Secrets of the moon

FBS = False Bar Stochastic

Proprietary to Advanced GET and developed by Tom Joseph, the False Bar Stochastic attempts to devine trending from cyclic price action through a traditional 14-3-3 stochastic oscillator. The FBS generates a black horizontal line where it detects a trending market, suggesting that any stochastic-generated signals be ignored under those conditions. The FBS works on all time frames, One-minute through Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly periods.

Above is a Weekly chart of the SPX. Annotated on the chart are the FBS-generated Signals for the past three years:

07/17/06 BUY = 1240

03/12/07 BUY = 1387

08/13/07 BUY = 1445

10/22/07 SELL = 1535

05/19/08 SELL = 1376

Current price = 866

I've also drawn some trend channels coming down from what appears to be a Wave 2 peak coinciding with the most recent FBS Sell. In fact, all of the FBS Signals appear to coincide with Primary Degree Elliott Waves.

My working hypthesis is that the next FBS signal will be a SELL and coincide with the completion of Wave 4 and the beginning of Wave 5 down.


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Swine Flu and Elliott Wave Analysis

The fact is that epidemics and pandemics seem to hit populations during major negative social mood trends. ...when we study pandemics of the Dark Ages or the Spanish influenza epidemic that broke out during the bear market of 1917 (which year also saw intense fighting in World War I and the Communist coup in Russia), there always appears to be a bear market in force, and the extent of the epidemic tends to correlate with the size of the setback in mood. -- Bob Prechter, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, Chapter 18.

There is an article to the right from Elliott Wave International that is worth reading. It is titled. "Swine Flu and Elliott Wave Analysis" and it's genesis is with the above quote from Robert Prechter's Socionomics book. (Click on "What does a rally really tell you" to access the list of articles including the Swine flu article).


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Swine Flu

Mid-decade there were  global alerts for a spreading new flu virus carried by birds. It was this news story that propelled NNVC from 10c to $3.75 in about a six month period.

Here is today's headline story from Drudge Report:




US 'very concerned' about swine flu outbreak

Apr 24 09:32 AM US/Eastern

US medical authorities expressed strong concern Friday about an unprecedented multi-strain swine flu outbreak that has killed at least 60 people in Mexico and infected seven people in the United States.

"It's very obvious that we are very concerned. We've stood up emergency operation centers," Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) spokesman Dave Daigle told AFP.

One major source of concern was that the virus included strains from different types of flu.

"This is the first time that we've seen an avian strain, two swine strains and a human strain," said Daigle, adding that the virus had influenza strains from European and Asian swine, but not from North American swine.

In 11 of 12 reported human cases of swine influenza (H1N1) virus infection in the United States from December 2005 to February 2009, the CDC has documented direct or indirect contact with swine.

But the seven known cases of the previously undetected strain in the United States -- five from California and two from Texas -- did not have contact with pigs. The seven people infected have all recovered from the flu.

"We have determined that this virus is contagious and is spreading from human to human," the CDC said on its website. "However, at this time, we have not determined how easily the virus spreads between people."

Local and state health officials were interviewing not just the people who were infected but the people with whom they had contact, Daigle noted.

Officials were looking for the source of the infection, Daigle said, adding that US health officials were due to receive samples from Mexico that would be tested at a lab at the centers based in Atlanta, Georgia.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has identified swine influenza as a potential source of a human flu pandemic. Pandemics usually occur every 20 years.

"Our experts and others are saying are not saying it's not a matter of whether but when. And we are past due," said Daigle.

Swine flu is caused by type A influenza and does not normally infect humans but cases have been reported among people, especially those exposed to pigs, the CDC said. Most outbreaks take place during the late fall and winter months.

Swine flu symptoms include fever, lethargy, lack of appetite and coughing. Some people who have contracted the virus have also reported runny nose, sore throat, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea, according to the CDC.

Human outbreaks of H1N1 swine influenza virus were recorded in the United States in 1976 and 1988, when two deaths were reported, and in 1986. In 1988, a pregnant woman died after contact with sick pigs, the WHO said.

In recent years, the global focus for a pandemic has shifted to the H5N1 bird flu virus, which has spread from poultry to humans, especially in Asia.

Breaking news

The Detroit Red Wings eliminated the Columbus Bluejackets in a sweep of their First Round four game series, beating the Bluejackets 6-5, tonight in Columbus. The Red Wings advance to Round Two of the Stanley Cup playoffs against either the Vancouver Canucks or the Anaheim Ducks, depending on the outcome of their respective First Round series.

Detroit became the first Stanley Cup Champion in six years to advance in the following year's playoffs to Round Two.



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Why are you here?

Here is Thursday's closing bar chart of the Nasdaq chart posted earlier:


Wow, big rally ended up hardly making a dent in the chart. From early November, this index has basically gone nowhere. Much ado about essentially nothing. Find me a chart of a new bull market that started like the chart above and I'll post it.

Housekeeping

After five years, I've added to my Profile, on the right. Now it is required reading for this course. Your final exam will rely heavily on the concepts contained therein. In fact, I'll give you the first exam question now, so you can be thinking about it:

Why are you here?


