This link and article were posted by Wayne under the Comments of my previous post from Sunday. It is important enough by and through its implications to give it additional exposure advancing it to my front page.
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The Turner Radio Network has obtained "stress test" results for the top 19 Banks in the USA.
The stress tests were conducted to determine how well, if at all, the top 19 banks in the USA could withstand further or future economic hardship.
When the tests were completed, regulators within the Treasury and inside the Federal Reserve began bickering with each other as to whether or not the test results should be made public. That bickering continues to this very day as evidenced by this "main stream media" report.
The Turner Radio Network has obtained the stress test results. They are very bad. The most salient points from the stress tests appear below.
1) Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent.
2) Of the 16 banks that are already technically insolvent, not even one can withstand any disruption of cash flow at all or any further deterioration in non-paying loans.
3) If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding.
4) Of the top 19 banks in the nation, the top five (5) largest banks are under capitalized so dangerously, there is serious doubt about their ability to continue as ongoing businesses.
5) Five large U.S. banks have credit exposure related to their derivatives trading that exceeds their capital, with four in particular - JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, HSBC Bank America and Citibank - taking especially large risks.
6) Bank of America`s total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital; Citibank`s was 278 percent; JPMorgan Chase`s, 382 percent; and HSBC America`s, 550 percent. It gets even worse: Goldman Sachs began reporting as a commercial bank, revealing an alarming total credit exposure of 1,056 percent, or more than ten times its capital!
7) Not only are there serious questions about whether or not JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs,Citibank, Wells Fargo, Sun Trust Bank, HSBC Bank USA, can continue in business, more than 1,800 regional and smaller institutions are at risk of failure despite government bailouts!
The debt crisis is much greater than the government has reported. The FDIC`s "Problem List" of troubled banks includes 252 institutions with assets of $159 billion. 1,816 banks and thrifts are at risk of failure, with total assets of $4.67 trillion, compared to 1,568 institutions, with $2.32 trillion in total assets in prior quarter.
Put bluntly, the entire US Banking System is in complete and total collapse.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Tsunami into the abyss
Three charts, all with the same message.
First, Triangle chart on a Weekly Buy and well above a reversal Short. These are trend following charts, they are not predictive, they are in the now and only in the now:
Next up, S&P 500 Weekly analysis chart, same old, same old: In a sideways to upward tilt in a Wave 4 consolidation before next leg down. Each successive week has this chart closer and closer to its breakdown as is best evidenced by the False Bar Stochastic reaching overbought and reversal levels.
Directly underneath this Weekly S&P is the Weekly VIX. Take special notice of each and every time the VIX Stochastic reached oversold levels, as it is now. Take a ruler or any straight measuring device and connect the dots, only in this case, not dots, connect oversold areas on the VIX to major TOPS in the S&P:
Finally and especially for all the new readers to this blog, the Weekly S&P analysis is my big picture view of the equity markets. That view is of a multi-year bear market that on occasion, as is now, will pause, rally, consolidate, refresh itself and then dive lower. I would like to catch those turn-downs much more then I care to exploit the rally phases. Although I do utilize models that trend follow and accordingly do follow prices no matter what direction they are going (currently up), the big guns are set on those lucrative, juicy declines.
The Weekly charts are my GPS, pointing in the direction of the true trend that will assert itself in a big way when and only when the market decides the time is right. The next big decline will start off as a simple short term reversal in trend. That's why every short term Sell is important, because one of these days, it will be THE one we are looking for. By taking every short term Sell signal as it appears, there will a pretty damn good chance of being Short when the next tsunami into the abyss occurs.
BUT THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED, IN FACT IF ANYTHING, THESE CHARTS ARE CONFIRMING THE BEARISH CASE WITH EACH PASSING WEEK.
A
First, Triangle chart on a Weekly Buy and well above a reversal Short. These are trend following charts, they are not predictive, they are in the now and only in the now:
Next up, S&P 500 Weekly analysis chart, same old, same old: In a sideways to upward tilt in a Wave 4 consolidation before next leg down. Each successive week has this chart closer and closer to its breakdown as is best evidenced by the False Bar Stochastic reaching overbought and reversal levels.
Directly underneath this Weekly S&P is the Weekly VIX. Take special notice of each and every time the VIX Stochastic reached oversold levels, as it is now. Take a ruler or any straight measuring device and connect the dots, only in this case, not dots, connect oversold areas on the VIX to major TOPS in the S&P:
Finally and especially for all the new readers to this blog, the Weekly S&P analysis is my big picture view of the equity markets. That view is of a multi-year bear market that on occasion, as is now, will pause, rally, consolidate, refresh itself and then dive lower. I would like to catch those turn-downs much more then I care to exploit the rally phases. Although I do utilize models that trend follow and accordingly do follow prices no matter what direction they are going (currently up), the big guns are set on those lucrative, juicy declines.
