I came across this Merrill Lynch report on Uranium, published in July, 2006, covering the the fundamentals of the sector and recommending several stocks.
The Dines Letter annual forecast issue is due out any day now and I suspect there will be more on uranium picks in that issue. Meanwhile, our uranium picks FRG and PNP.TO are pulling back a bit on the worldwide commodity prices drop, maybe a buying opportunity in those names. Uranium, according to Dines at least, is not just a commodity anymore, he considers it the investment opportunity of a lifetime.
A
Friday, January 12, 2007
Saturday, January 06, 2007
Thinking and Trading
Thinking about what you are doing is probably the most underused tool in trading. Let me give you a non-trading example of what I am getting at here.
Over this past week, I lost all my personal preferences, bookmarks, mailboxes and custom settings on my Powerbook (Macintosh G4). My first recourse was Apple Support and when that didn't help, I posted the problem at the Apple Discussion Forum. Still no relief, but I did get some insights from those two sources as to how all of this information is organized on my computer.
Thinking about the loss, and what caused it, I started a logical train of thought that led me to a misplaced Library folder, found it, put it back where it belonged and bright and early this Saturday morning, everything was exactly where it should be, problem solved.
The analogy to trading is direct. Sometimes we look to an indicator, or guru, or someone else's opinion for an easy answer for what to do. We learned this habit because sometimes it works like that. A Blog, or newsletter, or indicator leads us into a very profitable trade and we spend years trying to make that happen again. But it was a random event and since there are only two directions that a stock can go, getting it right happens, whether there is any insight there or not.
What has worked best for me in trading is thinking about why something worked and not so much searching for the holy grail, be it a guru or indicator. An example of this is our Insider Buying system. We know stocks go up when lots of stock is being bought by multiple insiders. We know where the information is made available and we know the nuances of why some of these pop more then others, and why some are have lasting effects more then just the immediate pops.
Now I have promoted the work of Eric Muathe and Jim Dines here before, so how do I reconcile those recommendations? Muathe has found a breakout pattern that works and Dines has a more geopolitical bottom down approach for finding trends in financial markets before they are recognized as trends by the masses. In both cases, they don't replace the traders own brain, they expand the potential. I can find a Muathe break-out without Eric posting the stock on his web site.
So my message is simply that becoming more self-reliant in your trading will bring a success that goes beyond the profits of any individual trade. No two paths to trading success are the same, but intrinsic to every successful trader there is an independent thought process.
Look inside, its there.
A
Over this past week, I lost all my personal preferences, bookmarks, mailboxes and custom settings on my Powerbook (Macintosh G4). My first recourse was Apple Support and when that didn't help, I posted the problem at the Apple Discussion Forum. Still no relief, but I did get some insights from those two sources as to how all of this information is organized on my computer.
Thinking about the loss, and what caused it, I started a logical train of thought that led me to a misplaced Library folder, found it, put it back where it belonged and bright and early this Saturday morning, everything was exactly where it should be, problem solved.
The analogy to trading is direct. Sometimes we look to an indicator, or guru, or someone else's opinion for an easy answer for what to do. We learned this habit because sometimes it works like that. A Blog, or newsletter, or indicator leads us into a very profitable trade and we spend years trying to make that happen again. But it was a random event and since there are only two directions that a stock can go, getting it right happens, whether there is any insight there or not.
What has worked best for me in trading is thinking about why something worked and not so much searching for the holy grail, be it a guru or indicator. An example of this is our Insider Buying system. We know stocks go up when lots of stock is being bought by multiple insiders. We know where the information is made available and we know the nuances of why some of these pop more then others, and why some are have lasting effects more then just the immediate pops.
Now I have promoted the work of Eric Muathe and Jim Dines here before, so how do I reconcile those recommendations? Muathe has found a breakout pattern that works and Dines has a more geopolitical bottom down approach for finding trends in financial markets before they are recognized as trends by the masses. In both cases, they don't replace the traders own brain, they expand the potential. I can find a Muathe break-out without Eric posting the stock on his web site.
So my message is simply that becoming more self-reliant in your trading will bring a success that goes beyond the profits of any individual trade. No two paths to trading success are the same, but intrinsic to every successful trader there is an independent thought process.
