Monday, May 11, 2009

NNVC - News

NanoViricides, Inc. Announces New Herpes Keratitis Study


On Monday May 11, 2009, 7:00 am EDT

WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB) (the "Company"), announced today that it has signed a pre-clinical study agreement for the evaluation of NanoViricides’ drug candidate for herpes keratitis of the eye. The study will be conducted by Thevac, LLC, a spin-off of the Louisiana State University (LSU), Baton Rouge, LA. It will be performed in collaboration with the Division of Biotechnology and Molecular Medicine at the LSU School of Veterinary Medicine, which administers the LSU-Tulane Center for Experimental Infectious Disease Research (Director, K. G. Kousoulas, PhD).


Herpes keratitis (herpes virus infection of the cornea) is a serious, potentially blinding disease of the eye. It is the leading infectious cause of blindness in developed countries and the most common infectious corneal disease in the United States. It can often necessitate corneal transplantation. Herpes virus infections and adenoviral infections of the cornea together constitute most of the viral disease of the external eye. At present, there is no satisfactory treatment that works for both adenoviral and herpesvirus keratitis/conjunctivitis. The potential domestic market for a drug effective against all or most viral infections of the external eye is variously estimated to be from $500M to billions of dollars.


“We are very pleased to have a recognized expert like Dr. Kousoulas associated with this study,” said Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, Chief Executive Officer of NanoViricides, Inc., adding, “This will provide us with independent results for the nanoviricide™ drug candidates against viral diseases of the external eye. Separate studies are expected to begin shortly in collaboration with a pharmaceutical company.”

“The NanoViricides technology appears to be very promising for treating a variety of viral diseases including influenza,” says Dr. Kousoulas.

About THEVAC, LLC

THEVAC, LLC is a LSU spin-of company, which has been formed to produce valuable reagents and provide sophisticated services to industry in collaboration with LSU Baton Rouge.

About NanoViricides:

NanoViricides, Inc. (www.nanoviricides.com) is a development stage company that is creating special purpose nanomaterials for viral therapy. The Company's novel nanoviricide™ class of drug candidates are designed to specifically attack enveloped virus particles and to dismantle them. The Company is developing drugs against a number of viral diseases including H5N1 bird flu, seasonal Influenza, HIV, EKC, Hepatitis C, Rabies, Dengue fever, and Ebola virus, among others.

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Once upon a moon

I lived this song some time ago and moved on. 

But life evolves. It twists, turns, then befuddles in ways that are and always have been a dark, overwhelming mystery to me.

Maybe there's an answer at the end of this journey. An explanation for all the angst and pain, the tears that flow mercilessly from loss, then fall hollow upon quiet nights that pass emotionless; remnants dangling from love's demise.

There is no sense in sharing the details, just the coming of a sweet voice, long gone and forgotten, hauntingly beautiful and rhyming with these words, again.




See her as she flies
Golden sails across the sky
Close enough to touch
But careful if you try
Though she looks as warm as gold
The moon's a harsh mistress
The moon can be so cold

Once the sun did shine
And lord it felt so fine
The moon a phantom rose
Through the mountains and the pine
And then the darkness fell
The moon's a harsh mistress
It's hard to love her well

I fell out of her eyes
I fell out of her heart
I fell down on my face, yes I did
And I tripped and I missed my star
And I fell and fell alone
The moon's a harsh mistress
The sky is made of stone

The moon's a harsh mistress
She's hard to call your own



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Adventures in law

I seldom post news stories that are unrelated to trading, but this one is so outrageous, so important and so applicable to every one of us, it simply has to be posted.

A Texas man was jailed for 83 days for failure to appear for jury duty, six years ago. He was denied counsel, locked up and forgotten. This wasn't Mexico, or Nicaragua, or Russia, or Pakistan, or Tibet, this was Texas. He was released only after intervention of the Dallas Morning News who received a letter from him describing the ordeal, written from jail.

Jury duty is the penalty assessed for registering to vote and driving on the roads. Notwithstanding the 13th Amendment of our Constitution, it is indentured servitude. It wreaks havoc on individual lives, businesses and the way we view government. The vile, heavy handed policy of no exceptions, no excuses, no remedies at law make jury duty as practiced today all the more despotic and loathsome.