The Weekly charts are my GPS, pointing in the direction of the true trend that will assert itself in a big way when and only when the market decides the time is right. The next big decline will start off as a simple short term reversal in trend. That's why every short term Sell is important, because one of these days, it will be THE one we are looking for. By taking every short term Sell signal as it appears, there will a pretty damn good chance of being Short when the next tsunami into the abyss occurs.
Question: What if you are wrong, Allan, and the market is in a major Bull Trend toward new all time highs?
Answer: The best, most profitable parts of bull markets come in the middle and end (remember 1995-1999?), so I'll be late to that party, but will enjoy its fruits, eventually. My charts are dynamic, if they pick up on the bull market thesis, I will become just as adamant on the long side as I am on the short side now.
BUT THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED, IN FACT IF ANYTHING, THESE CHARTS ARE CONFIRMING THE BEARISH CASE WITH EACH PASSING WEEK.
A
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Glenn Neely and NEoWave
Although he doesn't play ice hockey, there are other similarities and comparisons relevant to Glenn Neely that makes this post a natural follow-up to my ode to Pavel Datsyuk. Neely is one of the most brilliant market observers and analysts of our time. My accolades are not easily earned, but without a doubt Neely's view of the markets he covers, Stocks, Bonds, Gold and Currencies, is probably the most important opinion or analysis a trader need have, second only to your own.
Neely and Robert Prechter are almost always joined at the hip by media-derived reviews of current Elliott Wave theorists. Therein lies the rub, for Neely to be relegated to just another Elliott Wave interpretation misses an entire body of work and analysis that this man has generated over the past thirty years. If one were to look at his work, derived in part from his book, Mastering Elliott Wave, but more importantly from his published commentaries to his subscribers, it becomes readily apparent that there is a whole lot more to this analysis then numbers and letters on a chart.
From the opening paragraph of his book, you know that there is something different going on here:
Neely describes his approach to measuring crowd psychology in a scientific, objective context as "NEoWave." What are the differences between NEoWave and Elliott Wave? The public (free) area of the NEoWave web site carries a easily understood explanation:
Elliott Wave and NEoWave: How Do They Differ?
There is so much to Neely's analysis that hesitate to even try to explain it with my own words. For $39, Neely offer's a two-week trial to his four forecasting and trading services:
One more thing. What was Glenn Neely's market opinion at about the same time I had published my Crash Warning post?
With his permission, Glenn Neely's S&P Forecast chart from early October, 2008:
October 2008 Interview with Glenn Neely
A
Neely and Robert Prechter are almost always joined at the hip by media-derived reviews of current Elliott Wave theorists. Therein lies the rub, for Neely to be relegated to just another Elliott Wave interpretation misses an entire body of work and analysis that this man has generated over the past thirty years. If one were to look at his work, derived in part from his book, Mastering Elliott Wave, but more importantly from his published commentaries to his subscribers, it becomes readily apparent that there is a whole lot more to this analysis then numbers and letters on a chart.
From the opening paragraph of his book, you know that there is something different going on here:
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the plotted price activity of a market is the graphical representation of crowd psychology. The Wave Theory describes how local plotted data relates to surrounding data, how data should behave under a multitude of circumstances, when and how psychological trends begin and end, how one psychological environment mandates the unfolding of another and what general shape the price action should exhibig upon completion. In other words, the Elliott Wave Theory organizes the semingly random flow of market price action into identifiable, predictable patterns on the natural progression of crowd psychology.From Mastering Elliott Wave, Chapter 1, "What is Elliott Wave Theory.....Price Patterns of Psychology"; presented at Amazon.com's description of the book.
Neely describes his approach to measuring crowd psychology in a scientific, objective context as "NEoWave." What are the differences between NEoWave and Elliott Wave? The public (free) area of the NEoWave web site carries a easily understood explanation:
Elliott Wave and NEoWave: How Do They Differ?
There is so much to Neely's analysis that hesitate to even try to explain it with my own words. For $39, Neely offer's a two-week trial to his four forecasting and trading services:
NEoWave TRIAL OfferThis is a good deal, it will introduce to an entirely novel and fascinating analysis of major trading markets. For the cost of the commissions on a couple of stock trades, you can feed your head (apologies to Grace Slick) instead of your broker.
2-Week Subscription for only $39
What You Get
The NEoWave Trial Service provides a comprehensive sampling of all NEoWave Forecasting and Trading services released over a 2-week period.
The NEoWave Forecasting service provides Mr. Neely’s unique NEoWave analysis on four cash markets. When you subscribe, you will immediately receive (by email) the most recent updates for:
S&P
Gold
T-Notes
Euro Currency
One more thing. What was Glenn Neely's market opinion at about the same time I had published my Crash Warning post?
With his permission, Glenn Neely's S&P Forecast chart from early October, 2008:
October 2008 Interview with Glenn Neely
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Thursday, April 16, 2009
Heartfelt - Pavel Datsyuk
April 16, 2009
Pavel Datsyuk reveals a deeper, thoughtful, funny side using native tongue
BY MITCH ALBOM
FREE PRESS COLUMNIST
Hockey players are rarely loud. But even by the NHL's humble/mumble standards, Pavel Datsyuk has, for years, been silent.
