What, you thought I was kidding? Here it is, open book, sixty-minutes "honor code" time limit:
1. Give an example of how Daytrading can make you money in the stock market.
2. Give an example of how a Bird Flu Basket can make you money in the stock market.
3. Give an example of how Insider Buying can make you money in the stock market.
4. Give an example of how Bullies with Guns can make you money in the stock market.
5. Give an example of how The Deiphosophist can make you money in the stock market.
Extra Credit:
Identify the single best stock to buy on Monday's open and explain your reasons including any relevent calculations, equations and/or links.
Go.
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Sunday, November 13, 2005
Friday, November 11, 2005
Putting It All Together
Here is a sumamry of topics we have covered this semester. It is from this list that I will be creating your mid-term exam. I suggest you review these topics and associated blogs. Remember, it's your understanding of the course material that I am most interested in, not your memorization of my lectures.
!. Elements of Daytrading
2. Bird Flu Basket
3. Insider Buying
4. Bullies with Guns
5. The Deipnosophist
A
!. Elements of Daytrading
2. Bird Flu Basket
3. Insider Buying
4. Bullies with Guns
5. The Deipnosophist
A
Wednesday, November 09, 2005
Nanoviricides
Lest I be accused of only posting about NNVC when it's up 20%, here's my contribution when its down 20%. By the way, this decline is a buying opportunity and I have a bid in slightly under current prices to add to my position. I may move it up before the close, depending on, well, just depending.
The article below was posted today on Silicon Investor and provides a little background on just what we have in this stock and company.
A
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Indian scientist Dr Anil R Diwan develops bird flu drug
NN Sachitanand
Wednesday, November 09, 2005 21:32 IST
A novel medication called a nanoviricide, being developed by Westhaven, Connecticut-based NanoViricides, Inc, is likely to prove much more efficacious in treating patients infected by the deadly Avian flu than current favourites like oseltamivir (TamiFlu) of Roche and zanamivir (Relenza) of GlaxoSmithKline.
The key intellectual property on which the new drug is based is a flexible nanomaterial that contains an encapsulated active pharmaceutical ingredient and, using a ligand , targets it to a specific type of virus.
There is an Indian connection to this. The inventor of this nanomaterial is Dr Anil R Diwan a B.Tech from IIT, Bombay and PhD from Rice University, USA. He holds a US patent on his older polymeric micelle technologies, with his colleagues at University of Massachusetts. He continued to work further in the field, to develop nanomaterials that are capable of multi-specific multi-targeting of viruses, and at the same time capable of encapsulating active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) in industry-leading payload capacities. This new work has resulted in nanomaterials called “TheraCour” (therapeutic courier).
NanoViricides, Inc., where Dr Diwan is the President, has a full license to TheraCour technologies for developing nanotechnology-based targeted anti-viral therapeutics. The company went public earlier this year when it was acquired by Miami-based EDot.com, Inc. In an e-mail interview, Dr Diwan pointed out that the existing drugs for treating Avian flu are not efficient because they do not work for all of the patient population, but only in a fraction of patients, they lead to a multiplicity of resistant strains in anywhere from 1% to 10% of patients or more, and with influenza, reassortment is an additional scary possibility when poorly efficacious drugs are used.
Diwan believes that FluCide will be far more effective than TamiFlu, for both prophylaxis and treatment due to its comprehensive destruction of the virus particle and being safely metabolised in the body after accomplishing the job.
Immunotherapies like vaccines require the body’s immune system to be in a very good state and require the body’s immune system cells to participate in clearing up the infection. The antibodies only ‘tag’ the virus to identify it to the defence system. FluCide does not require the body’s immune system to participate at all. It is expected to work via multiple concerted mechanisms. It first binds to the virus particle like a Velcro tape, rather than through a single point attachment like other influenza drugs. This causes FluCide to completely envelop and engulf the virus particle, so that it can no longer infect a cell.
http://dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=9108
The article below was posted today on Silicon Investor and provides a little background on just what we have in this stock and company.
