Friends,
Please remember why we are here.
If you need to be reminded, it's written to the right------------>
I took a heated discussion attached to the NNVC - CEO Interview blog, down. It was an all or nothing proposition, I couldn't just remove the offensive Comments, so we lost some valuable insights to accommodate the elimination of some inappropriate accusations and name-calling.
Please, lets not go there again.
A
PS: No comments to this post either, nothing else need be said.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
S&P trade chart & NNVC update
Here is my main trading chart for intra-day S&P trading. Take a close look, I'll talk about it below.
First of all, note that it is a 13-minute chart. This started out as a compromise between 10 and 15 minute charts, both of which worked well and when I couldn't decide on which one to follow, I comprised with the fibonacci number about mid-way between the two. Happenstance, maybe, but it works.
Next, look at all those cross-currents evidenced by sets of parallel trend channels. That's what all this choppy trading has done recently, generated a lot of sideways action contained between various sets of trend channels. A lot of resistance both above and below current levels, which ever one gives first, that's the one that takes us out of these doldrums.
Although the structure of the EW pattern allows for another high to complete five waves up, I'm not betting on it. A failure seems just as likely to me.
Finally, the FBS is oversold and looks to be turning up. This with the wave pattern suggests a rally pending. But its a weak pattern and the FBS could just as easily go into a trend mode, a down trend mode.
Conclusion: a market like this will chop a trader to pieces. It can't go sideways forever. Well, I guess it can, but not likely. Looking for the next break, either up or down, to put on size.
This is a Weekly chart. Prices gapped up over a one year downward sloping regression channel and have come back down to kiss the channel good-bye, before exploding up. Classic.
A
First of all, note that it is a 13-minute chart. This started out as a compromise between 10 and 15 minute charts, both of which worked well and when I couldn't decide on which one to follow, I comprised with the fibonacci number about mid-way between the two. Happenstance, maybe, but it works.
Next, look at all those cross-currents evidenced by sets of parallel trend channels. That's what all this choppy trading has done recently, generated a lot of sideways action contained between various sets of trend channels. A lot of resistance both above and below current levels, which ever one gives first, that's the one that takes us out of these doldrums.
Although the structure of the EW pattern allows for another high to complete five waves up, I'm not betting on it. A failure seems just as likely to me.
Finally, the FBS is oversold and looks to be turning up. This with the wave pattern suggests a rally pending. But its a weak pattern and the FBS could just as easily go into a trend mode, a down trend mode.
Conclusion: a market like this will chop a trader to pieces. It can't go sideways forever. Well, I guess it can, but not likely. Looking for the next break, either up or down, to put on size.
NNVC update:
This is a Weekly chart. Prices gapped up over a one year downward sloping regression channel and have come back down to kiss the channel good-bye, before exploding up. Classic.
A
Monday, April 27, 2009
NNVC - Interview with CEO
Newly posted on the iHub NNVC board.
A
----------------------------------------------------
Highlights of Today's CEO Interview with Ludlow Capital.
Ludlow Capital Group today posted an 18 1/2 minute interview with NanoViricides CEO Eugene Seymour that was conducted by telephone two days ago on the 25th.
http://www.ludlowcapital.com/reports/bio/nnvc.html
The interview is very interesting relative to the current Swine Flu outbreak, and contains some new information about the company's progress toward licensing of it's Flu and HIV drugs.
I have gone through the 18 minute 30 second interview and summarized what I believe to be several important passages, which I present below.
I also was able to "clean up" some of the telephone hum and balance out some of the audio levels, making the interview much easier to understand and more pleasant to listen to. I've uploaded this cleaned up file to some server space:
http://www.MyDocsOnline.com/pub/DaysOnTheBeach/20090427-NNVC-Ludlow.mp3
Dr. Eugene Seymour, CEO NanoViricides, interviewed by Ludlow Capital Group on 4/15/2009
00:00 -- Intros and background of flu viruses. How viruses enter cells and replicate.
07:00 -- Traditional ways to deal with viral illness 1) with vaccines, and 2) with Tamiflu and similar drugs which are typically administered after symptoms develop and attempt to interfere with viral replication.
09:40 NanoViricides presented Flu-Cide data to a major pharma two months ago, demonstrating "excellent results . . . so much better than Tamiflu". The major pharma expressed an interest in moving forward with Flu-Cide.
11:20 -- How NanoViricides' drugs attack viruses, and why they are broad spectrum.
13:15 -- NanoViricides has been spending it's time on HIV and is "in discussions with multiple pharma companies now about our HIV drug . . . we feel that we can achieve what is called a 'functional cure' [for HIV]". CEO Seymour explained his use of the term "functional cure" and described how it is achieved.