Look inside, its there.
A
Saturday, December 30, 2006
How Much Does This Hurt?
It's 8:00am on Saturday and I am about to leave for my daughter's final tournament basketball game in downtown Charleston. This is the reason for my two week trip, and it has been worth every effort to see Alana mature into her team's best player, her team's leader and inspiration. Maybe I had some part in it, many years ago.
But these two weeks have also served to remind me how much damage I had done by leaving them a couple years ago. It's invisible, silent, beneath the faces of my two daughters, now young women, the change I missed when another calling took me away.
No regrets, no tears good-bye.
Maybe everything works out for the best in the end. For everything lost, something is gained. But sitting by myself last night, alone with all the memories, doubts, and love, with the sound of the Atlantic off in the distance, my only thought was,
How much does this hurt?
A
But these two weeks have also served to remind me how much damage I had done by leaving them a couple years ago. It's invisible, silent, beneath the faces of my two daughters, now young women, the change I missed when another calling took me away.
No regrets, no tears good-bye.
Maybe everything works out for the best in the end. For everything lost, something is gained. But sitting by myself last night, alone with all the memories, doubts, and love, with the sound of the Atlantic off in the distance, my only thought was,
How much does this hurt?
A
Thursday, December 28, 2006
Uranium Picks
We've bought a few uranium picks based on the very bullish uranium analysis of Jim Dines. You can see my recent Blogs on this here. A couple picks that have done very well have been PNP.TO and FRG. I don't usually like to buy stocks that have "dot_extentions", but Pinetree Capital, PNP.TO has been an excellent pick.
What to do now?
In his last two issues of The Dines Report, Jim Dines devoted most of the editorial content to making the case that the bull market in uranium stocks is still ahead, not behind. In particular, he likes, among others, these two stocks, FRG and PNP.TO.
So I'm holding tight, will add more on any drops and am basically following Dines into this sector, which he thinks is THE sector for the new year.
A
What to do now?
In his last two issues of The Dines Report, Jim Dines devoted most of the editorial content to making the case that the bull market in uranium stocks is still ahead, not behind. In particular, he likes, among others, these two stocks, FRG and PNP.TO.
So I'm holding tight, will add more on any drops and am basically following Dines into this sector, which he thinks is THE sector for the new year.
A
Thursday, December 21, 2006
NTRZ
NTRZ was a pick from Muathe.com, a service I highlighted a few weeks ago, here. It was first brought to attention on Dec 12th as a "Stock to Watch", closing price $2.45. The on Monday Dec 18th Muathe sent out an Intra-day alert that NTRZ was breaking out, closing price that day was $2.45.
NTRZ hit $2.74 today. That's 11.8% from a $2.45 entry. But more meaningfully, as Eric Muathe points out repeatedly on his charts, the chart pattern is his standard breakout type set-up. This is why I like the service, its not just a source of trading ideas, it is a source of education on chart patterns, and one in particular that shows up again and again in the huge triple digit winners over the years. NTRZ may or may not become one of those, but even when using his recommended 5-10% stop, it is likely this pattern will catch enough of these doublers and triplers to make the effort worthwhile.
Someone sent me an email a while back, accusing me of being nothing but a shill. In the case of Muathe.com, a compliment.
A
NTRZ hit $2.74 today. That's 11.8% from a $2.45 entry. But more meaningfully, as Eric Muathe points out repeatedly on his charts, the chart pattern is his standard breakout type set-up. This is why I like the service, its not just a source of trading ideas, it is a source of education on chart patterns, and one in particular that shows up again and again in the huge triple digit winners over the years. NTRZ may or may not become one of those, but even when using his recommended 5-10% stop, it is likely this pattern will catch enough of these doublers and triplers to make the effort worthwhile.
Someone sent me an email a while back, accusing me of being nothing but a shill. In the case of Muathe.com, a compliment.
A
Monday, December 18, 2006
Sally Says.....
For the uninitiated, Sally is our Lady of the I-buy, our near real time alert service that calls attention to insider buying on the open market, which itself is often a harbinger of higher stock prices. You can read more about Sally here.