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Daily Nasdaq 100

Below is a Daily chart of the same Nasdaq 100 previously shown in the Weekly chart:


Noteworthy is the trend line coming down from the Wave 2 Top in August, 2008. This stopped the Wave 4 rally cold last week at about 1362. It is a powerful resistance line and prices should not exceed it if the analysis on the chart of a Wave 4 turning into Wave 5 is correct. "Exceed" means moves above and stay's above the line.

The Nasdaq is set to open up higher today on the strength of Apple's earnings. Expect the line to be tested and be prepared to give it a Pass/Fail grade soon thereafter.

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Weekly Nasdaq 100

Below is a Weekly chart of the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX). I'm posting it because it provides yet another piece of the puzzle, hopefully providing some clarity as to the bigger picture.



What strikes me is are the Channel and the False Bar Stochastic. Although there is room for this index to rise, there is a lot more room for it to fall.

I am not looking for bearish charts.........

............but I keep finding them.


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NNVC - News

NSLIJ Scientists to Present EKC-Cide(TM) Study Results at the GTC-Bio Conference on Ocular Diseases and Drug Discovery

Last update: 7:00 a.m. EDT April 21, 2009

WEST HAVEN, Conn., Apr 21, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB) (the "Company"), reports that Dr. Vivien Boniuk, Associate Professor of Ophthalmology, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, associated with the North Shore Long Island Jewish Health System (NSLIJ), will be presenting additional results from the animal studies on nanoviricide drug candidates against Epidemic Kerato-Conjunctivitis (EKC). These studies were conducted at the Feinstein Institute for Medical Research of the NSLIJ. Dr. Boniuk will be speaking at the GTC-Bio Conference on Ocular Diseases and Drug Discovery on April 21 in Philadelphia, PA.

Both of the nanoviricide drug candidates evaluated in this pilot study were found to be clinically highly effective against EKC caused by an adenovirus in the rabbit animal model. Both nanoviricides significantly reduced conjunctival injection (severe redness of the eye) as well as blepharitis (exudate, swelling, matting of fur). NanoViricides, Inc. has previously announced the preliminary findings of the study as they were received by the Company.

In addition to the significant positive clinical findings reported earlier, Dr. Boniuk will also report that the best nanoviricide drug candidate showed excellent long term results. There were no SEI's (Sub-Epithelial Infiltrates) in animals treated with this nanoviricide (0% incidence). In contrast, in vehicle-treated animals, 83% incidence of SEI's was found, and a 100% incidence of SEI's occurred in untreated infected animals. SEI's are caused by local T-cell mediated immune response to the adenovirus, leading to hazy spots in the cornea. Occurrence of SEI's in the human eye can lead to decreased visual acuity for as long as two years. In all the treated as well as untreated infected animals, robust antibody response was observed to occur as measured by antibody titers on day 21. Nanoviricide treatment thus led to both clinical resolution and immune protection against adenovirus. As expected, no antibody response occurred in uninfected animals.

Long term reduction of visual acuity (poor vision) in severe cases of EKC in humans is caused by the occurrence of SEI's. Thus, absence of SEI's is an excellent indication of a strong therapeutic effect for EKC-Cide(TM) in human EKC.

"These results confirm that our EKC-Cide is likely the best available drug candidate in development against EKC," said Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, CEO of the Company, adding, "We are now planning to evaluate its effect against herpes virus infection of the external eye."

Together, herpesviruses and adenoviruses are the principal causes of serious viral diseases of the external eye. At present, there is no satisfactory treatment for adenoviral keratitis/conjunctivitis. The potential domestic market for an effective drug against all viral infections of the external eye is variously estimated to be from $500M to billions of dollars.


In another news, the Company has updated the Product Pipeline page on its website ( http://www.nanoviricides.com/pipeline.html). The Company has also added Prof. Thomas Lentz to the Scientific Advisory Board list on its website ( http://www.nanoviricides.com/lentz.html).

Chillin' out

Let's not get carried way, not quite yet.

Here's the same chart as was posted Sunday, zoomed in and with the additional bar for the week that began with Monday's trading:


What do we glean from this chart?

That the FBS is rolling over, just above the signal line;
that the weekly trend won't turn down until about 752;
that until that happens, the trend is still up (blue);
and that it takes 16 wins to capture the Stanley Cup, the Red Wings have 14 more wins to go.

Question: Allan, I don't see anything about the Red Wings on the chart.

Allan: That's not a question.

One more thing.

If this were the start of a vicious new decline, it might look exactly like the chart above. But so would a lot of other things, including a shallow retracement. So let's chill out for now.


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Treasury Says ‘No Basis’ to Report on Bank Testing

Treasury Says ‘No Basis’ to Report on Bank Testing

By Vincent Del Giudice and Nick Baker

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- A U.S. Treasury spokesman said there’s no basis to a blog posting that buffeted financial stocks by saying that most of the nation’s largest banks are insolvent.

Andrew Williams, a Treasury spokesman, dismissed the report from Hal Turner of North Bergen, New Jersey, “particularly given we don’t have stress test results yet.



Does anyone believe that they don't have results, or what they later will call "Preliminary Results" of these stress tests? Or that they will tweak parameters until they get the "results" they want?

What sayeth the markets?

Today's SKF (ULTRASHORT FINANCIALS)
including the 3 hours after Treasury statement above

I can't find the Treasury's denial reflected on that chart, can you?



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