Like most Red Wings watchers, I noticed the guy the minute he showed up. You couldn't help it. From his first season -- 2001-02 -- his quickness, the way he handled a puck, the way he flew between defenders as if they had their ankles chained together. How could you miss it? His passing was almost too good. His shots were like a cymbal crash. His defense improved to pickpocket status.
The All-Star selections? The Selke Trophy? Leading the NHL in takeaways? In all these facts, I knew Pavel Datsyuk. And in every other way, I didn't.
"No clue" is what I'd say when people asked me what he was like. Who had a clue? The most you ever got out of Datsyuk in a locker room were a few mumbles, a few clichés in a heavy accent and a smirk. After a while, many reporters didn't bother with him -- even though he often was the Wings' best player -- because how often can you hear: "We play good, I play good"?
But I had this theory. Every man is deeper than his sound bite. If Datsyuk ever sat down, relaxed, away from the rink, and spoke in Russian, I figured, he'd be a whole different story.
This week, I finally got to witness that, with the help of a Russian-speaking business associate of Datsyuk's named Dan Milstein. The three of us met at Bacco Ristorante in Southfield. Milstein translated. Sitting at a table, sipping a glass of water, Datsyuk shifted easily between his native tongue and his improved English.
And after a few hours, I knew more about this guy than I'd learned in eight years.
For one thing, he's funny. In either language. And he's got a philosophical side, often quoting old Russian expressions. Also -- and this struck me -- he was an orphan in his 20s; neither his father nor mother ever got to see him play in the United States, a fact that almost brings him to tears.
He is an anomaly in many ways, a fast player who likes to move slowly in real life, a 30-year-old man with a haircut from "Leave It To Beaver," an NHL star who in some ways is still reaching his potential.
After a 3-hour interview, he asks, "Please don't make me look like an ugly duckling who gets to be a swan." But then he quickly adds, "No, whatever you think, write it."
He is humble yet sarcastic, proud but shy. I liked him quite a bit after getting to know him.
Here is some of what he told me.
His first strides on the ice
For the first 10 years of his life, Pavel Datsyuk shared a bedroom with his older sister, in a three-room apartment in the large, industrial city of Sverdlovsk. They lived on the fourth floor of a building with no elevator. "It's how I got strong," he jokes. "Walking up the steps." What he seems to remember most about the place is a window, which looked down onto a makeshift ice oval between the buildings. That oval is where Datsyuk learned hockey -- although before he learned it, he yearned it.
"One time I was so sick, but I saw the other kids playing, and I told my mother, 'I want to play. I want to go out.' My throat was sore. My head hurt. But she said, 'If you can eat this food, I'll let you go out.' I ate it, even sick, because I wanted to play so badly. And I ran out there and I was happy."
Datsyuk was a scrawny kid. When his father first brought him to the local sports club, there was hockey and there was chess and Pavel, for a year or so, played chess. When he focused on the ice, there were no early agents or scouts, no joining the national team, no flying overseas to live with an American family.
Instead, Pavel played locally and didn't think a lot about professional hockey. He didn't think about much besides being a kid and having fun. His father, Valery, drove a van for a nearby company and his mother, Galina, worked as a cook for a military outlet. She would take him there sometimes and they'd come home with arms full of fruits, meats, desserts.
One time, when Pavel was in his early teens, his mother took him on a vacation. They went to a town near the sea. They swam. They enjoyed the sun. "Just me and her," he says. "It was a really good time."
When they got home, her health deteriorated rapidly. Pavel was only a teenager. He didn't understand why she was sleeping nights on the couch, why she was so tired all the time, why his sister began injecting her with pain medication.
Then one snow-filled morning, his sister woke him up and said their mother had died in her sleep. She was 46.
"I felt guilty," says Datsyuk, who was 16 at the time. "She had cancer. I didn't know she was so sick. I thought she would get better.
"When I look back, I think she took that last vacation with me because she knew she was going to die. She hugged me a lot. She loved me so much. But I don't think I understood how much at the time. I was too young."
Finding the love of his life
Her death had a profound effect on Datsyuk. "The day of the funeral, when I came home, the apartment -- it didn't have any color. It felt cold. I can still see that image now."
He chokes up even talking about it. He swallows and his cheeks redden. But back then, instead of expressing his grief, he drifted into a lonely fog. It went on for months. "I lost myself," he admits.
He skipped practices. He wanted to quit hockey altogether. Had he not been so afraid of how his father would react, we might never know of Pavel Datsyuk today.
Instead, because he didn't want to face the man's wrath, Datsyuk kept playing. He improved, but his body was still small for his age group -- he was maybe 150 pounds -- and although he was eligible, he went unselected in the 1996 and 1997 NHL drafts.
