Tuesday, August 15, 2006


One of our tucked away small-cap plays is Valence Technology.

VLNC has a couple things going for it, insider buying and batteries for notebooks, Segway and electric cars.

Valence's batteries have a novel feature of not spontaneously igniting.

As Dell and Sony try to spin their way out of this mess, keep an eye on VLNC.


Anonymous said...

Funny you mention VLNC. I bought last week...missed selling on the spike, but just sold this morning for a 6 percent gain. (Thought that was pretty good, until it kept going to what now would be about 10+ percent gain.)

My concern about holding, however, was the conference call they have scheduled for today at 4p.m. Seems like too much of a wild card -- just as likely to send prices spiraling again as skyrocket. Even when a company seems to be putting out good news, the prices will go down sometimes. Or vice versa.

What's been your experience with CCs? Do they tend to make prices swing one way more than the other, or is just total crap shoot?


A said...

What's been your experience with CCs? Do they tend to make prices swing one way more than the other, or is just total crap shoot?

Jon, leaning toward crap shoot.


Ronny said...

Allan,what is your opinion on keying off of postive earnings surprises for day trading? I would look for 1% pops and cut losses at $100 like you.Could this be a profitable strategy?

A said...

what is your opinion on keying off of postive earnings surprises for day trading

Ronny, I think you're catching on here; anything that moves stocks has the potential to be the basis of a profitable daytrading strategy; study it, backtest it, devise some simple entry/exit and money management rules; the next thing you know, you're writing a blog encouraging others to follow.


logger said...

Another Stansberry quiz.........
This one looks like ARNA

Second-Generation Drugs Are the Real Money Makers
By Rob Fannon

August 10, 2006

In 1996, a drug company called American Health Products was on top of the world…

It had just launched a highly anticipated new diet drug, called Redux® (dex-Fen-fluramine), and sales were soaring. Doctors were prescribing the drug at unprecedented levels for a new commercial launch – more than 20 million prescriptions written in the first year. They were prescribing it alongside another popular diet drug on the market – Phentermine. The two drugs, taken together, were helping patients shed unwanted pounds at rates never seen before.

The popular drug combination came to be known as “Fen-Phen.”

It was the “Fen” portion of the combo, the AHP drug, that was the main culprit behind one of the worst drug disasters in modern history. Once hailed as the breakthrough obesity drug, it was pulled off the market only one year after launch. Doctors at the Mayo Clinic reported heart defects in two dozen women taking the popular diet drug. Since then, 66 studies with similar findings have been reported to the FDA. Current estimates claim approximately 30% of the 6 million Americans who used the drug during its brief stint on the market may be at risk.

The AHP scientists didn’t predict exactly how “well” Redux actually worked. It targeted a particular family of receptors in the brain that helped regulate appetite. However, the drug also had unusually high activity for similar receptors in the heart, which led to the safety debacle.

The medicine got ahead of the science.

In 2002, American Health Products changed its name. Today, the company is known as Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) – a $64 billion, Fortune 500 pharmaceutical company. Wyeth is still sorting out the Fen-Phen legal nightmare; it has set aside $21 billion to cover the expenses and damages from the 50,000 lawsuits that have been filed.

In the years since, the science behind the deadly Fen-Phen travails has been cleared up. The problematic receptor in the heart has been identified. Right now, the second-generation obesity drug that works as the original “Fen” drug was intended, without the side effects, is sailing through clinical trials – and is being developed by this month’s Phase 1 Investor recommendation.

Drugs that work in entirely new ways are labeled “first-in-class.” Historically, it’s not the brand-new, first-in-class drugs that bring in the big bucks. It’s the second- or third-generation progeny of the first-in-class drug, which becomes the commercial blockbusters.

It’s been demonstrated throughout history in the drug industry.

Antihistamines treat various allergies and the common cold. The first antihistamine drug (cimetidine) was once hailed as the next “wonder drug.”

Again, scientists didn’t anticipate exactly how “well” cimetidine worked. Not only did the drug work on its intended targets in the body, it also affected a host of other enzymes critical to metabolism. The drug was later found to interfere with other common drugs such as oral contraceptives, blood thinners, and antidepressants. The side effects were pretty dreadful. One of the worst effects was gynecomastia, or the abnormal breast growth in men, the result of abnormal estrogen metabolism. The medicine got ahead of the science. Clearly, the drug was not safe enough for commercial use at the time of launch.

The second-generation antihistamine drug (ranitidine) is commercially known as Zantac®. The heartburn and peptic ulcer treatment was safer and more specific than its predecessor. Zantac, made by GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK), went on to be the best-selling drug in the world by 1988.

Beta-blockers are the most common and effective drugs to treat heart disease. The second-generation beta-blocker drug proved to be the ultimate breadwinner, too.

Scottish scientist James Black won the 1988 Nobel Prize in medicine for his development of the first clinically successful beta-blocker in the late 1950s. Notice the prize wasn’t awarded for the first beta-blocker but rather the first clinically successful drug – a.k.a. the second-generation drug.

The first-in-class beta-blocker “wonder drug” was launched in the UK in 1962 – only to be pulled from the market a year later, when it was found to cause thyroid tumors in mice. The second-generation beta-blocker (propranolol), the drug that netted Dr. Black the Nobel Prize, was commercially sold as Inderal® by AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN). Inderal reigned as ‘King of the Beta-Blockers’ for the next 30 years, while the first-in-class drug was relegated to some dusty lab shelf that housed mice with thyroid cancer.

Second-generation drugs are the ones investors need to pay attention to. Again, the focus of this month’s Phase 1 Investor report is a second-generation anti-obesity drug, the progeny of the now infamous Fen-Phen diet combination.

