I just finished reading through the latest SEC filings for Jim Cramer's company, The Street.com (TSCM). In the spirit of, Those that can, do, Those that can't, teach, take a look at these numbers:
Year-to-Date Cramer's Action Alert Plus portfolio, his real time, real money, can't cheat (much) portfolio is up about $250K on a $3MM base, about 8%; he passes these profits on to charity.
For the nine months ending September 30, 2007, TSCM's subscription revenues were in excess of $15MM! Annually, that comes to about $20MM in subscriptions and unlike the trading profits, none of that goes to charity.
Trading Gains = $250,000
Subscriptions = $20,000,000
Happy New Year.
A
Monday, December 31, 2007
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Interview Take-Away
After reading the Comments and a spate of private e-mails coming off of my appearance Traderinterviews I wanted to make one very important point, the single most important "take-away" from the interview.
To me, trading is a series of mostly successful trades that when added together, daily, weekly, monthly, annually, results in a six or seven figure income. A trading "system" that accomplishes this is what we are all after here. After four years of real time, real money trading, I am convinced that I have attained this result.
A guy like Cramer, who buys Google at 450 because he thinks its worth 650 based on earnings momentum, or sales, or chart patterns, or whatever, is just a gambler making a series of coin-tosses and hoping, albeit praying, he wins more often then he loses. This is not trading, this is not a trading system, this isn't even investing.
Let me illustrate what I mean. For the entire calendar year of 2007, Cramer's Action Alerts portfolio, his "charitable trust" as he calls it, is up 8.68%. This compares to an S&P 500 which is also up for the year, 4.26%.
On the other hand, consider a day-trading system that grabs 1% for every winning trade, trades five times a day and wins 4 out of 5 trades. If you do the math assuming no pyramiding and allocating the same amount for each trade, this trading system averages 0.6% per day, or about 12% per month which is 144% per year.
Throw in conservative pyramiding of profits and tighter stops then 1%, and that 144% a year is about a quarter of what is realistic.
Compare Cramer's real life, no-lying-cheating-nor-stealing returns to 144% a year, or four times 144% a year.
Cramer says, "Listen to me and lets get rich."
The Anti-Cramer says, "Find something that works and trade it."
A
To me, trading is a series of mostly successful trades that when added together, daily, weekly, monthly, annually, results in a six or seven figure income. A trading "system" that accomplishes this is what we are all after here. After four years of real time, real money trading, I am convinced that I have attained this result.
A guy like Cramer, who buys Google at 450 because he thinks its worth 650 based on earnings momentum, or sales, or chart patterns, or whatever, is just a gambler making a series of coin-tosses and hoping, albeit praying, he wins more often then he loses. This is not trading, this is not a trading system, this isn't even investing.
Let me illustrate what I mean. For the entire calendar year of 2007, Cramer's Action Alerts portfolio, his "charitable trust" as he calls it, is up 8.68%. This compares to an S&P 500 which is also up for the year, 4.26%.
On the other hand, consider a day-trading system that grabs 1% for every winning trade, trades five times a day and wins 4 out of 5 trades. If you do the math assuming no pyramiding and allocating the same amount for each trade, this trading system averages 0.6% per day, or about 12% per month which is 144% per year.
Throw in conservative pyramiding of profits and tighter stops then 1%, and that 144% a year is about a quarter of what is realistic.
Compare Cramer's real life, no-lying-cheating-nor-stealing returns to 144% a year, or four times 144% a year.
Cramer says, "Listen to me and lets get rich."
The Anti-Cramer says, "Find something that works and trade it."
A
We Are The World
Just got back from ten days on the East Coast and I have an air travel observation that ties into our stock picking ideas.
Going through airport security they ask you to put personal items from your pockets and place them in those grey bins. They also now ask everyone to remove their shoes and those too go into the grey bins.
Annoying, but harmless?
The men's restrooms at airports share many things in common. One of the grossest is the pool of urine that seems to build underneath each urinal. So standing there, walking to the sinks, leaving the restroom, a trail of urine contributed by an international cast of characters coheres to the bottoms of everyone's shoes. That stew of soles then makes its way to those grey bins that we are asked to place our cell phones, wallets, loose change and shoes.