One night, when he was 18, he and a friend were at a café and they met a couple of girls. Datsyuk had just been given a car from the hockey club -- the first car he'd ever owned -- and he asked one girl if she wanted a ride. Her friend said yes. The girl said no. They haggled back and forth. Finally, she relented, he drove her home, and when they said good-bye, she gave him her phone number. Her name was Svetlana.
"I knew she was special, but I couldn't tell anybody," he says. "I couldn't express it to anyone how I felt."
Instead, a few days later, he tried to call her. The voice that answered sounded like her, but when he said who was calling, the voice said Svetlana wasn't home.
"I couldn't believe it," Datsyuk recalls. "She was pretending not to be her." An hour later, he called again. And again, the voice said, "She's still not home."
Datsyuk was incensed. He told a friend, "Can you believe this? Why did she even give me her number?"
He tried one more time, same result. Then, after a few minutes, his phone rang. It was Svetlana. She really had been out. The voice on the phone had been her mother.
"Even today," Datsyuk admits, smiling, "it's hard to tell them apart."
He and Svetlana were married three years later -- just before he came to America. It would prove, he says, a smart move. Finding a partner before fame and fortune can be the best path for a professional athlete.
"We really knew each other. We grew up together," Datsyuk says. And although he initially did not tell her he was a hockey player -- "When she asked where I was going, I said I had to leave town for a few days for work" -- in time, she accepted his occupation and even encouraged him to stay with it when a severe knee injury made him wonder if he could come back. He needed rehab and therapy.
"What would you have done if you couldn't have played hockey anymore?" I ask.
He grins and recites something in Russian. "You can plan, but God decides," comes the translation.
Pavel Datsyuk, philosopher.
The long road to Motown
Did you know Datsyuk was baptized was he was 21? The knee injury had something to do with it. So did the manager of his hockey team at the time, who kept asking him what he believed in and why he didn't believe in more.
"I was not thinking like a man," Pavel says now, "I was thinking like a boy."
Not long after that, he headed to America as an unheralded sixth-round draft pick. It was not like signing Sidney Crosby. Detroit wasn't sure what it had in Datsyuk. And Datsyuk was less sure than the Wings. As the 171st player taken, he hadn't even believed the news when a friend told him. He'd never met anyone from Detroit.
"It's in the newspaper," his friend said.
"Show me," Pavel said.
Then the Wings' European scouting ace, Hakan Andersson, came to visit. He explained that he actually had been scouting another player when he noticed Datsyuk's skills, small as he was, and became intrigued. He was on a plane to see him again when it got cancelled -- and a scout from St. Louis was on the same plane. That was lucky, Andersson said, because as a result, he was the only NHL scout to see Datsyuk before the draft, which is how the Wings came to steal him so low.
All of this meant little to Datsyuk, who never thought he was going to make the NHL anyhow. He nodded at Andersson, who needed a translator to speak Russian.
"He asked me do I need anything. I wanted to say, 'Yes. I need money.' "
Instead, Datsyuk says, Andersson sent him a pair of skates.
Adjusting to the NHL
Can you imagine arriving in America, with a new wife, a new career, no English -- and a few days later, living through Sept. 11? That's what happened to Datsyuk. He came for Wings training camp in the fall of 2001, and all of a sudden, he saw people huddled around TV sets in their Traverse City hotel. He saw strangers crying.
"I didn't understand what was going on. I didn't even know how to ask anyone."
Since that baptism of fire, he admits, American life has gotten easier. Having Russian teammates was a huge help. And the language barrier has been useful over the years in dealing with the media. "Most of the time," he says, "nobody comes up to me, and I can do what I need to do."
But there is part of Datsyuk that yearns to be better understood now. Life has forced him to mature. His father died a few years ago of a heart attack while sitting behind the wheel in a parking lot in Russia.
"I only found out after he died how proud he was of me. If I scored or something, he would talk to his friends about it. When I was playing in Russia" during the lockout year "he would call his friends and talk about how this happened or that happened. I never knew this. I found out from those men after he died."
Why didn't you talk more when he was alive?
"I don't know. He never came to watch me play in America."
Did he ever ask for a ticket?
"He never asked."
Do you wish he had gotten to see you before he died?
He swallows, and his face reddens again.
"Him -- and my mom."
So even if he tries to hide it, there is more to Datsyuk than the boyish haircut and the angular face that smirks and smiles. He is a father himself -- of a 6-year-old daughter. He is a rich man -- in the midst of a $47-million contract -- yet he's wise enough to quote an old Russian expression, "A happy person is the one who doesn't need anything." He is lightning quick on the ice, yet off the ice he often parks in the farthest spot, saying he misses the days in Russia when he used to have to walk everywhere.
And when I ask him the greatest moment of his hockey career, he says, "When I got injured in Russia." When pressed to explain, he says, "Because that is when I learned to appreciate how much I love the game."
His opponents would prefer he love it a little less. He is about to attack them in force starting tonight, as the Wings begin their defense of the Stanley Cup facing Columbus -- a team against which Datsyuk has notched 50 points in 37 career games.
