weekly Trend Models with subscribers earlier this weekend and emphasized how important these charts were for the general path ahead. 

Here are three Weekly Trend Models all sharing the same pattern, characteristics and implications for the remaining months of 2010:

This isn't all that complicated.  The 6% pop in July notwithstanding, these markets topped out earlier this year and completed an initial wave lower.  Over July, that decline has been partially retraced. I put the Fibonacci retracement levels on the middle, SPX chart.  Although the retracement could go higher, it has fulfilled traditional price retracement behavior and the dominant trend, DOWN, can resume at any time. 

This fact has not gone unnoticed by the Trend Models, all of which require significant price strength before they can reverse back LONG.  The Daily Trend Models reversed LONG right after the July 4th weekend and remain LONG going into August.  Once the Daily Trend Models reverse SHORT, it's all over.  Of the three models shown above, the NASDAQ is the closest to reversing SHORT on its Daily chart and I expect that it will lead the other two indexes, if and when those reversals occur.

If the unlikely happens and these Weekly Models reverse LONG, then I will too.  Unless and until that happens, the big picture scenario is that of a fledgling downtrend that has taken a summer break and appears ready to resume it's path lower.


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VXX

Here is a chart of the VXX_240 Trend Model.  A friend of mine trades VXX exclusively because of what he considers it's very predictable behavior characteristics.  You can see the potential on the chart, three very good trades just using this model:

Notice the spikes higher in recent days, all followed by sideways consolidation, with each spike up making a new high.

If an extended back test supports it, I'll start reporting on this model in the subscription service.  An edge is an edge, no matter what the symbol.


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Edge

A simple trend line can expose a lot of truth about any market, index, etf or stock.  That is the concept underlying this Nasdaq_240m Trading Model:

True to the creed of this methodology, the less written the better.  Still, I can't help but point out that we are looking only for an edge in our trading.

edge 

 *A penetrating, incisive quality: "His simplicity sets off the satire, and gives it a finer edge" (William Hazlitt).

 *A margin of superiority; an advantage: a slight edge over the opposition.

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Father & Daughter

A trip to Sky Harbor Airport this morning and so ended a week's visit with my youngest daughter.  It's hard to focus on the stock market with tears in my eyes and sadness in my heart.    This time and place, the concert, the moment in our lives, will be forever chronicled in this simple photograph.  Some years from now, it will be pulled out and remembered.

I love you, sweetheart, I always will. 

I always will.

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ETF Trend Models

Here is a snapshot of the ETF Trend Models that are followed in the Trend Following Trading Model subscription service.  These numbers are as of the close July 26th and are updated for subscribers each day after the market closes. 

The idea here is to let a simple, objective, mechanical algorithm draw a trend line and then to be LONG when prices are above the trend line and SHORT when prices are below the trend line.  Here is an example, using SSO from the above table:

SSO Daily Trend Model

These Trend Models have beaten the pants off of my own analysis this past month, which says something about both my analysis and the Trend Models. Forecasting is easy when we are in sync, but much more difficult when we disagree.  Looking back over the past seven months, the Trend Models win hands down.  It looks from here that identifying a trend is a whole lot easier the forecasting one, a concept that from the looks of these results, can be taken to the bank.

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Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Emerging Opportunity

According to this wave count, the market is tracing out an ABC 4th wave, now into the 50% Fibonacci retracement window of the entire decline from late April and nearing the level of the previous 4th wave from mid-June. 

With the Advanced GET Elliott Oscillator back to the zero line and the False Bar Stochastic at a double top Sell signal pending, the market is setting up for another fall.   We have had several false alarms to the downside and maybe this is just another one of those.....but I doubt it.  That stochastic double top is a highly reliable trigger and should it issue a Sell signal (it hasn't done so yet) I intend to take it in conjunction with what should be some shorter-term trend model Sell signals. 

These are time tested indicators and price patterns.  They are not perfect, nor is anything else in market timing.  But I use them for a reason, i.e. they work more often then they don't.  

As an aside, I found this chart on another site and thought that since it dovetails nicely with the above analysis I would share it here:

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