Last week Sally pointed out that Insiders were all over NR - Newpark Resources. This is not a typical series of I-Buys, where Insiders try to scoop up a severely undervalued stock that has gotten unjustly whacked in the marketplace. Here, Insiders have been buying what they consider a severely undervalued stock as it is racing to new highs....every day last week. In the past five trading days NR has risen from $6.50, to $7.68 this morning, or about 20%.
NR started 2006 at about $9.50 a share. Is it headed back that high, or higher? NR's Insiders seem to be weighing in on this question with their wallets. As for me, 4 out of 5 I-buys are day-trades for me, trading the pop that usually follows the public dissemination of Insider-Buys.
But about one of the five, I hang onto longer term, and that is the case here. As long as NR is headed up, up toward double figures, I'm along for the ride.
A
Last week Sally pointed out that Insiders were all over NR - Newpark Resources. This is not a typical series of I-Buys, where Insiders try to scoop up a severely undervalued stock that has gotten unjustly whacked in the marketplace. Here, Insiders have been buying what they consider a severely undervalued stock as it is racing to new highs....every day last week. In the past five trading days NR has risen from $6.50, to $7.68 this morning, or about 20%.
NR started 2006 at about $9.50 a share. Is it headed back that high, or higher? NR's Insiders seem to be weighing in on this question with their wallets. As for me, 4 out of 5 I-buys are day-trades for me, trading the pop that usually follows the public dissemination of Insider-Buys.
But about one of the five, I hang onto longer term, and that is the case here. As long as NR is headed up, up toward double figures, I'm along for the ride.
A
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Sixteen Candles
Tired of having the bellowing, bald, banal Cramer on my front Blog, here is something new, something I've never done before at AllAllan.
Below are the sixteen stocks I am currently holding in the fund I manage. Although I do a lot of short term trading in the fund, one of my systems actually holds stocks over the course of weeks and/or months. It is this portion of the fund that is represented by these stocks.
All are bought on the basis of both fundamental and technical considerations, and those same considerations are put into play when removing a stock from the portfolio.
So for whatever it is worth, with all the usual cautions, disclaimers and limitations of warranties, express or implied, and without further ado-booyah, my sixteen candles:
AAPL
AMAG
ANAD
FNSR
FRG
GOOG
ISIS
LNOP
LNUX
PNP
PSEM
ROY
SIGM
SIMG
SRVY
ZOLT
Below are the sixteen stocks I am currently holding in the fund I manage. Although I do a lot of short term trading in the fund, one of my systems actually holds stocks over the course of weeks and/or months. It is this portion of the fund that is represented by these stocks.
All are bought on the basis of both fundamental and technical considerations, and those same considerations are put into play when removing a stock from the portfolio.
So for whatever it is worth, with all the usual cautions, disclaimers and limitations of warranties, express or implied, and without further ado-booyah, my sixteen candles:
AAPL
AMAG
ANAD
FNSR
FRG
GOOG
ISIS
LNOP
LNUX
PNP
PSEM
ROY
SIGM
SIMG
SRVY
ZOLT
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Cramer's Report Card
I haven't beat up on ole Jim Cramer for awhile, so let's take a quick look-see at his year-to-date progress in his public portfolio. Remember from past pieces, I like to look at what he does, not what he says, to evaluate his worth as a stock picker. His public (for subscription) Action Alerts PLUS portfolio is the closest he comes to a real time track record to gauge his stock picking abilities, or lack thereof.
Year to date, the S&P 500 index is up about 12% and the Russell 2000 index is up a little over 16%. For the same period, Jim Cramer's Action Alerts Plus portfolio is up 3.89%.
That means that the charities that Cramer donates his profits from the portfolio to would have had about an additional $250,000 if Jim had put the portfolio in an S&P index fund at the beginning of the year, or about an additional $360,000 if he had put the money into a Russell 2000 index fund.
So let's give Jimbo a grade for his performance. He didn't lose money in bull market, so we really can't fail him. But he couldn't beat the most mundane of all indexes, the S&P 500, so we can't give him much of a grade above "C". That's leaves a "C" or a "D". Normally, class participation counts, and with Cramer all over the TV and radio, he certainly is in our face enough with his stock opinions to make a case for extra credit for effort.