What do you want people to know about you that they don't, I ask him?
"I am 5-foot-11 and weigh 190," he says, laughing. "No, I don't really like compliments. I don't think I am as good as I can be. I don't want to make a commercial about myself. Please."
OK then.
No commercial. No ugly duckling story. Just a curtain lifted on a guy who has been a sports fixture for eight years in this town, and deserves a moment to explain himself -- in his own words. You see an amazing performer when you watch Pavel Datsyuk buzz around the ice. But from this point on, I, for one, will see a lot more. And I only wish I had found a translator a few years earlier.
Additional Facts
Meet Pavs or Dats
Who: Pavel Valerievich Datsyuk, a Red Wings center.
Size: 5-feet-11, 190 pounds.
Shoots: Left.
Born: July 20, 1978, Sverdlovsk (now Yekaterinburg), Russia.
Drafted: Sixth round (171st overall) by Wings in 1998.
Debut: Oct. 4, 2001, at San Jose.
On the ice: Selke Trophy for best defensive forward (2008). Lady Byng for gentlemanly play (2006-08). Twice won Stanley Cup (2002, '08). Signed seven-year contract, longest in club history at the time, in April 2007. Led Wings in scoring four straight years (2006-09) -- a feat accomplished only by Gordie Howe and Steve Yzerman.
On the Web: www.datsyuk13.com.
Pavel Datsyuk reveals a deeper, thoughtful, funny side using native tongue
BY MITCH ALBOM
FREE PRESS COLUMNIST
Hockey players are rarely loud. But even by the NHL's humble/mumble standards, Pavel Datsyuk has, for years, been silent.
Like most Red Wings watchers, I noticed the guy the minute he showed up. You couldn't help it. From his first season -- 2001-02 -- his quickness, the way he handled a puck, the way he flew between defenders as if they had their ankles chained together. How could you miss it? His passing was almost too good. His shots were like a cymbal crash. His defense improved to pickpocket status.
The All-Star selections? The Selke Trophy? Leading the NHL in takeaways? In all these facts, I knew Pavel Datsyuk. And in every other way, I didn't.
"No clue" is what I'd say when people asked me what he was like. Who had a clue? The most you ever got out of Datsyuk in a locker room were a few mumbles, a few clichés in a heavy accent and a smirk. After a while, many reporters didn't bother with him -- even though he often was the Wings' best player -- because how often can you hear: "We play good, I play good"?
But I had this theory. Every man is deeper than his sound bite. If Datsyuk ever sat down, relaxed, away from the rink, and spoke in Russian, I figured, he'd be a whole different story.
This week, I finally got to witness that, with the help of a Russian-speaking business associate of Datsyuk's named Dan Milstein. The three of us met at Bacco Ristorante in Southfield. Milstein translated. Sitting at a table, sipping a glass of water, Datsyuk shifted easily between his native tongue and his improved English.
And after a few hours, I knew more about this guy than I'd learned in eight years.
For one thing, he's funny. In either language. And he's got a philosophical side, often quoting old Russian expressions. Also -- and this struck me -- he was an orphan in his 20s; neither his father nor mother ever got to see him play in the United States, a fact that almost brings him to tears.
He is an anomaly in many ways, a fast player who likes to move slowly in real life, a 30-year-old man with a haircut from "Leave It To Beaver," an NHL star who in some ways is still reaching his potential.
After a 3-hour interview, he asks, "Please don't make me look like an ugly duckling who gets to be a swan." But then he quickly adds, "No, whatever you think, write it."
He is humble yet sarcastic, proud but shy. I liked him quite a bit after getting to know him.
Here is some of what he told me.
His first strides on the ice
For the first 10 years of his life, Pavel Datsyuk shared a bedroom with his older sister, in a three-room apartment in the large, industrial city of Sverdlovsk. They lived on the fourth floor of a building with no elevator. "It's how I got strong," he jokes. "Walking up the steps." What he seems to remember most about the place is a window, which looked down onto a makeshift ice oval between the buildings. That oval is where Datsyuk learned hockey -- although before he learned it, he yearned it.
"One time I was so sick, but I saw the other kids playing, and I told my mother, 'I want to play. I want to go out.' My throat was sore. My head hurt. But she said, 'If you can eat this food, I'll let you go out.' I ate it, even sick, because I wanted to play so badly. And I ran out there and I was happy."
Datsyuk was a scrawny kid. When his father first brought him to the local sports club, there was hockey and there was chess and Pavel, for a year or so, played chess. When he focused on the ice, there were no early agents or scouts, no joining the national team, no flying overseas to live with an American family.
Instead, Pavel played locally and didn't think a lot about professional hockey. He didn't think about much besides being a kid and having fun. His father, Valery, drove a van for a nearby company and his mother, Galina, worked as a cook for a military outlet. She would take him there sometimes and they'd come home with arms full of fruits, meats, desserts.