By the time the bin is x-rayed and comes off the conveyor belt to our anxiously waiting hands, wedding bells have rung and a co-mingling of molecules has been consummated. Yes, we and our collective excrement are the world, literally, figuratively and now biologically as well.
This Blog has always been enamored with small cap biotechnology. There are several in the archives that sport triple digit gains since first mentioned. I know some have not done well, down 50% or more. But the even at 40 cents, NNVC is up 300% from where it was first mentioned here. It was up 3,650% six months later.
i.e. limited downside, unlimited upside
There are more with NNVC potential (NNVC still being one of them) out there. You will probably read about them here first. Meanwhile, remember the observation about those grey bins and think twice about what you place in them, or more importantly, what you pick up out of them
A
Going through airport security they ask you to put personal items from your pockets and place them in those grey bins. They also now ask everyone to remove their shoes and those too go into the grey bins.
Annoying, but harmless?
The men's restrooms at airports share many things in common. One of the grossest is the pool of urine that seems to build underneath each urinal. So standing there, walking to the sinks, leaving the restroom, a trail of urine contributed by an international cast of characters coheres to the bottoms of everyone's shoes. That stew of soles then makes its way to those grey bins that we are asked to place our cell phones, wallets, loose change and shoes.
By the time the bin is x-rayed and comes off the conveyor belt to our anxiously waiting hands, wedding bells have rung and a co-mingling of molecules has been consummated. Yes, we and our collective excrement are the world, literally, figuratively and now biologically as well.
This Blog has always been enamored with small cap biotechnology. There are several in the archives that sport triple digit gains since first mentioned. I know some have not done well, down 50% or more. But the even at 40 cents, NNVC is up 300% from where it was first mentioned here. It was up 3,650% six months later.
i.e. limited downside, unlimited upside
There are more with NNVC potential (NNVC still being one of them) out there. You will probably read about them here first. Meanwhile, remember the observation about those grey bins and think twice about what you place in them, or more importantly, what you pick up out of them
A
Thursday, December 27, 2007
The Anti-Cramer Interview
My interview is finally up at Traderinterviews.com. From the site's description:
As most of you know by now, Insider-Buys are only one small part of my trading, but as I explain in the interview, they are a good example of a causal connection that results in a tradable pop in the underlying security. A handful of tradable pops a day keeps the suits and ties in the closet while we make a living in the great casino that is Wall Street. Books? TV Shows? Charitable Trusts? Phony Bravado?
"We don't need no stinkin' badges."
A
Allan Harris came up with his current trading system while on a family road trip across the country. His nearly hands-off system looks at insider buying and capitalizes on moves the stock makes when the news of the transactions is released to the public. Originally a lawyer, he decided he'd had enough of the profession and decided to be a full-time trader. He blogs about his trading at: AllAllan.blogspot.com. A fascinating look into one successful trader's tactics.
As most of you know by now, Insider-Buys are only one small part of my trading, but as I explain in the interview, they are a good example of a causal connection that results in a tradable pop in the underlying security. A handful of tradable pops a day keeps the suits and ties in the closet while we make a living in the great casino that is Wall Street. Books? TV Shows? Charitable Trusts? Phony Bravado?
"We don't need no stinkin' badges."
A
Monday, December 24, 2007
The Anti-Cramer
On Thursday my interview with Traderinterviews.com will be posted. I'll update everyone with a link.
For a hint of how it went, click here.
A
PS: NTRZ $1.40 and I'm holding every single share I own.
For a hint of how it went, click here.
A
PS: NTRZ $1.40 and I'm holding every single share I own.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
NTRZ update
NTRZ printed $1.22 today, up 60% from our entries in about one week.
You know by now that I don't usually deal with exits, or targets, or when and if trades should be held. But I will remind everyone that the target for NTRZ is 100% within one year. A new BI Research came out on Monday after the close and it's editor, Tom Bishop, made NTRZ his featured recommendation. Very unusual and very bullish for him to make his lead stock recommendation a reiteration of a former featured stock. I'm holding all my shares.
A
You know by now that I don't usually deal with exits, or targets, or when and if trades should be held. But I will remind everyone that the target for NTRZ is 100% within one year. A new BI Research came out on Monday after the close and it's editor, Tom Bishop, made NTRZ his featured recommendation. Very unusual and very bullish for him to make his lead stock recommendation a reiteration of a former featured stock. I'm holding all my shares.