15:10 -- Dr. Seymour gave his opinion on the current Swine Flu outbreak, saying "this could be it [could become a pandemic] . . . showing all the signs of 1917 [the beginnings of the Spanish Flu pandemic] . . . it's a perfect storm". CEO Seymour explained what disease characteristics are most conducive to the creation and sustainability of a pandemic.
16:40 -- "We're rushing as fast as we can to build the manufacturing capability to produce a large amount of our drug . . . when you take it it eradicates the virus in the body".
A
----------------------------------------------------
Highlights of Today's CEO Interview with Ludlow Capital.
Ludlow Capital Group today posted an 18 1/2 minute interview with NanoViricides CEO Eugene Seymour that was conducted by telephone two days ago on the 25th.
http://www.ludlowcapital.com/reports/bio/nnvc.html
The interview is very interesting relative to the current Swine Flu outbreak, and contains some new information about the company's progress toward licensing of it's Flu and HIV drugs.
I have gone through the 18 minute 30 second interview and summarized what I believe to be several important passages, which I present below.
I also was able to "clean up" some of the telephone hum and balance out some of the audio levels, making the interview much easier to understand and more pleasant to listen to. I've uploaded this cleaned up file to some server space:
http://www.MyDocsOnline.com/pub/DaysOnTheBeach/20090427-NNVC-Ludlow.mp3
Dr. Eugene Seymour, CEO NanoViricides, interviewed by Ludlow Capital Group on 4/15/2009
00:00 -- Intros and background of flu viruses. How viruses enter cells and replicate.
07:00 -- Traditional ways to deal with viral illness 1) with vaccines, and 2) with Tamiflu and similar drugs which are typically administered after symptoms develop and attempt to interfere with viral replication.
09:40 NanoViricides presented Flu-Cide data to a major pharma two months ago, demonstrating "excellent results . . . so much better than Tamiflu". The major pharma expressed an interest in moving forward with Flu-Cide.
11:20 -- How NanoViricides' drugs attack viruses, and why they are broad spectrum.
13:15 -- NanoViricides has been spending it's time on HIV and is "in discussions with multiple pharma companies now about our HIV drug . . . we feel that we can achieve what is called a 'functional cure' [for HIV]". CEO Seymour explained his use of the term "functional cure" and described how it is achieved.
15:10 -- Dr. Seymour gave his opinion on the current Swine Flu outbreak, saying "this could be it [could become a pandemic] . . . showing all the signs of 1917 [the beginnings of the Spanish Flu pandemic] . . . it's a perfect storm". CEO Seymour explained what disease characteristics are most conducive to the creation and sustainability of a pandemic.
16:40 -- "We're rushing as fast as we can to build the manufacturing capability to produce a large amount of our drug . . . when you take it it eradicates the virus in the body".
Another bar in the wall
Apologies to Pink Floyd, but it just seems to fit.
This week the market is putting another bar in the Weekly analysis which has been guiding this blog since soon after the Wave 2 Top shown, circa late summer of 2008. Each new bar has brought the weekly stochastic just so much closer to its pending SELL SIGNAL. It's not a matter so much of if anymore, it's a matter of when. Now, the fundamental backdrop of a deadly global flu pandemic is filling the "How & Why?" pieces of the puzzle.
Doesn't look like prices will reach the upper channel, but that possibility is out there, just in case. Looks to me like one, maybe two bars to go and everything comes together in one heck of a global panic.
A
This week the market is putting another bar in the Weekly analysis which has been guiding this blog since soon after the Wave 2 Top shown, circa late summer of 2008. Each new bar has brought the weekly stochastic just so much closer to its pending SELL SIGNAL. It's not a matter so much of if anymore, it's a matter of when. Now, the fundamental backdrop of a deadly global flu pandemic is filling the "How & Why?" pieces of the puzzle.
Doesn't look like prices will reach the upper channel, but that possibility is out there, just in case. Looks to me like one, maybe two bars to go and everything comes together in one heck of a global panic.
A
Flu basket follow-up
Each of the five Swine flu picks are up strongly today, with all but one, NNVC, now below opening prices.
The crisis is not over, in fact it is just beginning, so all five stocks are BUYS at current levels.
Why is NNVC holding its gains and adding to them?
Here is a link to an interview with NNVC's CEO, Dr. Eugene Seymour, done by Ludlow BioVentures over this past weekend:
The crisis is not over, in fact it is just beginning, so all five stocks are BUYS at current levels.
Why is NNVC holding its gains and adding to them?