A
-----------------------------------------------------
Indian scientist Dr Anil R Diwan develops bird flu drug
NN Sachitanand
Wednesday, November 09, 2005 21:32 IST
A novel medication called a nanoviricide, being developed by Westhaven, Connecticut-based NanoViricides, Inc, is likely to prove much more efficacious in treating patients infected by the deadly Avian flu than current favourites like oseltamivir (TamiFlu) of Roche and zanamivir (Relenza) of GlaxoSmithKline.
The key intellectual property on which the new drug is based is a flexible nanomaterial that contains an encapsulated active pharmaceutical ingredient and, using a ligand , targets it to a specific type of virus.
There is an Indian connection to this. The inventor of this nanomaterial is Dr Anil R Diwan a B.Tech from IIT, Bombay and PhD from Rice University, USA. He holds a US patent on his older polymeric micelle technologies, with his colleagues at University of Massachusetts. He continued to work further in the field, to develop nanomaterials that are capable of multi-specific multi-targeting of viruses, and at the same time capable of encapsulating active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) in industry-leading payload capacities. This new work has resulted in nanomaterials called “TheraCour” (therapeutic courier).
NanoViricides, Inc., where Dr Diwan is the President, has a full license to TheraCour technologies for developing nanotechnology-based targeted anti-viral therapeutics. The company went public earlier this year when it was acquired by Miami-based EDot.com, Inc. In an e-mail interview, Dr Diwan pointed out that the existing drugs for treating Avian flu are not efficient because they do not work for all of the patient population, but only in a fraction of patients, they lead to a multiplicity of resistant strains in anywhere from 1% to 10% of patients or more, and with influenza, reassortment is an additional scary possibility when poorly efficacious drugs are used.
Diwan believes that FluCide will be far more effective than TamiFlu, for both prophylaxis and treatment due to its comprehensive destruction of the virus particle and being safely metabolised in the body after accomplishing the job.
Immunotherapies like vaccines require the body’s immune system to be in a very good state and require the body’s immune system cells to participate in clearing up the infection. The antibodies only ‘tag’ the virus to identify it to the defence system. FluCide does not require the body’s immune system to participate at all. It is expected to work via multiple concerted mechanisms. It first binds to the virus particle like a Velcro tape, rather than through a single point attachment like other influenza drugs. This causes FluCide to completely envelop and engulf the virus particle, so that it can no longer infect a cell.
http://dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=9108
Tuesday, November 08, 2005
Truth in Advertising
Jim Cramer is all over the place lately, TV, Radio, RealMoney Blogs, CNBC specials and apparently yet another book. One would think he adds something to the quest for the holy grail of stock trading and/or investing. His legion of followers seem to either love him or hate him. Why the disparity of opinion? Rank ignorance. Let's fix it right here, right now.
Cramer runs a trading service called Action Alerts PLUS. Lets use this service to evaluate Cramer, since the only true objective test of his expertise is his actual documented performance.
Year-to date, the S&P 500 index is up 0.50%. Against that benchmark, Cramer's YTD return is up 4.38%.
Let's look at this two ways. One, Cramer is beating the market averages by about 9 fold. (9 X .50 = 4.5%) The other way, the way I look at it, is that for all his bluster, the guy is barely beating out a 5-year bank CD.
'Nuff said.
A
Cramer runs a trading service called Action Alerts PLUS. Lets use this service to evaluate Cramer, since the only true objective test of his expertise is his actual documented performance.
Year-to date, the S&P 500 index is up 0.50%. Against that benchmark, Cramer's YTD return is up 4.38%.
Let's look at this two ways. One, Cramer is beating the market averages by about 9 fold. (9 X .50 = 4.5%) The other way, the way I look at it, is that for all his bluster, the guy is barely beating out a 5-year bank CD.
'Nuff said.
A
Saturday, November 05, 2005
Short-Term Stock Trading Ideas
Based on my private e-mail, there is a lot interest in successful stock trading. I can tell you until the cows come home about insider buying, but nothing I say is going to ring as true as the numbers I am about to provide below. These are all trades generated last week on insider-buying and nothing else. All entry prices are based on the close of the day the trade was published to the public on the SEC web site. They were highlighted by one of my favored services, Insider Cow ($25/mo). No one has to day-trade nor give up a day job to have taken these trades.
