Wednesday, April 28, 2010
NNVC updated chart
The NNVC Daily Trend Model reversed from Long to Short on April 19th, at $2.01. Today, NNVC is 15% lower and is flirting with its 50 day moving average. You can see how this level has provided price support in the past.
As I have written may times, I don't actively trade NNVC, but that philosophy cuts both ways and anyone holding from the April 15th high of $2.57 is getting clobbered. But remember it was only about a year ago when NNVC was trading under $0.50 and I was banging the table to get into it at a bargain price. Thus with the stock up over 200% since then, one could look at the drop to the 50 day moving average as normal and maybe even another buying opportunity.
A
VXX Buy Signal
Yesterday's sharp decline was sufficient to generate a reversal from Short to Long on the VXX Daily Trend Model:
VXX is an exchange traded fund that emulates the VIX, a market volatility measure. As VIX rises, equity prices decline and as VIX declines, equity prices rise. This is evident from the decline in VXX shown in the chart, coinciding with the market rally of the past two months.
Early trading indicates a bounce-back rally, that coupled with a Fed announcement later today makes anything possible. But what this chart tells us is that something is different for the first time since mid-February. Modest new market short positions are suggested, pending confirmation of an intermediate term sell-off in the next few days.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Is it different this time?
A couple of weeks ago we had a financial-led decline, but SDS never budged from its Short trend mode.
An hour before the close today, that short trend is in real jeopardy. Regarding the question first above posed, today's closing price my very well provide the answer.
An hour before the close today, that short trend is in real jeopardy. Regarding the question first above posed, today's closing price my very well provide the answer.
TZA
TZA is a highly leveraged ETF that is an inverse index for the Russell 2000. I watch it mostly on an intermediate daily basis, but adding the hourly provides a head start for traders.
TZA sustained downtrend from mid-February
This short from about $10 has been an excellent way to trade the recent market strength, with gains of about 45% in two months.
TZA 60 minute trend model
The hourly model above is on a fresh Buy signal, but prices have fallen back to intersect with the trend reversal line. One of two outcomes is imminent, either prices find support and rally off of the trend line, or, prices fall below the line and enter a fresh Sell mode. One way to trade this is to enter Long here, with a tight stop at the hourly reversal level (5.45) and if TZA closes below that level, cover and reverse Short.
As long as the daily model is in a Sell mode, that bearish trend gets the benefit of doubt here. When and if the daily flips Long, TZA's bias becomes bullish.
Monday, April 26, 2010
GOOG
In previous posts about GOOG, I've been able to reverse price action in GOOG simply by posting its chart and commenting on its trend. Shall we dance?
GOOG Daily Trend Model
GOOG Weekly Trend Model
Comment:
Won't you look down upon me, Jesus
You've got to help me make a stand
You've just got to see me through another day
My body's aching and my time is at hand
And I won't make it any other way
A
You've got to help me make a stand
You've just got to see me through another day
My body's aching and my time is at hand
And I won't make it any other way
A
Basket of Income
Here is a summary of the Basket of Income Stocks that I sent out to the email list on April 3rd. As you can see, in addition to the approximately 1% per month in dividends, the basket is up an additional 3.25% in less then one month.
I put a hypothetical $3,000 into each of these ten stocks at the open on April 5, 2010. These stocks are all using a low-volatility ATR stop, about half the volatility I use as a default on the other stocks. That has resulted in a more stable trading environment, much fewer trades over the course of the year, albeit at the cost of some additional price slippage on entries and exits. I am also using only Weekly charts, which in and of itself reduces trading. So far, this "more patience, less trading" approach has been niecly profitable and a very easy model to manage.
Will this technique ultimately migrate into the entire trend following model?
Maybe.
A
I put a hypothetical $3,000 into each of these ten stocks at the open on April 5, 2010. These stocks are all using a low-volatility ATR stop, about half the volatility I use as a default on the other stocks. That has resulted in a more stable trading environment, much fewer trades over the course of the year, albeit at the cost of some additional price slippage on entries and exits. I am also using only Weekly charts, which in and of itself reduces trading. So far, this "more patience, less trading" approach has been niecly profitable and a very easy model to manage.