Here is a link to an interview with NNVC's CEO, Dr. Eugene Seymour, done by Ludlow BioVentures over this past weekend:
Dr. Seymour's audio interview
scroll down to middle of page until you see this:
then click on play arrow
Congratulations to all who have had the confidence and belief in this company to hang in for today's gains, which if I am right, are only the beginning of an exceptional run.....the upside of NanoViricides is almost immeasurable. A functional cure for just about any disease that is viral-based. Let your imaginations envelop and run with that one.
A
scroll down to middle of page until you see this:
then click on play arrowCongratulations to all who have had the confidence and belief in this company to hang in for today's gains, which if I am right, are only the beginning of an exceptional run.....the upside of NanoViricides is almost immeasurable. A functional cure for just about any disease that is viral-based. Let your imaginations envelop and run with that one.
A
NNVC - Swine Flu Drug
NanoViricides, Inc. Says Flu-Cide Drug Designed to Destroy All Influenza A Viruses Including Swine and Bird Flu
Already shown to be effective against diverse influenza subtypes such as H1N1 and different clades of H5N1
On Monday April 27, 2009, 7:00 am EDT
WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB) (the "Company"), announced that it is developing FluCide(™), its flagship anti-influenza drug candidate, to work against all influenza types and subtypes. FluCide has been shown to be effective against both common influenza subtype H1N1, as well as two different variants of bird flu subtype H5N1.
The Company has previously announced excellent results in both animal studies and cell culture studies against widely different influenza subtypes and strains. If these results are confirmed in further animal and human studies, then FluCide would likely be considered the best ever drug effective against all influenzas. The Company is communicating its capabilities to various agencies involved in the current epidemic response.
The current swine flu outbreak is significant in that the H1N1 virus causing it is novel (http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/apr2109swine.html). The US Department of Homeland Security has declared a Swine Flu Emergency yesterday. The WHO has said that the outbreak is an emergency of international concern (http://www.upi.com/Health_News/2009/04/26/DHS-declares-swine-flu-emergency/UPI-53711240725694/). The pig is known to be a transitional species for influenza viruses. That means re-assortment (i.e. mixing) of genes from bird flu, human flu, and swine flu viruses can take place in pigs. This can lead to more lethal, drug resistant novel strains to emerge from different existing ones.
"Nanoviricides(™) have clear advantages over antibodies and vaccines as antiviral strategies," said Dr. Diwan, President of NanoViricides. Antibodies are relatively specific to a particular virus strain or subtype. It is well known that HIV and influenza viruses among many others, quickly escape antibodies. Vaccines depend upon the development of antibodies by the host, and thus, cannot protect efficiently against those viruses which are continually changing their character, such as the influenza virus. Influenza vaccines in particular have to be developed with the strain that is expected to infect in the next year’s cycle. It is well known that this is not a failure-proof strategy for epidemic-causing strains that are novel.
Already shown to be effective against diverse influenza subtypes such as H1N1 and different clades of H5N1
On Monday April 27, 2009, 7:00 am EDT
WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB) (the "Company"), announced that it is developing FluCide(™), its flagship anti-influenza drug candidate, to work against all influenza types and subtypes. FluCide has been shown to be effective against both common influenza subtype H1N1, as well as two different variants of bird flu subtype H5N1.
The Company has previously announced excellent results in both animal studies and cell culture studies against widely different influenza subtypes and strains. If these results are confirmed in further animal and human studies, then FluCide would likely be considered the best ever drug effective against all influenzas. The Company is communicating its capabilities to various agencies involved in the current epidemic response.
The current swine flu outbreak is significant in that the H1N1 virus causing it is novel (http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/apr2109swine.html). The US Department of Homeland Security has declared a Swine Flu Emergency yesterday. The WHO has said that the outbreak is an emergency of international concern (http://www.upi.com/Health_News/2009/04/26/DHS-declares-swine-flu-emergency/UPI-53711240725694/). The pig is known to be a transitional species for influenza viruses. That means re-assortment (i.e. mixing) of genes from bird flu, human flu, and swine flu viruses can take place in pigs. This can lead to more lethal, drug resistant novel strains to emerge from different existing ones.