One time, when Pavel was in his early teens, his mother took him on a vacation. They went to a town near the sea. They swam. They enjoyed the sun. "Just me and her," he says. "It was a really good time."
When they got home, her health deteriorated rapidly. Pavel was only a teenager. He didn't understand why she was sleeping nights on the couch, why she was so tired all the time, why his sister began injecting her with pain medication.
Then one snow-filled morning, his sister woke him up and said their mother had died in her sleep. She was 46.
"I felt guilty," says Datsyuk, who was 16 at the time. "She had cancer. I didn't know she was so sick. I thought she would get better.
"When I look back, I think she took that last vacation with me because she knew she was going to die. She hugged me a lot. She loved me so much. But I don't think I understood how much at the time. I was too young."
Finding the love of his life
Her death had a profound effect on Datsyuk. "The day of the funeral, when I came home, the apartment -- it didn't have any color. It felt cold. I can still see that image now."
He chokes up even talking about it. He swallows and his cheeks redden. But back then, instead of expressing his grief, he drifted into a lonely fog. It went on for months. "I lost myself," he admits.
He skipped practices. He wanted to quit hockey altogether. Had he not been so afraid of how his father would react, we might never know of Pavel Datsyuk today.
Instead, because he didn't want to face the man's wrath, Datsyuk kept playing. He improved, but his body was still small for his age group -- he was maybe 150 pounds -- and although he was eligible, he went unselected in the 1996 and 1997 NHL drafts.
One night, when he was 18, he and a friend were at a café and they met a couple of girls. Datsyuk had just been given a car from the hockey club -- the first car he'd ever owned -- and he asked one girl if she wanted a ride. Her friend said yes. The girl said no. They haggled back and forth. Finally, she relented, he drove her home, and when they said good-bye, she gave him her phone number. Her name was Svetlana.
"I knew she was special, but I couldn't tell anybody," he says. "I couldn't express it to anyone how I felt."
Instead, a few days later, he tried to call her. The voice that answered sounded like her, but when he said who was calling, the voice said Svetlana wasn't home.
"I couldn't believe it," Datsyuk recalls. "She was pretending not to be her." An hour later, he called again. And again, the voice said, "She's still not home."
Datsyuk was incensed. He told a friend, "Can you believe this? Why did she even give me her number?"
He tried one more time, same result. Then, after a few minutes, his phone rang. It was Svetlana. She really had been out. The voice on the phone had been her mother.
"Even today," Datsyuk admits, smiling, "it's hard to tell them apart."
He and Svetlana were married three years later -- just before he came to America. It would prove, he says, a smart move. Finding a partner before fame and fortune can be the best path for a professional athlete.
"We really knew each other. We grew up together," Datsyuk says. And although he initially did not tell her he was a hockey player -- "When she asked where I was going, I said I had to leave town for a few days for work" -- in time, she accepted his occupation and even encouraged him to stay with it when a severe knee injury made him wonder if he could come back. He needed rehab and therapy.
"What would you have done if you couldn't have played hockey anymore?" I ask.
He grins and recites something in Russian. "You can plan, but God decides," comes the translation.
Pavel Datsyuk, philosopher.
The long road to Motown
Did you know Datsyuk was baptized was he was 21? The knee injury had something to do with it. So did the manager of his hockey team at the time, who kept asking him what he believed in and why he didn't believe in more.
"I was not thinking like a man," Pavel says now, "I was thinking like a boy."
Not long after that, he headed to America as an unheralded sixth-round draft pick. It was not like signing Sidney Crosby. Detroit wasn't sure what it had in Datsyuk. And Datsyuk was less sure than the Wings. As the 171st player taken, he hadn't even believed the news when a friend told him. He'd never met anyone from Detroit.
"It's in the newspaper," his friend said.
"Show me," Pavel said.
Then the Wings' European scouting ace, Hakan Andersson, came to visit. He explained that he actually had been scouting another player when he noticed Datsyuk's skills, small as he was, and became intrigued. He was on a plane to see him again when it got cancelled -- and a scout from St. Louis was on the same plane. That was lucky, Andersson said, because as a result, he was the only NHL scout to see Datsyuk before the draft, which is how the Wings came to steal him so low.
All of this meant little to Datsyuk, who never thought he was going to make the NHL anyhow. He nodded at Andersson, who needed a translator to speak Russian.
"He asked me do I need anything. I wanted to say, 'Yes. I need money.' "
Instead, Datsyuk says, Andersson sent him a pair of skates.
Adjusting to the NHL
Can you imagine arriving in America, with a new wife, a new career, no English -- and a few days later, living through Sept. 11? That's what happened to Datsyuk. He came for Wings training camp in the fall of 2001, and all of a sudden, he saw people huddled around TV sets in their Traverse City hotel. He saw strangers crying.
"I didn't understand what was going on. I didn't even know how to ask anyone."
Since that baptism of fire, he admits, American life has gotten easier. Having Russian teammates was a huge help. And the language barrier has been useful over the years in dealing with the media. "Most of the time," he says, "nobody comes up to me, and I can do what I need to do."
