Here is the chart:
This is the advantage of having a real time charting system combined with a real time trading tool. CTIC was clearly on a BW BUY confirmed with an EW Wave 3 UP.
Whoever posted this idea, a tip of my hat!
A
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
CTIC
In a Comment to my last blog, someone said CTIC was about to explode. I pulled it up on a BW real time 60 minute chart, saw it was popping and bought a small position. It doubled in the next hour.
Here is the chart:
This is the advantage of having a real time charting system combined with a real time trading tool. CTIC was clearly on a BW BUY confirmed with an EW Wave 3 UP.
Whoever posted this idea, a tip of my hat!
A
Here is the chart:
This is the advantage of having a real time charting system combined with a real time trading tool. CTIC was clearly on a BW BUY confirmed with an EW Wave 3 UP.
Whoever posted this idea, a tip of my hat!
A
CXM - update
CXM was written up here on April 6. After running up to $1.89, it collapsed into the $1.20's and has now risen to back around where it began the round trip. The two relevant charts are Triangles and Blue Wave Trend:
The former is a Daily chart and the latter is a Weekly chart. They are both saying the same thing, that a pop up over $1.90 is needed to confirm the bullish case, as it will trigger a Weekly BUY on the Triangle chart, to join the Monthly Buy currently in effect. That's about 15c above current prices. Blue Wave will want out if prices print under $1.38. What is not so clear is if that pop will come now, or after another visit with the $1.20's? Buy strength, sell weakness.
A
The former is a Daily chart and the latter is a Weekly chart. They are both saying the same thing, that a pop up over $1.90 is needed to confirm the bullish case, as it will trigger a Weekly BUY on the Triangle chart, to join the Monthly Buy currently in effect. That's about 15c above current prices. Blue Wave will want out if prices print under $1.38. What is not so clear is if that pop will come now, or after another visit with the $1.20's? Buy strength, sell weakness.
A
Tuesday, May 05, 2009
Swing trading chart
Above 60-minute chart is an example of a Swing trading pattern with two excellent tools, the False Bar Stochastic and Blue Wave Trend Model. The trading period is the past two weeks and the actual trades can be either a simple stochastic long/short model or the mechanical signals (shown on chart) from Blue Wave. The two models can also be integrated to filter the best, sweetest trades, but the table below summarizes only the BW-based trades, all basis the SPX:
Sell - 4/20 - 864.38..........+23.49
Buy - 4/21 - 840.89..........+ 9.71
Sell - 4/22 - 850.50..........+ 4.40
Buy - 4/23 - 846.10..........+13.36
Sell - 4/27 - 859.46........... - 2.30
Buy - 4/29 - 861.76.......... +16.54
Sell - 4/30 - 878.30.......... +0.09
Buy - 5/4 - 878.21........... +21.02
Sell - 5/5 - 899.23............ -4.57
Current - 903.80
TOTAL............................ +81.74
It didn't matter what I, nor anyone else, thought about where the market was going during this two week period. The Advanced GET software recognized this advance as a Wave 5 rally so its not surprising that the best performing trades were Buys, following the final decline of a previous Wave 4 decline, the Sell on April 20th, which ended up being the best trade of the lot.
There are so many ways to be a successful trader, almost none of which include following someone else's advice. But not all tools are created equal. The ones I use, the Triangles, Advanced GET, Blue Wave, have survived years of my buying and trying all kinds of tools and techniques, so those that are left are the ones that I believe work the best. Remember my mantra, "Find something that works......then use it."
My trade of the year will show up in my tools. In fact, they are designed just for such instances, the trade will not get very far without bringing me and my accounts along. When I am sure, or at least pretty sure, I'll bring all of you along too. It's too, too, full of potential not to share.
When?
One of these Sells will be the one. We just won't know it at the time. But we will, soon enough thereafter.
A
GFRE - update
GFRE was recommended last December at 22c. It's trading today at $0.62.
Above is the Trade Triangle chart for GFRE. A Monthly BUY triggered in December and has been in effect the entire time. There was a Weekly SELL in late January which flipped to a Weekly BUY in mid-March. This is such a simple, elegant and inexpensive way to trade stocks, if you have no other tools, start here.
With close to a triple on GFRE, it's remains on a BUY and there is nothing to do except watch it ascend.
To those of you still in this one, a tip of my hat for having the discipline and desire to be successful traders.
A
Above is the Trade Triangle chart for GFRE. A Monthly BUY triggered in December and has been in effect the entire time. There was a Weekly SELL in late January which flipped to a Weekly BUY in mid-March. This is such a simple, elegant and inexpensive way to trade stocks, if you have no other tools, start here.
With close to a triple on GFRE, it's remains on a BUY and there is nothing to do except watch it ascend.
To those of you still in this one, a tip of my hat for having the discipline and desire to be successful traders.
A
Monday, May 04, 2009
Color commentary
The chart below is once again the Weekly S&P only this time with Fibonacci retracement levels superimposed upon the price chart.
Each bar represents one week of trading. There have been ten bars since the early March low. The past seven, including this week, have been blue, equating to an uptrend. As of today, Monday, the uptrend has just touched the 25% retracement level. Prices can rise further, without endangering my premise that this is a bear market bull trap suckers rally.
The 38% retracement is way up over S&P 1000. So a normal retracement would be expected to run 10% or so higher. But this is not a normal market by any means. I don't expect prices to breach 1000, but even if that happens, it makes no difference as to what will come next. The first red weekly bar will trigger the trade of the year.