I read a story like this and I want to practice law again; so I can wreak havoc on deserving souls, like the ones responsible for the jailing described below. Now that I don't have to do it for income, maybe I should, just a kind of last hurrah in the scheme of my life and duty as an officer of the court and Colonel in the Georgia militia (admittance into the Georgia Bar automatically grants you the title of "Colonel" in the Georgia militia and the privilege/obligation to muster a regiment in the event of war).

As you read this story below, be mindful of the evasive behavior of all those responsible for this travesty of justice as they wiggle and deflect responsibility, circa post-World War II accomplices of the Holocaust.

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Texas man jailed 83 days for skipping jury duty

McKINNEY, Texas (AP) - A man arrested for allegedly failing to appear for jury duty was released Saturday after spending 83 days in jail, a length of detention that a judge called "unacceptable."

Douglas Maupin was released a day after The Dallas Morning News brought his plight to the attention of a Collin County judge.

Maupin, a masonry contractor, was arrested Feb. 15 after police pulled him over for speeding. Police then detained him on a 2003 warrant for failure to appear for jury duty.

He wrote a letter to the newspaper about his lengthy jail stay, then said in a jailhouse interview that he, his friends and family could not afford his $1,500 bail.

He said his attempt to get a public defender was rebuffed by a jail clerk.

District Judge Chris Oldner said he was unaware of Maupin's detention until Friday, even though the case was assigned to his court. The judge who signed the original 2003 warrant had retired, and officials said the case was assigned to the court of his replacement but the offense didn't fall under that court's responsibility.

"He should not have spent that much time. This is unacceptable," Oldner told the Morning News. "I don't know why the process failed to notify us."

Oldner also said that Maupin should have been allowed to apply for a public defender. Maupin, 34, said he just wanted his day in court.


"I do know I have the right to due process and a speedy trial," he said. "I've had neither. It's not right."

The judge said he was "disappointed this has happened," and promised to investigate.

More: His stay in jail cost the cash strapped county $5,785

Original Dallas Morning News Story:

Douglas Maupin was held at the Collin County Detention Facility for 83 days on a warrant for failure to appear for jury duty. During those days of legal purgatory, he said he was unable to hire a lawyer, post bail or even get a clear explanation of what type of charge he was being held on.

His case was finally handled Friday afternoon – a few hours after a judge heard from The Dallas Morning News about his situation.
More on Jury Duty (and Voodoo dolls)

Saturday, May 09, 2009

Type 1 mechanical sell signal

Today we are going to learn the parameters of a Type 1 mechanical sell signal by it's creator, Tom Joseph, who is also the creator of Advanced GET software. I am going to then apply to the current market via the Weekly SPX chart. As you will soon learn, the pairing of the above signal with the current chart is not coincidental, it is intentional and for what should be obvious reasons.

Type One Mechanical Sell Signal

"One of the simplest tools we developed for Advanced GET is the Elliott Oscillator. We discovered that this oscillator pulls back to the zero baseline at least 94 percent of the time during this profit-taking retracement. This is a great tool because it lets you stand aside until the profit-taking is over. When the Elliott Oscillator pulls back to zero, it provides a highly accurate area where you can predict that profit-taking is actually over, and the trend is ready to resume."


Remember, since October, 2007 the Weekly SPX chart has been in an impulsive wave down. Wave 3 ended in early March of 2009 and has been correcting, i.e. profit taking, ever since. The EW chart below shows the extent of Wave 3 down as well as the extent of the profit taking since then. As you can see, the Elliott Oscillator (think "MACD") has been working off the early March oversold conditions as the oscillator goes from an extreme reading in late 2008, gradually easing and is almost all the way back to the zero line:



Note that the extreme reading on the oscillator was at Wave 3 of 3, exactly where one would expect the extreme for the downward momentum of the index. Note also that as the index has moved sideways and up, working off the oversold conditions of early March, the oscillator has worked itself almost all the way back to neutral.

"In addition to this, we created the Profit-Taking Index (PTI), which is designed to be used with the Elliott Oscillator and measures the intensity of the profit-taking. The PTI calculates the magnitude of the profit-taking compared to the previous Wave 3 rally. Historically, if the PTI remains above 35, it indicates a normal profit-taking, which allows the market to resume its trend to a new high. A PTI of less than 35 indicates too much profit-taking and diminishes the odds that the Wave 5 rally will set in."


As you can see on the chart above, the PTI index is at 63, indicating normal profit taking and a high confidence set-up for the coming Sell signal.