"Nanoviricides(™) have clear advantages over antibodies and vaccines as antiviral strategies," said Dr. Diwan, President of NanoViricides. Antibodies are relatively specific to a particular virus strain or subtype. It is well known that HIV and influenza viruses among many others, quickly escape antibodies. Vaccines depend upon the development of antibodies by the host, and thus, cannot protect efficiently against those viruses which are continually changing their character, such as the influenza virus. Influenza vaccines in particular have to be developed with the strain that is expected to infect in the next year’s cycle. It is well known that this is not a failure-proof strategy for epidemic-causing strains that are novel.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Swine flu basket - II
Two more stellar looking charts, courtesy of Doug from my old stomping grounds, Atlanta:
All these charts are beginning to look the same, the start of impulsive up moves, a perfect storm for traders like us. BCRX has some strong fundamentals to go along with all of the above:
That brings us to five stocks to start off the Swine Flu Basket. Here they are listed along with respective market caps and share prices as of Friday's close:
A
AVI Biopharma
AVII is already on the run, targeting $1.60 but poised to go a lot higher. This was a $25 stock back in 2000, when flu was still a three letter word.AVI BioPharma, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery and development of therapeutic products based on antisense and cancer immunotherapy technology. The company's products under various development stages comprise AVI-4658, a Phase I human clinical trial product to restore, prevent, or slow deterioration of muscle function; AVI-5038, a preclinical stage product to skip exon 50 and restore a range of associated mutations; AVI-5126, a Phase II clinical trial product for the treatment of cardiovascular restenosis; and AVI-6002 and AVI-6003, which are in Phase I clinical trials to treat diseases caused by Dengue, Ebola, Marburg, and JunÃn viruses. It has strategic alliances with Chiron Corporation; Cook Group Incorporated; Ercole Biotech, Inc.; Eleos Inc.; Charley's Fund, Inc.; and the United States Department of Defense. The company was founded in 1980 and is based in Corvallis, Oregon.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals
All these charts are beginning to look the same, the start of impulsive up moves, a perfect storm for traders like us. BCRX has some strong fundamentals to go along with all of the above:
That brings us to five stocks to start off the Swine Flu Basket. Here they are listed along with respective market caps and share prices as of Friday's close:
NNVC $98M.....$0.80
NVAX $98M.....$1.42
SVA $84M......$1.97
AVII $76M.....$0.89
BRCX $85M.....$2.26
NVAX $98M.....$1.42
SVA $84M......$1.97
AVII $76M.....$0.89
BRCX $85M.....$2.26
A
Swine flu basket
As some readers have pointed out, a few years ago we did very well with a basket of bird flu stocks during the worldwide bird flu threat. The difference this time is that swine flu is more of a fact then a threat. The link above to my March, 2006 post listing all the stocks in the bird flu basket is one source of ideas for swine flu stocks. I've taken just three of those stocks to put in the swine flu basket, focusing on what I believe are the three single best ideas. These stocks, among others, are low priced and all have the real potential for triple digit returns in the tumultuous times ahead.
You all know by now my first pick, NNVC, it is perhaps the only one that you need as it is placed in a sweet spot of treatment, they don't produce vaccines, they produce functional cures.
Above is a one year Weekly chart of NNVC. As I wrote yesterday at the Anti-Cramer site, this stock is pennies away from a major break-out. I expect it to open well above the $0.83 break-out level on Monday.
The second stock for consideration is NVAX. This stock treated us very well as part of the avian flu basket of stocks and based on Friday's price action, just shy of a double in one day, it is already running:
NVAX was an $8 stock at the height of the bird flu run, a $16 dollar stock in 2002. One or both of these former high levels could get taken out.
Below is a description, then a chart of the third swine flu basket stock, SVA.
During the bird flu scare, SVA hit $9.50. The EW chart above is suggesting $3.50 for its initial run, but that could wind up being only Wave 1 of a Primary degree five wave advance, taking out it's old high.
You are welcome to add to this basket of three stocks any stocks that you think belong. If you do, feel free to share your ideas in Comments. Please keep in mind that during the 2005-2006 bird flu scare, the stock market was still in a major up phase. This time is different, the market is in a major down phase. I would be much more aggressive in taking profits on partial positions as these stocks pop with the news.
A
NanoViricides
You all know by now my first pick, NNVC, it is perhaps the only one that you need as it is placed in a sweet spot of treatment, they don't produce vaccines, they produce functional cures.
Above is a one year Weekly chart of NNVC. As I wrote yesterday at the Anti-Cramer site, this stock is pennies away from a major break-out. I expect it to open well above the $0.83 break-out level on Monday.
Novavax
The second stock for consideration is NVAX. This stock treated us very well as part of the avian flu basket of stocks and based on Friday's price action, just shy of a double in one day, it is already running:
NVAX was an $8 stock at the height of the bird flu run, a $16 dollar stock in 2002. One or both of these former high levels could get taken out.
Sinovac Biotech
Below is a description, then a chart of the third swine flu basket stock, SVA.