But there is part of Datsyuk that yearns to be better understood now. Life has forced him to mature. His father died a few years ago of a heart attack while sitting behind the wheel in a parking lot in Russia.
"I only found out after he died how proud he was of me. If I scored or something, he would talk to his friends about it. When I was playing in Russia" during the lockout year "he would call his friends and talk about how this happened or that happened. I never knew this. I found out from those men after he died."
Why didn't you talk more when he was alive?
"I don't know. He never came to watch me play in America."
Did he ever ask for a ticket?
"He never asked."
Do you wish he had gotten to see you before he died?
He swallows, and his face reddens again.
"Him -- and my mom."
So even if he tries to hide it, there is more to Datsyuk than the boyish haircut and the angular face that smirks and smiles. He is a father himself -- of a 6-year-old daughter. He is a rich man -- in the midst of a $47-million contract -- yet he's wise enough to quote an old Russian expression, "A happy person is the one who doesn't need anything." He is lightning quick on the ice, yet off the ice he often parks in the farthest spot, saying he misses the days in Russia when he used to have to walk everywhere.
And when I ask him the greatest moment of his hockey career, he says, "When I got injured in Russia." When pressed to explain, he says, "Because that is when I learned to appreciate how much I love the game."
His opponents would prefer he love it a little less. He is about to attack them in force starting tonight, as the Wings begin their defense of the Stanley Cup facing Columbus -- a team against which Datsyuk has notched 50 points in 37 career games.
What do you want people to know about you that they don't, I ask him?
"I am 5-foot-11 and weigh 190," he says, laughing. "No, I don't really like compliments. I don't think I am as good as I can be. I don't want to make a commercial about myself. Please."
OK then.
No commercial. No ugly duckling story. Just a curtain lifted on a guy who has been a sports fixture for eight years in this town, and deserves a moment to explain himself -- in his own words. You see an amazing performer when you watch Pavel Datsyuk buzz around the ice. But from this point on, I, for one, will see a lot more. And I only wish I had found a translator a few years earlier.
Additional Facts
Meet Pavs or Dats
Who: Pavel Valerievich Datsyuk, a Red Wings center.
Size: 5-feet-11, 190 pounds.
Shoots: Left.
Born: July 20, 1978, Sverdlovsk (now Yekaterinburg), Russia.
Drafted: Sixth round (171st overall) by Wings in 1998.
Debut: Oct. 4, 2001, at San Jose.
On the ice: Selke Trophy for best defensive forward (2008). Lady Byng for gentlemanly play (2006-08). Twice won Stanley Cup (2002, '08). Signed seven-year contract, longest in club history at the time, in April 2007. Led Wings in scoring four straight years (2006-09) -- a feat accomplished only by Gordie Howe and Steve Yzerman.
On the Web: www.datsyuk13.com.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Not much of a train
ia said... (i'm patiently waiting too. I jumped off the rally train too early)
Allan says:
What train?
Patience my friends. Today's final hour bar generated a short-term Buy on BW's trend model. Looks to me like a few more regular trading hours and the FBS is going to be rolling over toward a Sell signal. If it does and if its confirmed by BW, it may represent our first stab at a significant decline.
That's two big "ifs," in case anyone is counting.
A
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
It happens
I posted this on my Anti-Cramer blog tonight along with a Market Club video. The S&P is straggling up the lower trend line and will either fall like hell out of the channel or fool us all and run to the upper trend line. All we can do is follow here as there is no high probability trade either way. It happens.
A
Congrats!
An avid reader has pointed out to me that AllAllan has now exceed 500,000 hits since inception.
The accolades belong to you, the readers of my blog, for your continued support and interest in my work and observations of the human-economic-psychological conditions of our time.
My goals here continue to be to entertain and amuse, while providing market insights that will make everyone better traders/investors, without having to resort to collecting subscriptions to survive, since if my counsel is any good at all, it should be the lone generator of income, with enough left over to cover my time writing. My intention is to make a killing along the way, be it NNVC, or the coming crash, or whatever I come up with next to make a difference in everyone's lives.
A real difference, a seven figure difference.
Speaking of which, I intend to make The Anti-Cramer site more active, so you might want to check it out on occasion for Triangle-related trades and posts.
Again, kudos to all, for bookmarking, reading and supporting these words.
A
The accolades belong to you, the readers of my blog, for your continued support and interest in my work and observations of the human-economic-psychological conditions of our time.
My goals here continue to be to entertain and amuse, while providing market insights that will make everyone better traders/investors, without having to resort to collecting subscriptions to survive, since if my counsel is any good at all, it should be the lone generator of income, with enough left over to cover my time writing. My intention is to make a killing along the way, be it NNVC, or the coming crash, or whatever I come up with next to make a difference in everyone's lives.
A real difference, a seven figure difference.