A
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Interview
I will be interviewed by this site on Thursday at 3:00PM PT. I suspect that the interview will appear sometime thereafter on the site, for review at your convenience. They said I needed a landline phone. What is that, something from the eighties?
A
Day after day, alone on the hill,
The man with the foolish grin is keeping perfectly still.
But nobody wants to know him,
They can see that he's just a fool.
And he never gives an answer .....
But the fool on the hill,
Sees the sun going down.
And the eyes in his head,
See the world spinning around.
A
Day after day, alone on the hill,
The man with the foolish grin is keeping perfectly still.
But nobody wants to know him,
They can see that he's just a fool.
And he never gives an answer .....
But the fool on the hill,
Sees the sun going down.
And the eyes in his head,
See the world spinning around.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
NTRZ: Up 30% in 24 hours
I found these public domain comments from Tom Bishop, editor of BI Research. But with a 30% win in less then 24 hours, maybe some of you should consider sending him $95 for a one year subscription:
“Rice is the most consumed grain on the planet; it is a primary food source for 70% of the world’s population,” says small cap growth stock expert Tom Bishop. “Yet 65% of its nutritional value is in the bran covering that is routinely stripped off.
For those comfortable with the high risks inherent in a small cap speculation, the editor of BI Research reviews Nutrecea (NASDAQ: NTRZ), which offers a patent technology that preserves these nutrients.
“NutraCea had developed a patent protected technology that stabilizes rice bran into an FDA certified edible product, leaving the nutritional value of the bran intact and with a shelf life of 1 to 3 years.
“There is tremendous interest in this highly nutritional product, especially from humanitarian relief organizations, the nutraceutical industry and both human and animal food companies. NutraCea’s technology stabilizes the rice bran
“Over 150 projects are currently ongoing around the world, many in advanced stages, to utilize SRB in such products. The current customer roster has 187 customers, including the likes of General Mills, Pepperidge Farms, Con Agra, Archer Daniels Midland and Purina.
“To cut to the chase, NutraCea is facing demand that is expected to exceed its ability to supply it for years to come. It is currently crossing the threshold of profitability and expanding like crazy as it rides a wave of awareness regarding the value of stabilized rice bran for humanitarian aid and as an additive to breads, cereals, diet/nutrition supplements and animal food.
“One factor at play here is the rising cost of grain, corn in particular. Its price has been driven up substantially due to its use in making ethanol, prompting even more interest in substituting partially with something less expensive and even more nutritional.
“To some extent the company’s capacity has been holding it back from being able to pursue and attract some of the large opportunities out there. To address, the company announced a $50 million private equity financing at $2.50 (with half a warrant at $3.25).
“Nutracea is not balking at adding all this capacity; the company has raised $50 million and these funds will be used for further expansion that will come on line in 2008 and will include the construction of one or more plants in Europe. Meanwhile, NutraCea has no debt.
“Gross margin is expected to run at nearly 50%. There is a lot to like here. Oh, and Monsanto owns 5%. With a story like this and growth like that, plus a PE of 30 on 2007 EPS and 14 on 2008, we rate NTRZ a buy to $4.”
A
“Rice is the most consumed grain on the planet; it is a primary food source for 70% of the world’s population,” says small cap growth stock expert Tom Bishop. “Yet 65% of its nutritional value is in the bran covering that is routinely stripped off.
For those comfortable with the high risks inherent in a small cap speculation, the editor of BI Research reviews Nutrecea (NASDAQ: NTRZ), which offers a patent technology that preserves these nutrients.
“NutraCea had developed a patent protected technology that stabilizes rice bran into an FDA certified edible product, leaving the nutritional value of the bran intact and with a shelf life of 1 to 3 years.
“There is tremendous interest in this highly nutritional product, especially from humanitarian relief organizations, the nutraceutical industry and both human and animal food companies. NutraCea’s technology stabilizes the rice bran
“Over 150 projects are currently ongoing around the world, many in advanced stages, to utilize SRB in such products. The current customer roster has 187 customers, including the likes of General Mills, Pepperidge Farms, Con Agra, Archer Daniels Midland and Purina.