Will this technique ultimately migrate into the entire trend following model?
Maybe.
A
XLF
XLF Daily Trend Model
XLF Weekly Trend Model
This pretty much sums up the dilemma of financials, the GS fallout triggered shorter-term sells, but the weekly trend is still up, over 60% gains from last year's Buy signal. One of these charts will reverse trends and that reversal will be a heads-up for new positions.
NNVC news
Some on-the-surface uneventful news this morning from NNVC, but I am posting it here because of the concise summary of the underlying science behind the company's patents, a concept that each and every one of you shareholders should understand, so the next time you are tempted to bail out early, you pause and consider the implications of not being on board for the entire ride.
WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB) (the "Company"), announced today that the mark “nanoviricides” has now become a registered trademark under the US Patents and Trademarks Office (USPTO). The mark was entered into the “principal register” of trademarks at the USPTO on April 20, 2010.
The mark “nanoviricides” consists of standard characters without claim to any particular font, style, size, or color. It is protected in the corresponding plural and singular forms as well as any capitalizations.
The Company created the novel word “nanoviricide®” in 2005. The Company defined “nanoviricide” to describe a specific type of antiviral nanomaterial that is designed to be capable of binding to, encapsulating, and potentially destroying virus particles. Nanoviricides are based on the TheraCour® polymeric micelle technology.
A nanoviricide is created by chemically attaching a “ligand” to a base TheraCour nanomicelle. The ligand is a special chemical entity that is designed to bind to a virus particle. The specificity of a nanoviricide is expected to be determined by the specificity of the ligand.
Viruses continuously change by a number of mechanisms such as mutations, recombinations, or re-assortments. This is why influenza vaccines and antibodies do not always work well against novel strains of influenza. This is also why attempts to develop “universal” vaccines against a number of different viruses such as HIV, Influenza, Dengue, and Ebola have met with limited successes.
It is generally accepted that, in spite of extensive changes in the virus, a given virus continues to bind to the same cell surface receptor(s) in the same fashion. The Company believes that it is possible to design ligands which mimic such invariant binding signature of a given virus. Using such biomimetic ligands, the Company believes that it is possible to create a nanoviricide that will remain active against a given type of virus, in spite of the changes the virus undergoes. The Company believes that a nanoviricide so designed would “fool” the virus into thinking that the virus is binding to and entering a host cell, while in fact it would be binding to and becoming entrapped inside a nanoviricide micelle. The Company believes that some viruses may be dismantled or destroyed upon interaction with a nanoviricide designed against them. Thus the Company believes that there is a strong likelihood of developing nanoviricides from which a given virus could not escape, in spite of mutations.
About NanoViricides:
NanoViricides, Inc. (www.nanoviricides.com) is a development stage company that is creating special purpose nanomaterials for viral therapy. The Company's novel nanoviricide® class of drug candidates are designed to specifically attack enveloped virus particles and to dismantle them. The Company is developing drugs against a number of viral diseases including H1N1 swine flu, H5N1 bird flu, seasonal Influenza, HIV, oral and genital Herpes, viral diseases of the eye including EKC and herpes keratitis, Hepatitis C, Rabies, Dengue fever, and Ebola virus, among others.
This press release contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company's current expectation regarding future events. Actual events could differ materially and substantially from those projected herein and depend on a number of factors. Certain statements in this release, and other written or oral statements made by NanoViricides, Inc. are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements since they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which are, in some cases, beyond the Company's control and which could, and likely will, materially affect actual results, levels of activity, performance or achievements. The Company assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements for any reason, or to update the reasons actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements, even if new information becomes available in the future. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the company's expectations include, but are not limited to, those factors that are disclosed under the heading "Risk Factors" and elsewhere in documents filed by the company from time to time with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulatory authorities. Although it is not possible to predict or identify all such factors, they may include the following: demonstration and proof of principle in pre-clinical trials that a nanoviricide is safe and effective; successful development of our product candidates; our ability to seek and obtain regulatory approvals, including with respect to the indications we are seeking; the successful commercialization of our product candidates; and market acceptance of our products.
Sunday, April 25, 2010
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