This follow-on drug could easily be the most lucrative of all second-generation drugs to date...

Good investing,

Rob Fannon
Editor, Phase 1 Investor

Anonymous said...


Wealth Daily: Special Alert
Dear Reader:

This summer's destined to be one you'll remember.

Especially if you live in Southern California, where rolling blackouts are already beginning. Or New York, where some folks have been without power for over a week.

But while most Americans are stewing in the record-breaking heat, a few savvy investors are finding out how to turn this energy crisis into their financial nirvana.

You see, every extra degree on the thermometer means more demand on the power grid.

Of course, any time we see a crisis of this magnitude, my profit antennae go up. I'm telling you, this could be one of the biggest opportunities in the entire sector.

My last two picks in the sector went great guns....to the tune of 109% and 266%.

My next pick?

This new energy company should easily top both of those winners. Fact is, it's my top recommendation in the sector.

Here's the skinny...

You've seen it in the news: blackouts, power outages, power shortages. The power grid in the US, especially in Southern California and other key areas, just can't handle the demands being put on it.

That means every extra megawatt is as good as gold.

This new company is way ahead of the curve, and has been skillfully buying power plants in these key areas, and is already supplying power to energy-strapped Southern California.

The company is comprised of a group of energy industry veterans, any one of which could step in as CEO in the biggest energy companies in the world. They've been there before.

But now they're focused on solving the energy problem. And they're doing it in record speed.

Because of misallocations and simple mismanagement, there are scores of energy plants sitting idle, or not producing to their full potential.

And that is where this company comes into play.

As a result, this firm can buy these assets for literally pennies on the dollar, then bring them under proper management, and up to full speed-quickly.

The near-term goal is to amass a portfolio of energy assets totaling 1,500 Megawatts of capacity. That amount of electricity is worth over a billion dollars right now.

This company? Its market cap is only about forty five million.

It's truly an early-stage deal in one of the most important markets out there. Let's face it...without electricity, there's not much business going on-of any kind.

Catch my drift?

Based on my conservative calculations, it's undervalued by at least 100% right now. Going forward, I expect this to be a massive winner for us.

Management is actively pursuing scores of additional acquisitions, and I expect news on this front in a matter of weeks, if not days.

With all of the power shortages through explosive demand the country is experiencing this summer, they couldn't have come at a better time.

Within the next year, I expect this company to have at least 1,500 Megawatts of power generating capacity.

And remember...

That much power capacity is worth over $1 billion. Yet this company, which is brand new, has a market cap of less than $50 million.

And that's just one reason why I think we'll see 10 for 1 gains within 18 months. Short term, we're in line for a double or triple on our money, easily.

Now, I've prepared an in-depth report on the situation and the company...every detail you need to profit as this firm takes a flying leap into the most important market in the US.

The report, called Energy Resurrection, is yours free.

Just follow this link Energy Resurrection to get your copy, and I'll throw in a free subscription to my daily investment journal, Wealth Daily.

That way, you'll get regular updates from me and my team.

And, of course, you'll get all of the details on this power generating blockbuster.

But please, don't delay. This type of opportunity doesn't come around very often.


Brian Hicks
Editor, Wealth Daily

Energy Resurrection

A said...

Re: Brian Hicks


Wouldn't touch it.


A said...




Anonymous said...

wow... that was fast... thanks

logger said...

A heavily promoted stock by Agora and Cramer....RTK

The equivalent of a 250-year supply of cheap oil has been discovered in the
foothills of West Virginia!

Now this tiny $5 company has secured an exclusive patent for the technology that
will break the U.S. dependence on foreign oil. And they’ve set off a bidding war
that could hand investors a 378% gain by this coming October. Your free report
containing all the details is available here...


curt504 said...

Allan, to All

RTK, ARNA: both have great stories, the same no profits, the same 5 day chart, touters... and nicely priced CALLs.

Might a strategy be: wait for the fade and ramp back up on more news and buy the 3 month out call?

Or are you more inclined to buy 1 or 2 month out at the money calls now for a few day run?

Thanks for the increadible sleuthing and great story stocks, curt

Anonymous said...

I have discovered the Holy Grail in trading. But my laptop exploded today & I cannot post it here.I really don't know how I'm getting this post itself up as I have no computer.


JK in DC

curt504 said...

Thanks JK in DC,

Are you tipping that we should short DELL? Puts or long term short you think?

Please post the mechanics of your Grail ASAP.

I hope the Grail has fattened your account so a luxo-laptop and more is in your future!


Good luck JK, curt

Anonymous said...

Hi A:

I am riding the RACK up wave. She is still running.

Are you?


A said...

curt, regarding options, I like volume and small spreads, whatever strike price and month has them....all options seem to move at about 60% of the underlying, so minimize silppage in your entries and exits.


A said...

greg, not playing RACK, gl.


A said...

re: RTK

Agora can move stocks, but Cramer is the kiss of death, so please don't get me started on the guy, he is a legend in his own mind, but has little to offer in terms of stock picking. Fade, Fade, Fade.


Anonymous said...

I am out of RACK, made a buck a share or about 4% in an hour or so.


Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Dear Traders:

I found this board by accident thinking it was another BBS.

You know, I'm from Detroit too. Lost my job in the GM downsizing. I made a paltry 54.00/hour working building Buicks.

I'm unemployed now. Why? Speculators.

They drove down the stock, caused all of these problems, and thousands of hard working Americans are out of jobs now because of it.

We earned our living honestly instead of living off the buying & selling of others.

Hartman in Detroit.