“To cut to the chase, NutraCea is facing demand that is expected to exceed its ability to supply it for years to come. It is currently crossing the threshold of profitability and expanding like crazy as it rides a wave of awareness regarding the value of stabilized rice bran for humanitarian aid and as an additive to breads, cereals, diet/nutrition supplements and animal food.
“One factor at play here is the rising cost of grain, corn in particular. Its price has been driven up substantially due to its use in making ethanol, prompting even more interest in substituting partially with something less expensive and even more nutritional.
“To some extent the company’s capacity has been holding it back from being able to pursue and attract some of the large opportunities out there. To address, the company announced a $50 million private equity financing at $2.50 (with half a warrant at $3.25).
“Nutracea is not balking at adding all this capacity; the company has raised $50 million and these funds will be used for further expansion that will come on line in 2008 and will include the construction of one or more plants in Europe. Meanwhile, NutraCea has no debt.
“Gross margin is expected to run at nearly 50%. There is a lot to like here. Oh, and Monsanto owns 5%. With a story like this and growth like that, plus a PE of 30 on 2007 EPS and 14 on 2008, we rate NTRZ a buy to $4.”
A
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
NTRZ
Last year, BI Research, one of my very best and longest standing sources of stock ideas, named Taseko Mines (TGB) as it's "Favorite Stock for 2007. " TGB is up over 100% in 2007.
For it's favorite stock for 2008, it has named NutraCea (NTRZ), which has recently fallen from well over $4 a share to about $0.75 as I am writing this.
An introductory one year subscription to BI Research is only $95.
Here is a partial list of BI Research past picks:
TGB +436%
MJDLF +155%
ZOLT +68%
VTIV +135%
LIFC +239%
There have been some picks that haven't fared so well and some that have lost money. But, Hulbert has consistently ranked BI Research as one of it's top rated newsletters.
As for NutraCea, you'll have to shell out the $95 to find out why it's this coming year's favorite.
Needless to say, I'm, "all in."
A
For it's favorite stock for 2008, it has named NutraCea (NTRZ), which has recently fallen from well over $4 a share to about $0.75 as I am writing this.
An introductory one year subscription to BI Research is only $95.
Here is a partial list of BI Research past picks:
TGB +436%
MJDLF +155%
ZOLT +68%
VTIV +135%
LIFC +239%
There have been some picks that haven't fared so well and some that have lost money. But, Hulbert has consistently ranked BI Research as one of it's top rated newsletters.
As for NutraCea, you'll have to shell out the $95 to find out why it's this coming year's favorite.
Needless to say, I'm, "all in."
A
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
On a more personal note
It's been awhile since I shared any secrets from my personal life. But it's 3:30am in the high desert of Arizona, and I am wide awake and thinking too much. One of my mentors growing up was Paul Simon. I'll let him bring us up to date with these beautiful words, that sums it all up.
A
A
Monday, December 10, 2007
MYE -gift
Another gift from MYE:
Myers says GS Capital seeks more time to complete acquisition
I personally already took profits on this late last week, but am back in it this morning after reading this and other reports on the deal. The gain to completion from current levels is now close to 50%.
A
Myers says GS Capital seeks more time to complete acquisition
I personally already took profits on this late last week, but am back in it this morning after reading this and other reports on the deal. The gain to completion from current levels is now close to 50%.
A
Friday, December 07, 2007
Two Gurus
According to his own records, Jim Cramer's portfolio (that he sells access to via "Action Alerts Plus" $400/year service) is up 42.98% since January 1, 2002. For the six years, he is averaging 7.14% per year. During that same time frame, the Nasdaq Index is up 32%, or an average of a little over 5% a year. The S&P 500 is likewise up about 5% a year for that period. So give the little round man credit for longer-term outperformance. But it is a far cry from his boasting, "I am not here to make friends, I am her to make you rich." At 7% a year, how long will it take Jim to booyah us all to being rich?
Which brings me to Jim Rogers. A few years ago he published, "Hot Commodities" where he suggested that the commodities markets were the place to be. Since then, you actually could have become rich investing in futures contracts underlying almost any commodity he recommended in that book. A few days ago, Rogers published, "A Bull in China," which I am currently reading. His thesis this time is that economic trends in China strongly suggest that Chinese stocks and stocks of other companies with a strong presence in China's development from third world to world leadership, will provide similar opportunities for huge investment gains.