Sinovac Biotech, Ltd., a biopharmaceutical company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and sale of vaccines that protect against human infectious diseases primarily in the People's Republic of China. It offers Healive, a vaccine for hepatitis A; Bilive, a combined hepatitis A and B vaccine; and Anflu, a split virus influenza vaccine. The company also develops vaccines for the H5N1 strain of pandemic influenza virus that are in Phase I and Phase II clinical trials; a vaccine for the Japanese encephalitis virus, which is in pre-clinical development stage; and a vaccine for the SARS virus that has completed a Phase I clinical trial. Sinovac Biotech markets and sells its vaccine products primarily through various provincial and municipal centers for disease control. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
During the bird flu scare, SVA hit $9.50. The EW chart above is suggesting $3.50 for its initial run, but that could wind up being only Wave 1 of a Primary degree five wave advance, taking out it's old high.
You are welcome to add to this basket of three stocks any stocks that you think belong. If you do, feel free to share your ideas in Comments. Please keep in mind that during the 2005-2006 bird flu scare, the stock market was still in a major up phase. This time is different, the market is in a major down phase. I would be much more aggressive in taking profits on partial positions as these stocks pop with the news.
A
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Something wicked this way comes
This is not how I would have preferred to get rich off of NNVC. But each passing hour seems to be drawing us closer to a global pandemic and a potential world wide health catastrophe. Look at the time stamp of this Press Release by Ludlow BioVentures. Something wicked this way comes.
Nanoviricides, Inc. (NNVC) Research Opinion
Last Updated: April 24, 2009 - 9:17pm EST
NEW YORK--Ludlow BioVentures upgrades its research rating on Nanoviricides, Inc. (OTC: NNVC), a development stage company that is creating special purpose nanomaterials for viral therapy, maintains A- rating, and near-term price target of $2.50 per share based on potential 'swine flu' pandemic. Interview pending.
Summary
Recent announcement of an outbreak of a new strain of the H1N1 swine Influenza should put viral research companies, such as NanoViricieds (NNVC), in play this coming week. NanoViricieds utilizes creative and unique nanomaterials for targeting and destroying viruses. The company's nanoviricide(TM) drug candidates are designed to specifically attack enveloped virus particles and dismantle them, as opposed to vaccines which work to prevent the delivery of the virus payload. This unique approach makes NNVC a interesting play in the field of viral therapy, and may hold some very promising cures to a number of viral infections.
To this effect, Ludlow BioVentures is maintaining NNVC rating of A-, but raising its near-term price target to $2.50 to $3.00, with longer-range price target of $5.00 per share.
Pending Investor Interview
Ludlow BioVentures has been in contact with Dr. Eugene Seymour, the President and CEO of NanoViricieds, to discuss this recent swine flu outbreak, and CDC reaction. We anticipate conducting an investor call with the company sometime over the weekend to discuss his take on this breaking news event, and how NNVC could be a strategic player in preventing current and future viral pandemics. Register below for Updates
Officials: 8 NYC Students Probably Have Swine Flu
Swine flu could infect U.S. trade and travel
Swine Flu May Be Named Event of ‘International Concern’ by WHO
A
Nanoviricides, Inc. (NNVC) Research Opinion
Last Updated: April 24, 2009 - 9:17pm EST
NEW YORK--Ludlow BioVentures upgrades its research rating on Nanoviricides, Inc. (OTC: NNVC), a development stage company that is creating special purpose nanomaterials for viral therapy, maintains A- rating, and near-term price target of $2.50 per share based on potential 'swine flu' pandemic. Interview pending.
Summary
Recent announcement of an outbreak of a new strain of the H1N1 swine Influenza should put viral research companies, such as NanoViricieds (NNVC), in play this coming week. NanoViricieds utilizes creative and unique nanomaterials for targeting and destroying viruses. The company's nanoviricide(TM) drug candidates are designed to specifically attack enveloped virus particles and dismantle them, as opposed to vaccines which work to prevent the delivery of the virus payload. This unique approach makes NNVC a interesting play in the field of viral therapy, and may hold some very promising cures to a number of viral infections.
To this effect, Ludlow BioVentures is maintaining NNVC rating of A-, but raising its near-term price target to $2.50 to $3.00, with longer-range price target of $5.00 per share.
Pending Investor Interview
Ludlow BioVentures has been in contact with Dr. Eugene Seymour, the President and CEO of NanoViricieds, to discuss this recent swine flu outbreak, and CDC reaction. We anticipate conducting an investor call with the company sometime over the weekend to discuss his take on this breaking news event, and how NNVC could be a strategic player in preventing current and future viral pandemics. Register below for Updates
Officials: 8 NYC Students Probably Have Swine Flu
Swine flu could infect U.S. trade and travel
Swine Flu May Be Named Event of ‘International Concern’ by WHO
A
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)