Date.....Stock.....Entry.....Current.....Return
10/31....SYK.......41.07.....43.07..........4.8%
10/31....QSC........0.71......1.02.........43.6%
10/31....NXTY......12.84.....13.54..........5.4%
10/31....EUBK......10.42.....11.94.........14.6%
The average return last week for these four trades was 17.1%. That's not to say you could exactly duplicate these trades, although I see no reason why not. Nor is it to say that you will always get these kinds of returns, although after a year of insider-trading I am convinced that it is one of the easiest and most consistently profitable short term trading methodologies I have ever come across.
A
Date.....Stock.....Entry.....Current.....Return
10/31....SYK.......41.07.....43.07..........4.8%
10/31....QSC........0.71......1.02.........43.6%
10/31....NXTY......12.84.....13.54..........5.4%
10/31....EUBK......10.42.....11.94.........14.6%
The average return last week for these four trades was 17.1%. That's not to say you could exactly duplicate these trades, although I see no reason why not. Nor is it to say that you will always get these kinds of returns, although after a year of insider-trading I am convinced that it is one of the easiest and most consistently profitable short term trading methodologies I have ever come across.
A
Friday, November 04, 2005
Our First 10 Bagger!
NNVC has hit 99 cents this morning, making it our first 10 bagger since introduced in this post at the end of August:
NNVC
What to do now?
Anything you want. But I'm holding my core position for a lot more then 99 cents. Taking your origanal stake off the table is not a bad idea, but I do believe we are closer to the beginning of the run then the end.
A
NNVC
What to do now?
Anything you want. But I'm holding my core position for a lot more then 99 cents. Taking your origanal stake off the table is not a bad idea, but I do believe we are closer to the beginning of the run then the end.
A
Wednesday, November 02, 2005
Discovery Laboratories Inc. (DSCO)
A few days ago my trading partner Ilene suggested that we add Discovery Laboratories (DSCO) to the Avian Flu Basket.
Ilene's analysis was based on her reasoning that DSCO might be serendipidously involved in the development of a drug, Surfaxin, that could be used in the treatment of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome("ARDS"), a condition, often fatal, that may be caused by bird flu. If it is found that Surfaxin is effective in ARDS, then it should similarly be useful to treat avian flu. DSCO is currently engaged in a clinical trial using Surfaxin for ARDS (caused by other insults to the lung besides avian flu infection).
We posted our thoughts on Silicon Investor and on the Yahoo message board for DSCO, looking for some feedback from others who follow the company. Our efforts have paid off, as based on what we have uncovered in the past few days, we are adding DSCO to our Avian Flu Basket.
Here is a link to Ilene's original post on Yahoo and a series of outstanding responses from some very informed individuals, the final three of which simply hit the ball out of the park on this one:
DSCO & Bird Flu
This brings to ten the number of stocks on our Avian Flu Basket.
A
Ilene's analysis was based on her reasoning that DSCO might be serendipidously involved in the development of a drug, Surfaxin, that could be used in the treatment of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome("ARDS"), a condition, often fatal, that may be caused by bird flu. If it is found that Surfaxin is effective in ARDS, then it should similarly be useful to treat avian flu. DSCO is currently engaged in a clinical trial using Surfaxin for ARDS (caused by other insults to the lung besides avian flu infection).
We posted our thoughts on Silicon Investor and on the Yahoo message board for DSCO, looking for some feedback from others who follow the company. Our efforts have paid off, as based on what we have uncovered in the past few days, we are adding DSCO to our Avian Flu Basket.
Here is a link to Ilene's original post on Yahoo and a series of outstanding responses from some very informed individuals, the final three of which simply hit the ball out of the park on this one:
DSCO & Bird Flu
This brings to ten the number of stocks on our Avian Flu Basket.
A
Tuesday, November 01, 2005
NNVC
NNVC has begun preclinical studies on one if it's products, Flucide-I, an anti-viral. This was expected, nonetheless, is big news. I added to my NNVC position yesterday at 55 cents.