So there you have it. Watch, read and listen to Jim Cramer and barely beat out the market averages or read and listen to Jim Rogers and make a killing in the next dynamic investment opportunity of our lifetimes.
A tale of two gurus.
A
Which brings me to Jim Rogers. A few years ago he published, "Hot Commodities" where he suggested that the commodities markets were the place to be. Since then, you actually could have become rich investing in futures contracts underlying almost any commodity he recommended in that book. A few days ago, Rogers published, "A Bull in China," which I am currently reading. His thesis this time is that economic trends in China strongly suggest that Chinese stocks and stocks of other companies with a strong presence in China's development from third world to world leadership, will provide similar opportunities for huge investment gains.
So there you have it. Watch, read and listen to Jim Cramer and barely beat out the market averages or read and listen to Jim Rogers and make a killing in the next dynamic investment opportunity of our lifetimes.
A tale of two gurus.
A
Thursday, December 06, 2007
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
MYE
MYE is above $21.00 today. I bought it and posted about it on Monday, when it could have been purchased under $20 most of the day:
A
MYE is being bought for $22.50 this month. You can buy it right now, as I type, for $19.89. You do the math. Here is a link, I'm not making this up:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071130/myers_industries_m_a.html?.v=1
A
CVAS
CVAS just got touted by a bear service, The Gargoyle Investor. This is the first time EVER that Gargoyle has issued a Buy recommendation. I'm in at $2.65.
A
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The Pay-Off
Today is pay-off day for the two dozen or so picks I have posted here in the past three days, especially yesterday's picks which were all based on my own, proprietary, short-term trading system. Based on the number of hits on my site, this kind work is drawing a lot of attention.
Stand-by, more picks coming.
A
Stand-by, more picks coming.
A
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Sunday, December 02, 2007
Major Buy Signal
Going very long here, actually started building long trading positions late last week, based on proprietary technical analysis. The beauty of this Buy signal is that if the market fails to confirm it in the next few days, it will flip to a Sell signal that has historically been very profitable. Either way, there is muchos de dinero to be made.
The obvious questions in your minds is what does one buy to take advantage of this expected upswing? Again, using proprietary technical analysis, the following symbols have or are on the verge of triggering important Buys:
AAPL, DSX, DIA, GOOG, QQQQ, SIGM, SMH, & SPY;
Here are some new symbols from an unnamed source that picks stocks are pure fundamentals and has one of the best track records in Hulbert going back 20 years:
DLB, FSTR, SIGM, SXE, TISI;
And finally, some of the lower priced, small cap picks that have been mentioned here should do well in any meaningful end-of-year rally. Among this group:
CYTR, VLNC, TGB;
These are not recommendations in the sense I think you should buy them now and will tell you when to get out, nor should you expect a blog if and when the buy signal fails and a sell signal is triggered. That information would normally appear in my premium service, except I don't have a premium service.
All I do have are a lot of good ideas, or at least, they seem like good ideas at the time.
Well, I'm running down the road
tryin' to loosen my load
I've got seven women on
my mind,
Four that wanna own me,
Two that wanna stone me,
One says she's a friend of mine.
A
The obvious questions in your minds is what does one buy to take advantage of this expected upswing? Again, using proprietary technical analysis, the following symbols have or are on the verge of triggering important Buys:
AAPL, DSX, DIA, GOOG, QQQQ, SIGM, SMH, & SPY;
Here are some new symbols from an unnamed source that picks stocks are pure fundamentals and has one of the best track records in Hulbert going back 20 years:
DLB, FSTR, SIGM, SXE, TISI;
And finally, some of the lower priced, small cap picks that have been mentioned here should do well in any meaningful end-of-year rally. Among this group:
CYTR, VLNC, TGB;
These are not recommendations in the sense I think you should buy them now and will tell you when to get out, nor should you expect a blog if and when the buy signal fails and a sell signal is triggered. That information would normally appear in my premium service, except I don't have a premium service.
All I do have are a lot of good ideas, or at least, they seem like good ideas at the time.
Well, I'm running down the road
tryin' to loosen my load
I've got seven women on
my mind,
Four that wanna own me,
Two that wanna stone me,
One says she's a friend of mine.
A
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