Renko Sell Signal

Renko Sell Signal - Daily SPX



Tuesday ATR-Sell level for SPX - Daily



Tuesday Sell level for BWT - Daily


Aggressive intra-day Sell levels - 90 minute

Trading notes:

The rally from March is so close to over it would be a shame to throw in the towel now and piss away a good entry on the SHORT trade of the year. As my comments underneath each of the above charts indicate, I am looking to go SHORT around these levels, but will only do so upon confirmation via a break down in prices. Ergo, my attention is upon key levels that would allow an early entry to a substantial decline. A more conservative trade would be to wait for the support channel to be broken, as shown below:

Five waves up + oscillator divergence + break of channel = Mechanical SELL

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Monday interim update

From this past weekend's blog there were two possible scenarios; either the Daily and Weekly charts would trigger Sells to go along with the Intra-day chart Sells, or the Intra-day Sells would flip back to Buys. As the 60 minute chart below shows, it was the latter:

Here is a Daily chart for perspective:

With the Elliott Oscillator still making lower highs while the SPX makes higher highs, the expectation (read:forecast) is for ultimate failure of this rally, a break of the bottom channel support and a free fall decline into the end of the year.

For now this rally continues, but this pattern does not have a happy ending.


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Platinum - Guest Blog

The Priory Platinum Play

It has been almost exactly a month since the last post on The Priory of Sion’s pick. Platinum has moved from 1282 to around 1350-1360.

That’s about $3,500 per contract on $8,100 in margin.
This represents a gain of about 40% per month.

First we look at her purse

SPX Weekly

Six-month long divergence on FBS

W A T C H O U T!

SPX Daily

Elliott Oscillator divergence
Testing Auto-trend channel support
Note BWT&ATR SELLS threshold - 1078


I N T R A - D A Y C H A R T S

240 minute

SELL


120 minute

SELL


90 minute

SELL


2 minute

Final 30 minutes from last Friday

Option expiration noise?
or
The start of an impulse wave down?

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Interim charts

Only one way to interpret these breakdowns

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Key levels for Friday

On a closing basis, here are Friday's closing trade trigger levels for the SPX that will flip the Daily chart from Bullish to Bearish:

BWT: 1078.30

ATR: 1076.71

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GS

Trading GS is tantamount to trading the Illuminati, but if you're up to it, there are some significant moves to be had.

240 minute

On the above 240 minute chart, the Wave 5 channel has held, so far. If GS drops and stays below 185, that is the signal-trigger to short, short short.

90 minute

But this bugger is already short. GS is now synonymous with Western Civilization, as such, this is not a pretty sight. Couple this with the channel break on the 240 minute chart, it will have very negative implications for the general market.

Daily

That said, note that the above Daily chart remains Long and that it will take a daily close below 180 to turn it (and the universe) negative.

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EDZ

The investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, 300% of the inverse daily performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index The fund will invest at least 80% of assets in securities that comprise the index. It will also utilize financial instruments that, in combination, provide leveraged and unleveraged exposure to the index. The fund is nondiversified.

EDZ 90 minute

I published above the description EDZ, but it doesn't really matter much. This is a clear cut BUY signal, no matter what the underlying security happens to be. This is a consummate technical analysis trade, based solely on a chart pattern.

Now back to Dick Cavett appearing on Imus (Fox Business).

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Just Charts Wednesday

UUP - US Dollar ETF



VIX

Shanghai Index



SPX Weekly

My most ominous chart


SPX Daily

I lied, this is even more ominous

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KMKCF

Continental Minerals was brought to my attention by Tom Bishop, who publishes BI Research. This newsletter has been around a long, long time and has had an excellent track record of uncovering a combination of exceptionally strong fundamentals and/or grossly undervalued public companies. Although strictly a fundamental analysis oriented advisory service, Bishop is clearly one of the few who get it. He knows his stuff. (He is not an advertiser here and I pay full retail for my subscription to Bi Research).

KMKCF Weekly

This is a play on two huge copper-gold deposits owned by Continental near Tibet in mainland China. As Tom Bishop writes in his latest issue of BI Research:

"Okay let me spoon-feed the puzzle pieces and
see if you can put it together. China needs
resources like copper to fuel its economy. It’s well
documented that it’s been on a shopping spree.
Continental has lots of the stuff (1.9 BILLION
pounds, plus Newtongmen’s 2.8 BILLION) and has
advanced its project to the point it is knocking on
the door awaiting approval. There’s not much risk
left in the equation. But the project is in a land far
away. The Hunter Dickinson Group, located in
Vancouver and under whose wing Continental was
formed and operates, has a long history of buying
up floundering resource projects, getting them
financed, drilling them off, proving up a worthy ore
body and selling them off to the highest bidder."

KMKCF 90 minute

This morning, KMKCF is up about 5% at $1.40. Bishop thinks these shares are worth $3.00-4.00, minimum. Quoting again from the latest BI Research:

"Continental’s
Xietongmen deposit has 1.9 billion lbs. of
copper and 3.9 million ounces of gold reserves. At
today’s rates expected annual production works out
to about $450 million of revenue a year. The mine
is expected to cost about $600 million and have a
16% rate of return at $1.50 copper and $650 gold.
But using current metal prices which are now $2.90
and $1,053 (up $100 since last our issue), the
difference goes right to the bottom line, increasing
the rate of return to something way higher than
16%. On top of this, Continental has delineated a
second near-surface deposit on the property called
Newtongmen with indicated resources of 2.8 billion
pounds of contained copper, 2.3 million ounces of
gold and 11 million ounces of silver. I continue to
believe KMK is worth something in the $3-4 range
on a per share basis."

KMKCF Daily

The Daily chart is suggesting a move to between $1.75 -$2.50, which may not seem lot a lot from current levels, but Advanced GET has a tendency to revise it's projections upwards as stocks move up, something I expect as long as this rally continues.

My thanks to Tom Bishop for allowing me to share his work, BI Research is an inexpensive ($95 introductory annual subscription), fundamental analysis newsletter and a worthy addition a trader's arsenal.


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