Stocks - update

Finally, the long-in-the-tooth SELL SIGNAL on X may be reversing:

X Daily Trend Model

The current SHORT was initiated on April 9, 2010 @ 62.62.  The model will reverse LONG today if X closes above 41.94, which appears likely.   That about a 33% gain in about three months.  

After six months of real time results, it does appear that the individual stocks trend longer and stronger then the indexes and ETF's.  Percentage returns don't care about the underlying source of the profits, its a dollars and cents analysis.

Google is showing a similar pattern:

GOOG Daily Trend Model

GS is still on it's April SHORT:

GS Daily Trend Model

AMZN Daily Trend Model

Hourly SPX Trend Model

Here is an updated look at  my hourly SPX Trend Model:

SPX_60

The above model not perfect, nor is it intended to be.  Nonetheless, it is up over 25 S&P points with its latest Buy signal.  I've pounded the table to ",Respect the trends," over and over again, yet even I am guilty of transgressions against this mantra.  Just when we think we may know it all, karma humbles us.  

Meanwhile, the EW analysis remains the same, expecting new lows before this pattern is complete.  Wave 5 target remains 960-860:

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Portrait of a corrective wave nearing an end

 SPX _15min Trend Model w/EW & False Bar Stochastic

My only quibble with the above-referenced wave count is that I think it's  a second wave correction and a prelude to a third wave down.  Whichever it is and whenever it starts, the next major wave will be to the downside and likely hard down.


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What rally?

Here is my SPX_240m trend model, which shows prices hitting trend line resistance in here, with compelling Fibonacci resistance just above current levels.

In other words, there is much ado about nothing here, a typical relief rally in an ongoing bear market.  The next big trade will be to the downside.

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9600 or bust

As the market started it summer decline in earnest, I've had to "Reject" some Comments that essentially called me various iterations of "perma-bear" using four-letter profanity to get across Mel Gibson-like tirades, as though its all my fault; that I'm the cause of the declines in the markets, the oil volcano in the gulf and of the immigration drug wars on the Arizona-Mexico border.  I should really post some of the trash that gets slung my way, but its way to nasty for a family friendly web site.

The point of "9600 or bust" is to illustrate and emphasize the significance of 9600 in the DJIA.  As is usually my preference, I'll let the charts do most of the persuading here, starting with the biggest time frames and working our way down to the intraday.  You should be able to see the progression, especially if when you get to the bottom (hourly) you work yourself back up.

DJIA Monthly

This may be my favorite, because of its big picture importance.  You will recognize the Advanced GET Wave 5 SELL SIGNAL already confirmed with the break of the trend regression channels in May.  The Monthly Trend Model reverses SHORT on a monthly break below 9600.  Ergo the significance of 9600, it either provides support, or kiss this market good-bye.  What are the probabilities?  Read on.

DJIA Weekly

The question of the week here is whether or not this pattern is closer to the beginning of  a long, extended downtrend, or the end of a corrective downtrend?  The break below 10,000 suggests what I think is the correct answer.

DJIA Daily

Yes, I can count five waves down, but I can also count an ongoing three waves down that is not yet complete.  Again, 9600 looms significant.

DJIA 60 minute

A beautiful trend line for traders.  Note the double bottom just above 9600.  The software says waves 4 and 5 still to come, but wave 3 has to finish first and the implication is that there is no way 9600 holds in light of more selling due to complete the entire pattern.  That itself has dire implications when applied to the Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts above.  

Nothing is set in stone here, but the probabilities suggest that prices are no where near the end of a larger wave count and that suggests a rough and tumble summer ahead for the markets.

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Birthday Present

Trend Following Trading Models

It's been a good week for subscribers of my Trend Following Trading Models.  At the end of this post I'm posting the actual updated Trend Models.  But for starters, here is a snippet from the Weekend Update that went out Saturday, June 26th:

Trend Models & Trades of the Week

"This week generated a few intriguing new signals from the stock trend models.  Accordingly I am highlighting DISH and HGSI as dual Trades of the Week, both triggering Daily SELL SIGNALS. 

"There is also a relatively fresh Daily LONG signal for SDS, generated on Thursday's large decline in the SPX. Since SPX is SHORT and SDS is now LONG, let's add LONG SDS as our third Trade of the Week.

"Since all three of these Trades of the Week are on the SHORT side of the market, they are in that sense, all the same trade.  I personally prefer to mix my trades, some ETF's, some individual stocks, some options and use these fresh reversals to add to existing positions.  But there is a lot that can be said for keeping things much simpler, i.e. establish a SHORT position in the market by going LONG SDS and doing nothing else."

Index, ETF & Stock Trend Models as of June 30, 2010 

 Indexes

 ETF's

Stocks

Disclaimer:  Past performance is not indicative of future results

DJIA_60 minute chart

DJIA 60 minute trend model

This is what we are up against today, a low level consolidation pattern that is lulling us to sleep.  Note similar pattern from June 25-28th.  Same resolution?

DJIA_240 Trend Model

Here is a follow-up to yesterday's DJIA Perspectives blog.  It's the DJIA_240min Trend Model with today's opening gap down.  Initial target for Wave 5 is 9500.

DJIA perspectives

Here are three time perspectives of the DJIA which may explain the current indecision in the market place. 

60 minute

240 minute

Daily