NanoViricides Has Begun Preclinical Studies For Their First Anti-Viral Drug Targeted Against Bird Flu
Monday October 31, 8:00 am ET
Studies Are Being Conducted at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, a Teaching Hospital of Harvard Medical School
WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 31, 2005--NanoViricides, Inc. (Pink Sheets:NNVC - News), today announced that it has commenced preclinical studies for its anti-viral drug FluCide-I(TM). The studies are being conducted at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, a teaching hospital of Harvard Medical School, under the direction of Dr. Krishna Menon. Dr. Menon, the Company's Chief Regulatory Officer, explained that nanoviricides are complex materials. "We have started working on the basic safety of the polymer under a maximum tolerated dose protocol in mice. In the second part we will study the ligands that target FluCide-I(TM) to H5N1 and common influenza viruses. Thereafter, we will study the efficacy of FluCide-I(TM) itself against H5N1 and common influenza."
Dr. Anil Diwan, President, explained that, "if successful, the relevance of nanoviricides can be compared to the discovery of Penicillin, the very first bactericide. Prior to antibiotics, bacterial infections were treated with patient isolation, chicken soup and Vitamin C. Current anti-viral medicines can at best only partially inhibit the virus from multiplying in the human body. Although we cannot make claims of certainty yet, after we get good results from these studies we will be able to say that we have developed a true virus killer."
The Company is encouraged by the recent statements from high level international officials and health ministers of different countries concerning the urgency of developing effective vaccines and treatments and believes that a rapid regulatory approval of FluCide-I(TM), is possible should these studies be successful.
http://www.nanoviricides.com
NanoViricides Has Begun Preclinical Studies For Their First Anti-Viral Drug Targeted Against Bird Flu
Monday October 31, 8:00 am ET
Studies Are Being Conducted at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, a Teaching Hospital of Harvard Medical School
WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 31, 2005--NanoViricides, Inc. (Pink Sheets:NNVC - News), today announced that it has commenced preclinical studies for its anti-viral drug FluCide-I(TM). The studies are being conducted at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, a teaching hospital of Harvard Medical School, under the direction of Dr. Krishna Menon. Dr. Menon, the Company's Chief Regulatory Officer, explained that nanoviricides are complex materials. "We have started working on the basic safety of the polymer under a maximum tolerated dose protocol in mice. In the second part we will study the ligands that target FluCide-I(TM) to H5N1 and common influenza viruses. Thereafter, we will study the efficacy of FluCide-I(TM) itself against H5N1 and common influenza."
Dr. Anil Diwan, President, explained that, "if successful, the relevance of nanoviricides can be compared to the discovery of Penicillin, the very first bactericide. Prior to antibiotics, bacterial infections were treated with patient isolation, chicken soup and Vitamin C. Current anti-viral medicines can at best only partially inhibit the virus from multiplying in the human body. Although we cannot make claims of certainty yet, after we get good results from these studies we will be able to say that we have developed a true virus killer."
The Company is encouraged by the recent statements from high level international officials and health ministers of different countries concerning the urgency of developing effective vaccines and treatments and believes that a rapid regulatory approval of FluCide-I(TM), is possible should these studies be successful.
http://www.nanoviricides.com
Wednesday, October 26, 2005
Flu Stocks - Update
AVII....Bought 2.25....Current 3.60.......+60%
BCRX....Bought 8.69....Current 15.22......+75%
CRXL....Bought 24.13...Current 26.67......+11%
DVAX....Bought 6.00....Current 6.30........+5%
HEB.....Bought 2.02....Current 3.30.......+63%
NNVC....Bought 0.09....Current 0.50......+450%
NVAX....Bought 1.49....Current 4.95......+232%
SVA.....Bought 4.05....Current 6.25.......+54%
VICL....Bought 6.00....Current 5.25.......-13%
Average per equally weighted portfolio = +104%
What do we do now? These are all stocks that I have picked along the way as longer term trades (aka Buy & Hold) in biotechnology stocks participating in the avian flu sector. Some of the winners here may have been lucky guesses, but I did put some thought, research and analysis into each pick. Whether that was a good idea or not has yet to be determined, but, so far, so good.