A
Each bar represents one week of trading. There have been ten bars since the early March low. The past seven, including this week, have been blue, equating to an uptrend. As of today, Monday, the uptrend has just touched the 25% retracement level. Prices can rise further, without endangering my premise that this is a bear market bull trap suckers rally.
The 38% retracement is way up over S&P 1000. So a normal retracement would be expected to run 10% or so higher. But this is not a normal market by any means. I don't expect prices to breach 1000, but even if that happens, it makes no difference as to what will come next. The first red weekly bar will trigger the trade of the year.
A
Sunday, May 03, 2009
Bonds & Gold
Lets take a look at two other markets that present trading opportunities from time to time, Bonds and Gold.
First Bonds, via the TLT, a Long Bond ETF.
The above Weekly chart paints a picture of a major trend change in interest rates at the end of 2008. The major LOW in rates occurred in December and rates have been rising ever since. The EW count suggests that there is a lot further to go, higher rates for the foreseeable future.
The above 34 minute chart with FBS & BW illustrates how interest rates can be effectively traded right from your home computer.
Below a Weekly chart of the Gold market via the Gold ETF, GLD.
This GLD chart is pointing to a pivotal Low in Gold in the near future, followed by another swing up. But this is not a clear as the other markets, S&P and Bonds. Thus, with no high-confidence longer term forecast, Gold remains a traders market.
Drilling down to the 34 minute chart, we can see numerous higher confidence trades in both directions based on the FBS. So even without a clear forecast, a trader can take advantage of opportunities without a big picture compass.
Finally, my Weekly chart of NNVC:
My commentary on this chart is simply that in 40 years of trading and 25 years Technical Analysis, I have never seen a breakout like this one fail. Coming back to to touch the the channel, even toy with it, is normal. The expectation is still for much higher prices to come.
A
First Bonds, via the TLT, a Long Bond ETF.
Weekly
The above Weekly chart paints a picture of a major trend change in interest rates at the end of 2008. The major LOW in rates occurred in December and rates have been rising ever since. The EW count suggests that there is a lot further to go, higher rates for the foreseeable future.
34 minute
The above 34 minute chart with FBS & BW illustrates how interest rates can be effectively traded right from your home computer.
Below a Weekly chart of the Gold market via the Gold ETF, GLD.
Weekly GLD
This GLD chart is pointing to a pivotal Low in Gold in the near future, followed by another swing up. But this is not a clear as the other markets, S&P and Bonds. Thus, with no high-confidence longer term forecast, Gold remains a traders market.
34 minute
Drilling down to the 34 minute chart, we can see numerous higher confidence trades in both directions based on the FBS. So even without a clear forecast, a trader can take advantage of opportunities without a big picture compass.
Finally, my Weekly chart of NNVC:
My commentary on this chart is simply that in 40 years of trading and 25 years Technical Analysis, I have never seen a breakout like this one fail. Coming back to to touch the the channel, even toy with it, is normal. The expectation is still for much higher prices to come.
A
Saturday, May 02, 2009
A smile that explodes
Artist: Joseph Arthur
Song: A smile that explodes
Album: Our shadows will remain
Video: Late, Late Show
Review by Allan: Brilliant
Song: A smile that explodes
Album: Our shadows will remain
Video: Late, Late Show
Review by Allan: Brilliant
Trade of the year
Above is the Weekly S&P chart that moves like a large ocean liner in a confounding Wave 4 rally that drains the souls of bears and bulls alike.
Below, we drill down to a 2 hour chart which illustrates why there is no slam dunk trades in either direction.......not yet.
Below, the shortest time frame for swing trades and position traders, a 30 minute chart:
SUMMARY
The only chart that is meaningful to me is the top chart, the Weekly bar chart, which is setting up for the trade of the year.
A
A perfect storm
WHO fears complications if HIV and H1N1 viruses combine
The nightmare scenario: HIV opens the door to transmission through the air by an unholy alliance between HIV and H1N1.
Need I say it?
N N V C
A
The nightmare scenario: HIV opens the door to transmission through the air by an unholy alliance between HIV and H1N1.
Need I say it?
N N V C
A
Friday, May 01, 2009
Can you hear me now?
A couple of interesting Big Picture charts from Henry Blodget of Clusterstock.
This pretty much sums up where we are, where we have come from and maybe, where we are going. To simplify, these charts suggest that another 50% or more down is ahead for the markets, which is pretty much in line with the EW forecast from my weekly charts.
As for current market sentiment, Blodget observes that, "Market punditry is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. Pundits are excellent at describing what has happened, not what is going to happen."
"Pundits" would include both Blodget and yours truly. But even a blind squirrel driving a Hummer is headed in one direction or another, whether realizing it or not. Knowing what could happen is second only to knowing what will happen.
A
This pretty much sums up where we are, where we have come from and maybe, where we are going. To simplify, these charts suggest that another 50% or more down is ahead for the markets, which is pretty much in line with the EW forecast from my weekly charts.
As for current market sentiment, Blodget observes that, "Market punditry is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. Pundits are excellent at describing what has happened, not what is going to happen."
"Pundits" would include both Blodget and yours truly. But even a blind squirrel driving a Hummer is headed in one direction or another, whether realizing it or not. Knowing what could happen is second only to knowing what will happen.
A
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