What's a cake without frosting? Below is the same SPX chart as above, only this time in place of the Elliott Oscillator, the False Bar Stochastic:


"Now, it is time to enter the trade. To confirm the validity of an entry point, we developed the regression trend channel, which contains prices within a set of statistical boundaries. These statistical boundaries are calculated using a standard deviation of 2, which, in essence, means that the area between these boundaries contains approximately 94 percent of the prices. When prices break out of these boundaries, this confirms a change in trend."




The above chart drills down (think "zooms in") to the corrective channel since early March. The regression channels are drawn from the end of Wave 3. As of next week, a print below 868 would be the trigger to short in accordance with this Type 1 trading technique.

There it is, an almost perfect set-up for the next leg down of an ongoing bear market, via the Advanced GET Type 1 mechanical sell signal. Throw in a pending False Bar Stochastic sell signal, the giddy sentiment referenced in my previous blog and it appears to me that everything is coming together for a heck of a profitable trade to the downside.

"Its not dark yet, but its getting there."


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Friday, May 08, 2009

Weekend alert

Going into the last hour of trading Friday, I want to suggest that all take a close read on market sentiment this weekend. The euphoria I am hearing in the media and from analysts being interviewed today can only be described as chilling.

A peak in sentiment should accompany a final peak in the Wave 4 rally that my weekly chart has been tracking for the past 10 weeks. That's not to say that this is the top, right here and now, only that the elements are coming into place that would allow that top to occur.

Accordingly, all shorter-term Sell signals should be given our utmost attention and respect.


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The new plague

Top flu expert warns of a swine flu-bird flu mix



MEXICO CITY – Bird flu kills more than 60 percent of its human victims, but doesn't easily pass from person to person. Swine flu can be spread with a sneeze or handshake, but kills only a small fraction of the people it infects.

So what happens if they mix?

This is the scenario that has some scientists worried: The two viruses meet — possibly in Asia, where bird flu is endemic — and combine into a new bug that is both highly contagious and lethal and can spread around the world.

Scientists are unsure how likely this possibility is, but note that the new swine flu strain — a never-before-seen mixture of pig, human and bird viruses — has shown itself to be especially adept at snatching evolutionarily advantageous genetic material from other flu viruses.

"This particular virus seems to have this unique ability to pick up other genes," said leading virologist Dr. Robert Webster, whose team discovered an ancestor of the current flu virus at a North Carolina pig farm in 1998.

The current swine flu strain — known as H1N1 — has sickened more than 2,300 people in 24 countries. While people can catch bird flu from birds, the bird flu virus — H5N1 — does not easily jump from person to person. It has killed at least 258 people worldwide since it began to ravage poultry stocks in Asia in late 2003.

The World Health Organization reported two new human cases of bird flu on Wednesday. One patient is recovering in Egypt, while another died in Vietnam — a reminder that the H5N1 virus is far from gone.

"Do not drop the ball in monitoring H5N1," WHO Director-General Margaret Chan told a meeting of Asia's top health officials in Bangkok on Friday by video link. "We have no idea how H5N1 will behave under the pressure of a pandemic."

Experts have long feared that bird flu could mutate into a form that spreads easily among people. The past three flu pandemics — the 1918 Spanish flu, the 1957-58 Asian flu and the Hong Kong flu of 1968-69 — were all linked to birds, though some scientists believe pigs also played a role in 1918.

Webster, who works at St. Jude's Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., said bird flu should be a worry now. Bird flu is endemic in parts of Asia and Africa, and cases of swine flu have already been confirmed in South Korea and Hong Kong.

"My great worry is that when this H1N1 virus gets into the epicenters for H5N1 in Indonesia, Egypt and China, we may have real problems," he told The Associated Press. "We have to watch what's going on very diligently now."

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are extraordinarily busy trying to understand the swine flu virus itself, and haven't had time to break off staff to look at the possibility of a swine flu-bird flu mix, spokesman Dave Daigle said.

Malik Peiris, a flu expert at Hong Kong University, said the more immediate worry is that swine flu will mix with regular flu viruses, as flu season begins in the Southern Hemisphere. It is unclear what such a combination would produce.

But he said there are indications that scenario is possible. Peiris noted that the swine flu virus jumped from a farmworker in Canada and infected about 220 pigs. The worker and the pigs recovered, but the incident showed how easily the virus can leap to a different species.
"It will get passed back to pigs and then probably go from pigs to humans," Peiris said. "So there would be opportunities for further reassortments to occur with viruses in pigs."