Speaking of which, I intend to make The Anti-Cramer site more active, so you might want to check it out on occasion for Triangle-related trades and posts.
Again, kudos to all, for bookmarking, reading and supporting these words.
A
Monday, April 13, 2009
Scragged
Scragged.
The state of being disgruntled, upset; messed up, sloppy; frazzled, incredibly messed up.
(1) My girlfriend moved out, my dog bit me and my plants all died. I am too scragged to move.
(2) I got caught in a rainstorm the other day, and I looked like a scragged little puppy.
(3) The S&P 500 for the past six weeks:
I can tell my the tenor of your Comments that a lot of folks are having trouble with this market. When this rally ends (and there are now five countable waves up) there will be a whopper of a decline. That's where the easy money will be made. Not now, not in the throws of Scraggle Toothed markets like today.
When?
Between now and the awarding of the 2009 Stanley Cup.
The playoffs start Wednesday night. Thursday for the Red Wings.
You dudes be watching.
A
The state of being disgruntled, upset; messed up, sloppy; frazzled, incredibly messed up.
(1) My girlfriend moved out, my dog bit me and my plants all died. I am too scragged to move.
(2) I got caught in a rainstorm the other day, and I looked like a scragged little puppy.
(3) The S&P 500 for the past six weeks:
I can tell my the tenor of your Comments that a lot of folks are having trouble with this market. When this rally ends (and there are now five countable waves up) there will be a whopper of a decline. That's where the easy money will be made. Not now, not in the throws of Scraggle Toothed markets like today.
When?
Between now and the awarding of the 2009 Stanley Cup.
The playoffs start Wednesday night. Thursday for the Red Wings.
You dudes be watching.
A
Sunday, April 12, 2009
The coming crash
If you couldn't tell by the time stamp of my previous post, I was up very late Saturday. All was not lost as besides the beautiful song by Fink, I came across a fascinating piece by Tyler Durdan of Zero Hedge. It explains in technical detail the anatomy of recent market meltdowns and why another one is in our immediate future.
One characteristic of what I am labeling a "Wave 4" rally over the past month is that so much of the market movement from day to day has been taking place in aftermarket and Globex trading. Huge morning gaps make up most of the price movement, with little if any follow through during regular market trading. This article addresses the dynamics behind this kind of market movement, with a foreboding hypothesis as to where it is leading prices into the not-to-distant future.
The article is linked above, but here are some salient excerpts:
The solace taken in all this, the dire prognostications by Durden in his article, is that whatever the outcome, my tools described in great detail in Weekly Analytics, should capture most if not all of the ensuing price volatility.
A
One characteristic of what I am labeling a "Wave 4" rally over the past month is that so much of the market movement from day to day has been taking place in aftermarket and Globex trading. Huge morning gaps make up most of the price movement, with little if any follow through during regular market trading. This article addresses the dynamics behind this kind of market movement, with a foreboding hypothesis as to where it is leading prices into the not-to-distant future.
The article is linked above, but here are some salient excerpts:
In this light, the program trading spike over the past week could be perceived as much more sinister. For conspiracy lovers, long searching for any circumstantial evidence to catch the mysterious "plunge protection team" in action, you should look no further than this.
Following on the circumstantial evidence track, as Zero Hedge pointed out previously, over the past month, the Volume Weighted Average Price of the SPY index indicates that the bulk of the upswing has been done through low volume buying on the margin and from overnight gaps in afterhours market trading. The VWAP of the SPY through yesterday indicated that the real price of the S&P 500 would be roughly 60 points lower, or about 782, if the low volume marginal transactions had been netted out.
What retail investors fail to acknowledge is that the quants close out a majority of their ultra-short term positions at the end of each trading day, meaning that the vanilla money is stuck as a hot potato bagholder to what can only be classified as an unprecedented ponzi scheme. As the overall market volume is substantially lower now than it has been in the recent past, this strategy has in fact been working and will likely continue to do so... until it fails and we witness a repeat of the August 2007 quant failure events... at which point the market, just like Madoff, will become the emperor revealing its utter lack of clothing.
When the quant deleveraging finally catches up with the market, the consequences will likely be unprecedented, with dramatic dislocations leading the market both higher and lower on record volatility. Furthermore, high convexity names such as double and triple negative ETFs, which are massively disbalanced with regard to underlying values after recent trading patterns, will see shifts which will make the November SRS jump to $250 seem like child's play.
At the end of the day, despite the pronouncements by the administration and more and more sell-side analysts that the market is merely chasing the rebound in fundamentals in what has all of a sudden become a V-shaped recovery, the "rally" could simply be explained by technical factor driven capital-liquidity aberrations, which will continue at most for mere weeks if not days.
So when will all this occur? The quant trader I spoke to would not commit himself to any specific time frame but noted that a date as early as next Monday could be a veritable D-day.
The solace taken in all this, the dire prognostications by Durden in his article, is that whatever the outcome, my tools described in great detail in Weekly Analytics, should capture most if not all of the ensuing price volatility.
A
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