TLR

TLR was a long idea from Monday at about $1.16.


On the above 90 minute chart, the previous high from last week was $1.65. If that gets taken out (with volume), Advanced GET is projecting $2.00-3.00 for this move.

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Weekly SPX

Even though this is a Wednesday and the tradition is for, Just Charts (no words), I wanted to comment on this bigger picture chart.


The rally anticipated late yesterday is unfolding Wednesday morning. Rally or not, the entire move from early March has still not retraced 50% of the entire decline from 2007. Nor has the False Bar Stochastic triggered an "Trending Up" black horizontal line. I can't remember when the FBS has ever stayed so long in an Overbought or Oversold area---7 months---without recognizing a Trend.

My forecast remains, "Watch out below." My trading remains in the direction of the trend as defined by BWT and ATR.

When these two opinions copulate, the fireworks will begin.


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Tuesday afternoon

I know there has been a relative dearth of posts here lately, but personal entanglements and dramas have just sapped my energy. Let's try to quickly and simply bring everything up to date.

The S&P futures are up about 9 points after hours Tuesday, suggesting a 100 point DJIA gap-up tomorrow, if those gains hold through the Asian markets tonight:


Below a Daily chart of the SPX:



The Daily Buy Signal of one week ago is still in force. Nonetheless, I still think this is a major top that will end badly. But we trade the trend, not the forecast. With that False Bar Stochastic shown above and the after-hours romp up in the S&P futures, tomorrow looks to be starting out strong, but how it finishes will be a much better heads-up.

There are some that are pointing out a massive carry trade bet on the falling dollar and that if and when the dollar turns up, the unwinding of that bet will be the catalyst for a global meltdown. Something to keep an eye on, so I'm watching the US Dollar and the Shanghai Index for clues to when this all falls apart.



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Long ideas

These first two are from the GSA model portfolio:

HITK



Proprietary analysis from GSA



CHNG



Proprietary analysis from GSA

This one from a guy who works out in the same gym as Scarlet Johansson

TLR

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For M

I won't call you, but that doesn't mean that I don't think about you.

There is a theme that runs through my life, it starts way back in high school and connects a select number of failed romantic adventures. I have given up trying to find an answer, an explanation, a meaning.

By these words, written by Dylan 40 years ago, there is some comfort in knowing I am not alone in this.

You don't have to listen, but I hope you do:

Big picture perspective

Below are the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the DJIA. By now most of you know how to read and interpret my charts. You can pretty much correctly guess what I think they are saying, but go ahead and form your own opinions, with over 10,000 hits a week, someone is bound to get it right.



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NNVC chart analysis

Here is a Monthly chart of NNVC. I started buying this stock way on the left side of the time line, in August, 2005, at or below 10c a share. I sold some as it started coming down off of its March, 2006 peak, but as you all know, am holding tightly my remaining shares.

I have removed all of my usual studies from this chart, save one, the ATR. Throughout the five or so years shown above, there have been two major ATR Buy Signals. The first ATR Buy Signal was October, 2005, where NNVC opened the month at 13c per share and ran to $3.75 in the next six months.

The second ATR Buy Signal occurred in May, 2008. NNVC opened that month at 66c per share and ran to $1.78 in less then two months.

The view from the Monthly chart shows that NNVC has basically been basing sideways for the past two years, frustrating both the Longs and Shorts. One of these months, in my opinion probably sooner rather then later, NNVC will trigger a third major ATR Buy Signal. From current levels and based upon the first two ATR Buys, minimum expectations are for a 200% pop, with the possibility of ten times that.

On the down side, the Monthly chart shows a two year long base of support just above 50c a share. From current prices, that's a risk of about 33%, projected against apparent potential gains of between 200% and 2,000%.

That is my long-term technical analysis of NNVC. On the fundamental side, there are now a host of potential catalysts that can propel NNVC higher, triggering the ATR Buy Signal. What can change this scenario? None of the potential catalysts occur, there is no pop, no ATR Signal and NNVC remains stagnant for another two years. What are the probabilities of no news-related catalysts? In my view, zero.

I'll try to arrange another Fireside Chat with Dr. Seymour in the near future to cover NNVC's fundamental story. In the meantime, keep in mind Napoleon Hill's famous book, Be Patient [sic] and Grow Rich.


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Another view

One month S&P December Futures Contract

Multiple personalities

Each trading day seems to have its own personality. Identifying the operative persona helps to fine tune signal charts. Here are the 5 minute and 13 minute personalities for today. Which one screams to be followed?

5 minute

13 minute

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Early bird special

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