But, there's the rub. The first rule of medicine and the first rule of investing are the same, First, do no harm. One who bellows his opinions in such a ubiquitous persona owes a duty to the public to first, do no harm. It's one thing to short change a charitable trust by poor performance, quite another to lure an unsuspecting public into a false sense of competency.
Cramer get's a "D", passing, but barely so, Mr. Harvard Hedge Fund Honcho.
A
Year to date, the S&P 500 index is up about 12% and the Russell 2000 index is up a little over 16%. For the same period, Jim Cramer's Action Alerts Plus portfolio is up 3.89%.
That means that the charities that Cramer donates his profits from the portfolio to would have had about an additional $250,000 if Jim had put the portfolio in an S&P index fund at the beginning of the year, or about an additional $360,000 if he had put the money into a Russell 2000 index fund.
So let's give Jimbo a grade for his performance. He didn't lose money in bull market, so we really can't fail him. But he couldn't beat the most mundane of all indexes, the S&P 500, so we can't give him much of a grade above "C". That's leaves a "C" or a "D". Normally, class participation counts, and with Cramer all over the TV and radio, he certainly is in our face enough with his stock opinions to make a case for extra credit for effort.
But, there's the rub. The first rule of medicine and the first rule of investing are the same, First, do no harm. One who bellows his opinions in such a ubiquitous persona owes a duty to the public to first, do no harm. It's one thing to short change a charitable trust by poor performance, quite another to lure an unsuspecting public into a false sense of competency.
Cramer get's a "D", passing, but barely so, Mr. Harvard Hedge Fund Honcho.
A
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Two New Ideas
APNS
Applied NeuroSolutions - A very small cap biotechnology company which today announced a deal with Lilly to develop therapeutics to treat Alzheimer's. This $38MM company is trading on the Bulletin Board for about 40 cents. This is a pretty nice deal for such a small company and may provide a speculative opportunity not unlike NNVC at 10 cents a share.
ROY
International Royalty Corporation is a diversified mine royalty company with royalty interests in nickel, copper, zinc, gold, diamonds, coal and uranium. Royalty companies are generally less risky then operating companies, so you get exposure to the sector without a lot of the risk. IRC's profit margins are among the highest in the industry, but that is not yet reflected in the multiples of future earnings inherent in the stock's price. According to J. Taylor who follows ROY, the company's stock price, if comparable to other royalty companies, should be 2X to 3X it's current price. This is both an inflation play, a precious and industrial metals play, an uranium play and a value play.
I have positions in both these ideas.
A
Applied NeuroSolutions - A very small cap biotechnology company which today announced a deal with Lilly to develop therapeutics to treat Alzheimer's. This $38MM company is trading on the Bulletin Board for about 40 cents. This is a pretty nice deal for such a small company and may provide a speculative opportunity not unlike NNVC at 10 cents a share.
ROY
International Royalty Corporation is a diversified mine royalty company with royalty interests in nickel, copper, zinc, gold, diamonds, coal and uranium. Royalty companies are generally less risky then operating companies, so you get exposure to the sector without a lot of the risk. IRC's profit margins are among the highest in the industry, but that is not yet reflected in the multiples of future earnings inherent in the stock's price. According to J. Taylor who follows ROY, the company's stock price, if comparable to other royalty companies, should be 2X to 3X it's current price. This is both an inflation play, a precious and industrial metals play, an uranium play and a value play.
I have positions in both these ideas.
A
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
Three Quick Picks
(1) LNOP is busting out, +10% this morning; too late? See Quick Pick #3.
(2) URRE is a Bulletin Board Uranium stock; the COO bought 50,000 shares on the open market a week ago......Heads Up.
(3) David Gordon has an excellent Blog today on Entelechy (the realization of potential): "And that is the secret. Focus your attention on the investment opportunities, not the general markets." Read it!
A
(2) URRE is a Bulletin Board Uranium stock; the COO bought 50,000 shares on the open market a week ago......Heads Up.
(3) David Gordon has an excellent Blog today on Entelechy (the realization of potential): "And that is the secret. Focus your attention on the investment opportunities, not the general markets." Read it!
A
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)