Are these as a group, or individually, still good buys? I just don't know. I am maintaining a core position in each listed stock and have been adding trading positions from day to day. What seems to be working is to buy a trading position after a bad day or two and sell after a good day or two, while leaving the core position untouched.
Since the avian flu story seems to be closer to the beginning then the end, I would guess that all of these are closer to Buys then to Sells.
A
BCRX....Bought 8.69....Current 15.22......+75%
CRXL....Bought 24.13...Current 26.67......+11%
DVAX....Bought 6.00....Current 6.30........+5%
HEB.....Bought 2.02....Current 3.30.......+63%
NNVC....Bought 0.09....Current 0.50......+450%
NVAX....Bought 1.49....Current 4.95......+232%
SVA.....Bought 4.05....Current 6.25.......+54%
VICL....Bought 6.00....Current 5.25.......-13%
Average per equally weighted portfolio = +104%
What do we do now? These are all stocks that I have picked along the way as longer term trades (aka Buy & Hold) in biotechnology stocks participating in the avian flu sector. Some of the winners here may have been lucky guesses, but I did put some thought, research and analysis into each pick. Whether that was a good idea or not has yet to be determined, but, so far, so good.
Are these as a group, or individually, still good buys? I just don't know. I am maintaining a core position in each listed stock and have been adding trading positions from day to day. What seems to be working is to buy a trading position after a bad day or two and sell after a good day or two, while leaving the core position untouched.
Since the avian flu story seems to be closer to the beginning then the end, I would guess that all of these are closer to Buys then to Sells.
A
Tuesday, October 25, 2005
Dynavax
Adding DVAX to the bird flu basket. From their website:
Human Viral Influenza
Human viral influenza is an acute respiratory disease of global dimension with high morbidity and mortality in annual epidemics. In the U.S. there are an estimated 20,000 viral influenza-associated deaths per year. Pandemics occur infrequently, on average every 33 years, with high rates of infection resulting in increased mortality. The last pandemic occurred 35 years ago, and virologists anticipate that a new pandemic strain could emerge any time.
Current flu vaccines are directed against specific surface-antigen proteins. These proteins vary significantly each year, requiring the vaccine to be reconfigured and administered annually. Our approach links advanced ISS to nucleoprotein, one of the flu antigens that varies little from year to year, and then adds it to conventional vaccine to augment its activity. While nucleoprotein alone is not capable of inducing a protective immune response, we believe that linked ISS-nucleoprotein added to conventional vaccine will not only increase antibody responses capable of blocking viral infections, but also confer protective immunity against divergent influenza strains. In the third quarter of 2003 we were awarded a $3.0 million grant over three and a half years to fund research and development of an advanced pandemic influenza vaccine under an NIAID program for biodefense administered by the National Institutes of Health.
A
Human Viral Influenza
Human viral influenza is an acute respiratory disease of global dimension with high morbidity and mortality in annual epidemics. In the U.S. there are an estimated 20,000 viral influenza-associated deaths per year. Pandemics occur infrequently, on average every 33 years, with high rates of infection resulting in increased mortality. The last pandemic occurred 35 years ago, and virologists anticipate that a new pandemic strain could emerge any time.
Current flu vaccines are directed against specific surface-antigen proteins. These proteins vary significantly each year, requiring the vaccine to be reconfigured and administered annually. Our approach links advanced ISS to nucleoprotein, one of the flu antigens that varies little from year to year, and then adds it to conventional vaccine to augment its activity. While nucleoprotein alone is not capable of inducing a protective immune response, we believe that linked ISS-nucleoprotein added to conventional vaccine will not only increase antibody responses capable of blocking viral infections, but also confer protective immunity against divergent influenza strains. In the third quarter of 2003 we were awarded a $3.0 million grant over three and a half years to fund research and development of an advanced pandemic influenza vaccine under an NIAID program for biodefense administered by the National Institutes of Health.
A
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