He said so far bird flu hasn't established itself in pigs — but that could change.

"H5N1 itself has not got established in pigs," he said. "If that were to happen and then these two viruses were both established in pigs in Asia, that would be quite a worrying scenario."
Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Minnesota who has advised the U.S. government on flu preparations, said while flu experts are discussing the scenario, he has yet to see specific evidence causing him to think it will happen.

"Everything with influenza is a huge guessing game because Mother Nature holds all the rules, and we don't even know what they are, so anything's possible," he said. "We don't have any evidence that this particular reassortment is that much more likely to pick up H5N1 than any other reassortment out there."

"We don't have to put these things together," he added. "This is not chocolate and peanut butter running into each other in the dark hallway."

But there is in fact discussion of putting them together — in a high-security laboratory — to see what a combination would look like, according to Webster. Similar tests have been done at the CDC mixing bird flu and seasonal human flu, resulting in a weak product, he said.

Daigle, the CDC spokesman, said the agency wants to look at the question in the future.

Webster has done groundbreaking work on both swine and bird flus in his 40-year career, and has followed the evolution of the current swine flu strain from a virus that sickened a handful of people who worked with North Carolina hogs into a bug that has spread from person to person around the world.

He is closely involved in the global effort to analyze what the virus might do next. It has killed 42 people in Mexico and two in Texas, but so far has not proven very deadly elsewhere, leading to some criticism that the World Health Organization's warnings of a potential pandemic have been overblown.

Webster said underestimating the swine flu virus would be a huge mistake.

"This H1N1 hasn't been overblown. It's a puppy, it's an infant, and it's growing," he said. "This virus has got the whole human population in the world to breed in — it's just happened. What we have to do is to watch it, and it may become a wimp and disappear, or it may become nasty."

Thursday, May 07, 2009

Game 4: Red Wings 6, Ducks 3

Friday, May 8, 2009

Game 4: Red Wings 6, Ducks 3

Red Wings solve Hiller, even series with Ducks

Dave Dye / The Detroit News

Anaheim, Calif. -- When Red Wings coach Mike Babcock reunited Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg part way through the first period Thursday, he couldn't have imagined his new second line actually would be the difference.



But it was Johan Franzen, Marian Hossa and Valtteri Filppula who took control of the game.

Franzen and Hossa scored two goals each to lead the Red Wings to a 6-3 victory in Game 4 of a Western Conference semifinal.

The Wings regained the home-ice advantage, tying the series 2-2, with Game 5 on Sunday at Joe Louis Arena



Ducks goalie Jonas Hiller, who had a 1.74 goals-against average and .955 save percentage in his first nine playoff games, got pulled with 17:14 remaining after Mikael Samuelsson gave the Wings a 5-2 lead. Jean-Sebastien Giguere replaced Hiller, who had taken Giguere's job late in the season.

Franzen has a knack for coming through when the Wings need it most, and did they ever need it after the Ducks scored in the first minute in a game that could have given them a huge 3-1 series lead.

Franzen, 29, who signed an 11-year contract extension last month, scored the Wings first two goals. He has 19 goals in his last 24 playoff games going back to last season.

Hossa, whose apparent tying goal late in Tuesday's Game 3 loss was negated by a quick whistle, scored two that counted in the final four minutes of the second period Thursday for a 4-2 lead.

Hossa had no points in the first three games of the series while playing on a line with Datsyuk and Tomas Holmstrom.

Stress Testicles

"With the Obama honeymoon coming to an end, we are going to see how the markets move without government influence. There has never been a government that was able to dodge a major business cycle… and this one sure is a doozy."






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Trio

Earlier today (Thursday) the 60-minute SPX model went SHORT:


This move was confirmed with a BUY on SDS:


As well as a BUY on FAZ:



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Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Swing trading, Part II

Here is a continuation of the previously posted Swing trading chart, the 60-minute SPX chart, following the BW trend signals:


The Sell signal from May 5th was well into the money in overnight trading, but was closed out at a loss as a Buy signal was triggered early Wednesday at 905.40, for a loss on the Sell of about 6 S&P points. The new Buy is ahead by about 14 S&P points and will reverse at 911.36 or higher, locking in at least a 6 point gain.


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